MLB Picks for June 29: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Three months of Major League Baseball are in the books. It’s time to attack the sportsbooks. Let’s look at some of the best bets for the Saturday, June 29 MLB betting card.

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.

Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!

View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*

*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.

• Bet at DraftKings Sportsbook

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves

The Pick: Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)

Is Paul Skenes Day still a thing? DraftKings adjusted the Monday DFS slate to include unnecessary 6 p.m. games. The early hour featured Pittsburgh and Paul. It’s still a thing. You’re reading this. It’s still a thing. So what’s the skinny on Skenes-y? How is the phenom holding up? Better than expected. In eight starts (46.1 innings), Skenes has put up stunning numbers — 11.9 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 2.25 xFIP (2.25 ERA), 27.8% Hard Contact, 44.5% Ground Ball Rate and a 90% Strand Rate. He does everything.

The only case against Skenes is the matchup. Seven of Skenes’ eight starts have been soft. That’s not Skenes’ fault. Skenes doesn’t schedule the series. He just strikes them out. Even in his worst and toughest outing (three earned runs in five innings), Skenes struck out eight Dodgers. The Braves’ offense had come to life, but they have cooled off over the last week — 25% K-Rate, .112 ISO, .266 wOBA and 69 wRC+.

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners

The Pick: Pablo Lopez Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Ignore the traditional stats. That’s not who Pablo Lopez is. His 7-6 record and 5.11 ERA are misleading. The 28-year-old is having a breakout season. What’s the role of a pitcher? It’s to get batters out. There are two ways. Do it on your own or rely on your fielders — and the gods. Some batted balls fall, some fall in gloves and some balls fall over walls. The BABIP Gods have been kind to Lopez (.298), but the home runs have hurt — 16 home runs in 16 starts (1.6 HR/9). There is a tendency to blame home runs on the pitcher. It’s fair but it’s also not always the case. That’s why most of the advanced metrics do not include home run data. Lopez is only allowing 28% hard contact. He’s striking out 27.5% of hitters while walking 5.2% and holding them to a .243 batting average.

Lopez stopped playing around in his last start. It was a “Fine, I’ll do it myself moment.” Lopez pitched eight scoreless innings. He allowed two hits and struck out 14 A’s. When it comes to Ks, few K like the A’s. There is one team that is worse — Seattle. The Mariners win games (47-37, first in AL West), but it’s ugly — 28% K-Rate, .148 ISO and .298 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching.

Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels

The Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-125)

Stats are suspicious. Some stats say it all. Skenes’ stats leave nothing to mystery. Skenes makes sense. Pablo Lopez’s talent is shrouded. Home runs and a below-average strand rate make Lopez’s traditional stats look poor. Reese Olson is 2-8. That doesn’t look great, but his ERA is 3.35. His wins-and-loss record should be inverted with that elite ERA. The problem is the Tigers. Olson’s run support is historically low — 31 runs in 14 starts that’s 2.2 runs per game. Olson needs an impossible 2.30 ERA to win games — or he needs a good matchup.

Olson won his last start. It was a soft matchup. He held the White Sox to two runs and the Tigers scored 11 runs. The run support number above does not include the White Sox game. It’s a little misleading but it drives home the point. Olson is good. He just needs a little help from his friends. Olson will shutdown the Angels — 23% K-Rate, .150 ISO, .301 wOBA and 92 wRC+ vs. RHP. Will his friends score? The Tigers wont plate 11, but they’ll score on Griffin Canning — 4.72 ERA (4.80 xFIP).

Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @Race4thePrize.

place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800- GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (AZ/CO/IA/IL/IN/KS/KY/LA/MD/ME/MI/NC/NJ/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/VT/WV/WY), (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-522-4700 (NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV). Void where prohibited. 21+ (18+ KY/NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/KY/LA(select parishes)/MA/MD/ME/MI/NC/NH/NJ/NY/OH/OR/PA/TN/VA/VT/WV/WY only. Void in ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).