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We’re in a rut. Now, that doesn’t mean that we’re snakebitten and can’t win a single bet, but the entirety of June as been pretty mediocre for the MLB wagers presented in this article. In fact, after another 1-1 record on Monday, we’re sitting at exactly 7-7 (-0.5u) for the month.
Let’s try and break out of this slump tonight. Let’s end June in the black with a couple winners.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox
Under 8 (-105)
It’s a little scary to take an under in a Dodgers game, but the fact of the matter is that Los Angeles is just 39-41-1 to the over in 2024. This also isn’t the same Dodgers lineup we envisioned back in March. Mookie Betts and Max Muncy are sidelined with injury, while Teoscar Hernandez has been away from the team this week to deal with a personal matter back home in the Dominican. Hernandez should be back in the lineup this evening, but I’d expect Will Smith to sit after catching the past three contests. That leaves a relatively underwhelming collection of bats in the lower two-thirds of the order.
Still, none of this would matter if the White Sox didn’t have one of their two aces on the hill. Erick Fedde has been incredible for Chicago in his first year back from dominating the KBO, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and a 3.40 xERA across his 16 starts. The numbers are even more impressive when you lop off his first three outings of the season. Over his last 79.2 innings, Fedde has maintained a 2.82 ERA and a 2.88 FIP with a respectable 22.4% strikeout rate. He’s been rock solid and, if Garrett Crochet didn’t exist, Fedde would probably be an All-Star.
Gavin Stone has been equally as good the past two months, registering a 2.18 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP across his last 10 starts for the Dodgers. He should have little issue keeping the good times going against a White Sox lineup that ranks dead-last in ISO over the last 14 days (.110). Chicago’s .270 wOBA and 72 wRC+ in that same span sit 28th in baseball.
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New York Yankees at New York Mets
Yankees ML (-125)
Look, I’m not here to discount the Grimace Mets. There’s been magic in the air ever since that tubby, purple triangle threw out the first pitch at Citi Field a couple weeks back. However, this does not profile as an ideal spot for New York’s little brother franchise on Wednesday night. I mean, you don’t really have to dig much deeper than the starting pitching matchup.
While Luis Gil finally had a dud outing in his last time out, the RHP has been otherworldly since the beginning of May, pitching to a 2.22 ERA and a 3.10 FIP with a 27.8% strikeout rate. On the other side, Sean Manaea has struggled immensely in June, registering an inflated 6.75 ERA and surrendering 1.80 opponent home runs per nine. The Yankees enter Wednesday’s action sitting second in MLB in long balls (117) and third in ISO (.180). If there was a lineup designed to take advantage of Manaea’s flaws, it’s this one — specifically Aaron Judge, who leads all qualified AL bats in expected wOBA versus LHPs (.487).
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.