:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73366129/1435667368.0.jpg)
UFC 302 is taking place on Saturday, June 1 from Newark, New Jersey. The card is headlined by a lightweight title bout between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier. Makhachev is one of the most dominant fighters in the entire sport and has won 13 consecutive UFC fights, tied for the third-longest winning streak in UFC history. Makhachev is officially listed as the top-ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC’s athlete rankings. Poirier is looking to capture an undisputed UFC title for the first time. Poirier has previously held the interim UFC lightweight title but is 0-2 in undisputed UFC title fights.
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
UFC 302 Picks
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Islam Makhachev is a monstrous offensive wrestler who has one of the most elite top games in the sport. Makhachev’s elite wrestling shows up in his statistics, finishing 60% of his takedown attempts and stopping 90% of opponent takedown attempts, which both rank in the top 10 among all active UFC fighters. Makhachev’s control time percentage of 48% and top position time of 41% are also excellent.
Because Makhachev is so good at smothering his opponents with offensive grappling, he barely absorbs any strikes. Makhachev has absorbed just over one significant strike per minute, fourth-best among all active UFC fighters. Makhachev does not allow many opportunities for opponents to land strikes on him because they are often too busy fighting for their lives to defend his takedowns and survive his top game. Makhachev’s positional dominance also helps him land strikes efficiently. Makhachev has landed 61% of his significant strike attempts, sixth-best among all active UFC fighters.
Dustin Poirier is one of the most accomplished lightweights in UFC history. Poirier has notable wins over fighters such as Max Holloway, Conor McGregor, Eddie Alvarez and Justin Gaethje, and most recently stopped rising lightweight Benoit Saint Denis with an impressive KO/TKO finish. Poirier is one of the best fighters in UFC history to never hold an undisputed UFC title.
Like Makhachev, Poirier also stands southpaw, which is notable because Poirier’s best strike is arguably his right hook. The right hook from a southpaw onto another southpaw can be a highly effective strike because the lead defensive shoulder is on the opposite side of the hook, giving more clearance to find the chin. Poirier most notably flattened southpaws Conor McGregor and Benoit Saint Denis with this right hook. It’s also notable that Makhachev’s only career loss was via KO/TKO due to a right hook from a southpaw. If Poirier is going to win this fight, he will likely have to keep this fight at distance and force Makhachev into a striking match, where he can look to land that right hook on Makhachev’s open side.
His last performance out was one of the best of his career @DustinPoirier is coming for the lightweight belt at #UFC302 pic.twitter.com/IpkJBYxhrr
— UFC (@ufc) May 22, 2024
Ultimately, Makhachev’s offensive grappling will likely make it difficult for Poirier to get off much distance striking in this fight. Poirier is a good overall grappler but does not have great takedown defense, stopping 63% of opponent takedown attempts. Poirier also tends to commit to guillotine chokes when defending takedowns, which can be difficult to finish and often result in getting stuck in bottom position.
This fight could look similar to Poirier’s fight against Makhachev’s friend and training partner, Khabib Nurmagomedov. In that fight, Nurmagomedov took Poirier down seven times on eight attempts, racked up nearly nine minutes of control time in 12 minutes, and submitted Poirier with a rear-naked choke after getting to his back.
If Makhachev can secure a dominant position on the ground, he has the finishing skills to end this fight with a submission. Makhachev is tied for ninth in submission wins among active UFC fighters with six wins by submission. Makhachev has also displayed the ability to submit high-level grapplers, which was best on display when he submitted jiu-jitsu black belt Charles Oliveira with an arm-triangle choke. Poirier has also been vulnerable to getting submitted by high-level grapplers—two of Poirier’s last three losses are by submission due to a rear-naked choke.
DraftKings Sportsbook Bet to Consider:
Islam Makhachev To Win By Submission
Odds: +110
Place your UFC bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.