MLB Picks Today: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for July 10

Monday marked my seventh straight MLB betting article where I went 1-1 on my plays. Seven. Straight. We’re still sitting at 33-22 (+10.0u) for the season as a whole, but I can’t quite shake the feeling that I’m jinxed. Maybe, at some point, I’ll have to go full George Costanza and start picking the opposite sides.

We’re not quite there yet, though. Let’s earnestly and honestly dive into tonight’s action on the diamond.

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Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

Under 9 (+100)

I made this exact same bet on Monday and it cashed. So, why mess with a good thing? Especially when neither of these lineups has mustered all that much with the bat across the past two weeks. Within that span, by a considerable margin, the Rockies own baseball’s lowest wRC+ (64). The Reds haven’t been much better, checking in with a 92 wRC+ and a .218 batting average that ranks 27th in all of baseball. We know that Colorado has struggled to score runs outside of Coors Field, and Cincinnati is following suit.

It’s worth noting tonight’s pitching matchup, as well. Kyle Freeland hasn’t been at the forefront of anyone’s mind since his incredible 2018 campaign, yet the veteran LHP has looked great since returning from a lengthy IL stay back in late June. In the three starts he’s made since getting healthy, Freeland’s pitched to a 1.37 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP over 19.2 innings. That recent run includes 13.0 innings of one-run ball on away from Colorado.

Frankie Montas is another man chasing the highs of his younger self. Montas missed all of 2023 due to injury then inked a “prove it” deal with the Reds this offseason. While it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the 31-year-old, the right-hander has managed a 3.56 ERA since the beginning of June, holding opponents to a .193/.294/.367 slash line in the process. I wouldn’t consider Freeland or Montas an ace, but both have the capability to put together strong outings on Wednesday — keeping this tilt low scoring.

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Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles

Orioles -1.5 (+114)

In general, it’s not been bad business to bet the Orioles on the run line with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Baltimore has covered 56.0% of its games for the season — the second-best mark in MLB — and that figure jumps up to 61.1% (11-7) when its newly acquired ace is toeing the rubber. It’s not difficult to see why. Though Burnes’ strikeout rate has fallen for the fourth consecutive campaign, the RHP has been dominant in an Orioles uniform, registering a 2.32 ERA and a 3.00 xERA across 112.2 innings of work. Burnes has been even better when specifically at Camden Yards, possessing a 1.78 ERA and a 2.92 FIP. Any way you slice it, the 29-year-old remains one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the world.

“Consistent” is key. It’s the main difference between Burnes and his opponent on Wednesday: Shota Imanaga. The lefty began his MLB tenure with some astonishing results, but Imanaga has struggled recently to find that same level of success. The biggest issue? Home runs. The exact red flag that most pointed to coming into 2024 with the Japanese All-Star. When Imanaga posted a 0.84 ERA over his first nine starts of the season, he was surrendering just 0.50 opponent long balls per nine. In his last seven outings, a stretch where Imanaga’s ERA is an ugly 6.51, the southpaw is conceding an eye-popping 2.17 home runs per nine. That’s a huge flaw under all circumstances, yet particularly when facing Baltimore. The Orioles lead MLB in home runs (147) and ISO (.203).

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.