College Football Best Bets: Odds, Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Michigan Wolverines

After winning the Big Ten for the third consecutive year, Michigan finally got over the hump last season. The Wolverines made the College Football Playoff’s four-team field for the third straight time, but didn’t bow out early and won the National Championship. So natually, I’ll fade them in 2024. Here’s my play on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!

View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*

*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.

• Bet at DraftKings Sportsbook

To Make The Playoffs: Michigan Wolverines: NO (-140) — 1.5-units

I understand it can be an uncomfortable feeling going against the defending champs — particularly when Michigan just reached the CFP’s four-team field three times in a row, and now we’re betting it to miss a 12-team field. That said, it cannot be overstated just how much the Wolverines have lost from their championship squad.

I was shocked to see a lot of notable preseason publications include Michigan in their top-12, and the betting market seems to suggest Michigan is being overrated. The Wolverines saw their win total open up 9.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and consistently took money to the under, to the point it was priced at -215.

As of July 17, DraftKings Sportsbook sits a nine flat on Michigan’s win total, yet it’s still heavily juiced to the under at -135. If you glance around the marketplace, you’ll even find some shops that are offering the Wolverines at 8.5 wins. Every single team ahead of Michigan in the CFP odds, as well as a handful of teams with longer odds, all have win totals of at least 9.5.

Of course, it’s not just about wins with this 12-team field. Michigan is in a very tough Big Ten Conference, but it’s difficult to imagine we see many (if any) teams with less than 10 wins compete in the CFP.

This is going to be a pretty significant rebuild for the Wolverines, who obviously have to recover from Jim Harbaugh’s departure to the NFL. Sherrone Moore is a respectable replacement, but he’s taking over the helm of a team that just lost 13 players to the NFL, and will return only seven starters.

In Phil Steele’s experience rankings, he has Michigan going from seventh in experience in 2023 to just 117th in 2024. That means we’re going to see a lot of players stepping into much larger/unfamiliar roles, while playing an extremely competitive schedule.

The Wolverines will be underdogs at least three times this season — vs. Texas, vs. Oregon and at Ohio State. Losing those three games alone could be enough to force them out of playoff contention, but if they slip up in another game, the CFP would be completely out of the question.

While the defense will keep Michigan in games, this offense could really struggle — to the degree Michigan suffers an embarrassing upset somewhere along the way. While 9-3 seems likely, I don’t think that’ll be good enough. As the market suggests, an eight-win team seems far more likely than 10, which really works against the Wolverines’ chances to get in.

This market opened up with Michigan -110 to miss the CFP, and while the bets are balanced at 50% on each side, the number has shifted due to 85% of the money on the “NO” option. I agree with the money — Michigan won’t get a chance to defend its title in 2024.

Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!

View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*

*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.

• Bet at DraftKings Sportsbook

Place your College Football bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.

The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.