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Every team will be in action tonight starting at 6:40 p.m. ET. I’ll give you some of my favorite plays you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Rockies Team Total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -125
It’s July 2, 2024. I think this is the first time this season I’ve written up a bet in favor of the Rockies. But, it’s a special occasion, as Dallas Keuchel has somehow made his way back into a major league roster. This will be his second start and the first went as you’d expect. He pitched 4 innings and allowed five runs on eight hits, including two home runs, with four strikeouts and a walk. Now, he’ll be in Coors Field against a Rockies team that can hit sinkers. On the year, tonight’s expected Rockies lineup has a combined .354 wOBA and a .224 ISO against that pitch when thrown by a lefty. Last season with the Twins, Keuchel ended with a .391 wOBA overall against righties and this Rockies lineup will be full of them. The consensus, as you’d imagine, is extremely low on Keuchel. His outs recorded prop is currently set at 14.5 outs, with the under getting -130. I’m more than comfortable taking the over on this run total.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Dodgers Team Total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -125
Another team total I like to go over early is the Dodgers. They’ll be facing the Diamondbacks and Ryne Nelson, who has a 5.69 ERA with an xEA of 5.17. This is the second time he’ll face the Dodgers and somehow came out of that start unscathed through five innings. He did, however, run into trouble in those games, putting on eight base runners. The Dodgers simply weren’t able to cash in. Overall, Nelson has struggled on the mound and has allowed at least four runs in six of his 13 starts. He has really poor numbers against both sides of the plate, with a .328 wOBA against lefties and a .423 (!) against righties. I think we see a much different game out of Nelson tonight and not in his favor.
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Pick: Juan Soto over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
I really like this spot for Soto tonight against Reds starter Graham Ashcraft. He’s really been going through it on the mound lately, allowing at least three runs in seven straight starts, dating back to May 8th. It likely will reach eight straight against the Yankees, who are averaging 6.1 runs over their last five games. As for Soto, he’ll see cutters and sliders from Ashcraft, pitches he’s been handling thus far this season against righties. Against cutters, he has a .432 wOBA with a .304 ISO. Ashcraft has been throwing those 57% of the time. With his struggles against lefties, this should be a great spot for Soto to go over his 1.5 total for hits, runs and RBI. I also included Soto in my Same Game Parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook, which you can see below.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.