Fantasy Baseball Picks Today: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Targets, Values for July 20
Zach Thompson gives his top studs and value plays for Saturday’s fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings.
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After taking a break early in the week for the All-Star game, baseball is back this Saturday night with nine games on the main slate in what should be a great night for fantasy baseball. With the trade deadline looming and pennant races shaping up, Major League Baseball is entering a fascinating and exciting stretch over the next few weeks. Three of the nine matchups on Saturday are divisional tilts including the Rockies welcoming the Giants to Coors Field in an NL West matchup. It’s always important to watch Coors Field for offense, but there are plenty of options to consider from the other games as well.
Whether you opt to stack one team or go for variety, there are many ways to attack this slate and assemble a winning roster. As you break down the slate, Check out my top studs and values for Saturday night.
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PITCHER
Stud
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros ($9,000) – In a key AL West series, the Mariners host the Astros, and the two teams begin the day tied for first place after Houston’s 3-0 victory on Friday. Kirby will take the mound looking to serve as Seattle’s stopper, and he has been very solid lately, turning in seven straight quality starts. In his last nine outings, he is 3-2 with a 2.11 ERA, 1.88 FIP and 59 strikeouts over 55 1⁄3 innings. He shut down the Astros to start that string of success, totaling 23.9 fantasy points by throwing six innings with eight strikeouts and just one earned run allowed. Kirby has at least seven strikeouts in three of his last four starts, including last Saturday’s loss to the Angels. He didn’t get any run support but still finished with 22.5 fantasy points since he allowed just three hits in six innings. Kirby’s matchup isn’t ideal against the surging Astros, but he has been throwing well enough to be my favorite stud play on this slate, especially since he has proven he can dominate in this specific matchup.
Value
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants ($5,700) – It’s a high-risk move, but going with Freeland at this incredibly low salary gives you plenty of salary to spend on power bats. The 31-year-old lefty has shown enough recent form to bring enough upside to be worth a look under $6,000 even though he’s at Coors Field. Freeland has only one win on the season, and he missed two months with an elbow strain. Since returning, though, he has been excellent, posting at least 19 fantasy points in three of his four games and only allowing a total of four runs while going at least six innings in each start. In the four games, he has a 1.71 ERA, 3.13 FIP and 7.2 K/9. He showed his strikeout upside with a season-high nine punchouts last Wednesday against the Reds, earning his lone win of the year and 27.6 fantasy points. Freeland has an impressive 1.50 ERA and 2.61 FIP at Coors Field this season, and he relies on his sinker when he’s at his best, which usually keeps the ball in the yard. Stacking the Giants will be a popular play, but Freeland makes a great contrarian play to that stack, and he doesn’t have to do much to be an outstanding value at this salary.
INFIELD
Stud
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox ($6,300) – While his loss in the Home Run Derby was a disappointment, he and the Royals went right back to work on Friday, and Witt went 3-for-3 and smashed his 17th homer of the season on his way to 26 fantasy points. He has multiple ways to have a big game with elite power and speed, and he’ll be in another favorable matchup against Jonathan Cannon ($6,300) and the White Sox. Witt has a .328 batting average and .398 wOBA on the season and has added 22 stolen bases to those 17 home runs. The 24-year-old is on pace for multiple career bests and continues to emerge as one of the best young stars in baseball.
Stud
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs ($5,500) – Marte battled a back issue earlier this month, but when he has been available, he has been excellent. While he did play in the All-Star game, leading off for the National League, he should still benefit from a few days off. Marte has multiple hits in each of his last five starts and has hit .377 (23-for-61) over his last 16 games with three homers, three stolen bases and an average of 11.3 fantasy points per game. Like Witt, Marte has both speed and power potential, making him a strong fantasy option when he’s going well, as he has been lately. Marte and the Dbacks should be in a good spot against Kyle Hendricks ($5,200), who is the cheapest starting pitcher on the slate.
Value
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves ($3,900) – After a rough start to the season, the veteran Arenado has rounded into form as the Cardinals climbed back over .500. While his power numbers are still down, Arenado is hitting .270 on the year after going 15-for-42 (.385) over his last 10 games with one home run, a .402 wOBA and an average of 8.6 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals and Braves were rained out on Friday, so the second game of their doubleheader is on the main slate when the Cards are scheduled to face Bryce Elder ($7,600). Six of Arenado’s eight homers have come against righties like Elder this season, and he has a .325 wOBA in the split.
Value
Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles ($3,300) – Lowe went yard in his first game back after the break on Friday night for the Rangers’ only run in their 9-1 loss to the Orioles. He missed much of the first half of the season but is rounding into form, hitting .290 with five homers and a .374 wOBA over his last 18 games. On Saturday night, he will face Grayson Rodriguez ($9,400), who has flashed upside but has also been very inconsistent. Getting Lowe at this affordable salary in a good lineup is a strong option to fill 1B if you spend up to get stars in the middle infield.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians vs. San Diego Padres ($5,300) – Kwan leads the MLB with a .354 batting average just ahead of Bobby Witt. The Guardians’ leadoff hitter missed some time with a hamstring injury earlier this season, but he seems to be past that now and may be ready to be more aggressive on the bases. He stole a base in his final game before the break and added his sixth stolen base of the season on Friday as part of his contributions to the Guardians’ 7-0 win, finishing with 13 fantasy points. Kwan is 16-for-49 (.327) over his last 12 games with a pair of home runs and a .364 wOBA. The Guardians face Dylan Cease ($9,700) on Saturday, who they know well from his time in the AL Central. Kwan went 7-for-19 (.368) against him in their past meetings with two walks, a double and a triple.
Stud
Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants ($4,800) – If you go with Freeland and don’t stack Giants, there is still a way to get in on the offense at Coors Field by backing the Rockies. Doyle has been one of Colorado’s best hitters recently, and the 26-year-old righty has shown vast improvement after breaking into the bigs last season. Doyle is hitting .279 with a .355 wOBA on the year but has been significantly better in July. In his 14 games this month, Doyle went 21-for-49 (.429) with nine home runs, 17 RBI, a stolen base and a .640 wOBA. He homered on Friday in his return from the break and has hit .350 with a .429 wOBA at Coors Field. He brings a great ceiling from under $5,000 and is almost a “must-play” at elevation since he has been so hot at home especially lately.
Value
Adam Frazier, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox ($2,900) – Frazier was a very popular play on Friday since he hit leadoff for the Royals against the White Sox. The veteran went 0-for-4, though, with a pair of strikeouts, so there may be some backlash against going back to him for a second straight day. He does bring great potential from that leadoff spot, though, in a favorable matchup against Cannon, who has struggled against lefties, giving up a .316 average and .407 wOBA in the split. Frazier is only hitting .206 on the season, but the Royals like his veteran leadership and on-base ability at the top of their order. If he stays in that spot Saturday, it’s worth going back to the well one more time. He brings added flexibility since he is also eligible at 3B as well as in the OF.
Value
Victor Robles, Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros ($2,300) – Robles is an even cheaper outfield option that brings good upside. After being cut by the Nationals, the 27-year-old righty landed in Seattle, where he has been used in the outfield, especially against lefties like Framber Valdez ($7,900). Robles had two hits on Friday and is 13-for-34 (.382) in his 23 games with the Mariners. He has four doubles, four stolen bases and a home run and has made the most of his sporadic playing time. With Dominic Canzone (adductor) landing on IL, Robles should have the opportunity to pick up more time in the next few weeks, and he has a great ceiling for a player this cheap since he brings a little pop and good speed to the table. The Mariners lineup has needed a spark, and Robles may get a chance to contribute that on Saturday.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Zach has been part of the DraftKings team since 2017 and covers baseball, basketball, golf, football and any other sport that offers DFS fun. He has been playing fantasy sports since box scores were only available in the newspaper the following day. Even though he grew up almost 8,000 miles away in Guam, he is a diehard Boston sports fan but will take a fantasy value play wherever he can get it, even if it’s from the Yankees.
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