MLB Bets: Systems bettors should note

One important thing to note before digging into specific systems: The Systems tool in the DraftKings Stats Hub now allows you to filter systems by team and not solely by grading. Here’s what the different views looks like:

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SYSTEM: Under on total when AL is home vs. NL

Over the last seven days, an American League team has hosted a National league team on 18 occasions. The under hit in two-thirds of those games (12). This recent spike has boosted this system’s season-long performance a bit, but it’s also not the first bit of success the play has experienced throughout 2024. Since Opening Day, this play is 97-74-11.

Two games fit this system on Tuesday:

• NYY vs. CIN
• TEX vs. SD

The Rangers have been one of the best teams to the under this season, going 48-34-2 to the play. At home, Texas is even better to the under, going 26-12-1. Now, the Padres have leaned more toward the other end of the spectrum, entering Tuesday 47-40-1 to the over. Still, not an overwhelming rate. Plus, when playing on the road, San Diego is 22-20 to the under.

To bring it all together, Nathan Eovaldi is on the bump looking to bounce back for Texas while Dylan Cease looks to maintain the momentum he gained in his last start.

SYSTEM PICK FOR JULY 2

TEX-SD under 7.5 runs -108

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SYSTEM: NRFI when home team is favored

This is a very broad system, but it’s sitting nicely at 454-361 (55.71%). Similar to the game total system above, there has been a significant spike recently. Over the last seven days, this system is 33-20 (62.26%).

This system fits a whopping 10 games on Tuesday:

• PIT vs. STL
• CLE vs. CWS
• NYY vs. CIN
• TOR vs. HOU
• ATL vs. SF
• MIN vs. DET
• TEX vs. SD
• CHC vs. PHI
• KC vs. TB
• LAD vs. ARI

Using the NRFI/YRFI tool in the Stats Hub, we see the Jays are one of the best teams to NRFI at 53-31. Houston, on the other hand, is an even 42-42. But, when the Astros are the underdog, NRFI is 12-9. In the 15 games they’ve been a road dog, NRFI is 9-6.

Looking back at the Jays, NRFI is 28-14 when they’re home and 34-15 when they’re playing as the favorite (regardless of location). When Toronto is specifically playing as a home favorite, NRFI is 23-9.

SYSTEM PICK FOR JULY 2

TOR-HOU NRFI -125

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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.