MLB Picks for July 20: Baseball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

It’s another sunny summer MLB Saturday and DraftKings Sportsbook offers plenty of ways to play. There are Money Lines, Run Lines and Player Props. Check out the best bets for the Saturday, July 20 MLB betting card.

Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.

Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.

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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

The Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (+130)

On paper, the Yankees’ lineup is terrifying. The top of the order is loaded, but towards the bottom of the paper, it’s not that scary. Stare closer at that paper and you’ll see something. The Yankees’ best hitters strike out a lot against right-handed pitching. Right-handed strikeout specialists can beat the Yankees.

Taj Bradley is young (No. 2 TB Prospect; No. 36 MLB Prospect) and wasn’t great as a rookie, but the prospect took a big step forward this season. His fastball sits in the high 90s. He can blow it past hitters. That’s not new. His splitter is and it’s elite (.198 wOBA against; 31.4% Whiff Rate). His cutter isn’t new but its horizontal break ranks in the 99th percentile this season. Bradley can handle this lineup. Also, Nestor Cortez has won once since May 28 (1-4; 4.17 ERA).

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners

The Pick: Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105)

Houston just pulled ahead of Seattle with their win on Friday. It’s July 20 and the Mariners are still in it. The offense can hit. They get a bad rap because they strike out a lot. They’re decent against sinkers. That’s bad news for Framber Valdez — ground ball specialist. Valdez grounds out hitters and doesn’t bother with strikeouts. He can’t take advantage of the Mariners’ weakness. That’s what the public believes. That’s not what Valdez believes.

Valdez knows when to change pitches. The lineup suggests pocketing the sinker and going heavy on sliders and curves. Seattle ranks toward the bottom against both pitches. The question is whether the sinkerballer will adapt. He did in his last start. Valdez increased his slider use from 2% to 15% and his curve from 22% to 38%. The results were shocking, He struck out 10 Marlins. The slider had a 71% Whiff Rate and his curve generated a 47% Whiff Rate. He registered a 14.7% Swinging Strike Rate. Those numbers were compiled despite registering a 52% First Pitch Strike Rate. Imagine what will happen if Valdez gets ahead of hitters? It’s not hard to imagine against the free-swinging Mariners.

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-108)

Two young, southpaw studs will take the mound in our nation’s capitol on Saturday night. Who will come out on top? Take Lodolo on the road. Lodolo is fine in Cincinnati, but he’s better when a park is more forgiving. His home ERA is 4.05. That number drops to a 2.27 ERA on the road. His wOBA against splits are shocking — .343 Home vs. .218 Away. Lodolo is aggressive on the road.

The Nationals can’t hit lefties and the Reds bats are coming alive. Washington has a .101 ISO, .282 wOBA and 80 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Over the last two weeks, the Reds have the second-best wOBA (.363) and best ISO (.264). Cincinnati has scored the second-most runs (59). MacKenzie Gore can pile up the K’s, but he doesn’t keep runs off the board.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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