UFC 303 is taking place on Saturday from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and the card is headlined by a light heavyweight title rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka. Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 was put together on very short notice to replace the original main event, which was supposed to be Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler. A late injury to McGregor forced the fight to get pulled from the card.

The co-main event has also experienced a late shakeup, as Jamahal Hill was forced to withdraw due to a knee injury. The new co-main event will be Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes. The winner of Ortega vs. Lopes could be next in line for a featherweight title shot.

DraftKings is hosting a big UFC 303 fantasy MMA tournament that pays out $700,000 in total prizes, including $200,000 to first place. Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $700K UFC 303 Special [$200K to 1st].

Studs

Payton Talbott ($9,800)

Talbott is an exciting prospect in the bantamweight division, and Talbott’s striking has been very impressive. Through three fights under the UFC’s umbrella, Talbott has landed more than twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed, an elite ratio, and has landed about eight significant strikes per minute, the best rate on the slate.

Talbott is a seismic -1600 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook for his bout against Yanis Ghemmouri, which makes him by far the biggest favorite on the slate. Talbott is widely expected to win his matchup, which makes him a very safe fantasy play. Talbott’s fast striking pace also gives him fantasy scoring upside.

Alex Pereira ($8,500)

Pereira beat Prochazka in their first fight roughly seven months ago. In that fight, Pereira landed a short left hook to drop Prochazka to his knees and then finished Prochazka with downward elbows as a hurt Prochazka was hunting a takedown.

Prior to the finish, Prochazka used pressure to back Pereira up into the octagon fence, which inhibited Pereira’s distance management. Pereira’s striking defense is primarily based on using his length to stay out of range, and by backing Pereira up near the fence, Prochazka was able to keep Pereira in striking range and land some good strikes. Prochazka pressuring forward also helped reduce the impact of Pereira’s calf kicks, which are one of Pereira’s best weapons.

However, Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC, and by pressuring forward, Prochazka was open to return fire. Pereira has arguably the greatest left hook in the history of MMA, and it was this left hook that set off the finishing sequence. Defensively, Prochazka is prone to keeping his hands low, which makes him hittable when he closes the distance to throw strikes. This shows up in Prochazka’s striking metrics—Prochazka has avoided just 41% of opponent significant strike attempts, which is a poor rate. Poor striking defense against a striker as lethal as Alex Pereira is not a recipe for success. Prochazka is also not a great offensive wrestler, so it will be difficult for him to attack Pereira’s biggest weakness, which is his wrestling.

Pereira’s fantasy scoring upside is generally limited by not blending offensive grappling into his game, but he has a very winnable matchup and is in a good position to return a solid fantasy performance.

Value Play

Macy Chiasson ($7,400)

Despite Chiasson’s fight against Mayra Bueno Silva being close to a pick’em on DraftKings Sportsbook, Chiasson enters this matchup as the sixth-cheapest fighter on the slate at $7,400, which represents a potential value play in the pricing. As reflected in the betting odds, Chiasson has a winnable matchup against Bueno Silva. Chiasson has a better strikes landed to absorbed ratio, and Bueno Silva has also absorbed more strikes than she has landed, which is a red flag in her striking metrics.

Chiasson is capable of recording strong fantasy performances and has scored over 100 DraftKings fantasy points in six of her last seven wins. This fantasy scoring has been fueled in part by offensive grappling. Chiasson leads the women’s bantamweight division in control time percentage at 42%, and Chiasson has recorded over two takedowns per 15 minutes, a solid rate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: UFC $700K UFC 303 Special [$200K to 1st]

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.