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Summer is here and Major League Baseball is in full swing. It’s time to soak in the Sun and get some action at the sportsbook. Let’s look at some of the best bets for the Saturday, July 6 MLB betting card.
Here are my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook picks for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.
Follow along on Twitter (@Race4thePrize) for updates.
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Chicago White Sox at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Garrett Crochet Outs Recorded Over 18.5 (+160)
Is this a mistake? Seven innings is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s Crochet in Miami. His strikeout prop is 8.5. The southpaw pitched seven innings in his last start and struck out 11 Rockies. He’s the best pitcher taking the mound on Saturday. His 2.33 xFIP across 101.1 IP is not just the best mark on Saturday’s betting card — it ranks second in all of baseball just behind Jack Flaherty (2.30 xFIP in 89.0 IP). He’s the best and in the best matchup — and the books don’t think he can make it through seven innings?
Crochett has a 3.07 ERA and he pitches in a hitter’s park. How does he do it? He strikes batters out (12.5 K/9) and rarely gives up free passes (1.78 BB/9). When he does allow contact, it’s a ground ball (44.6%). That recipe works against any team — anywhere. The Marlins do not have an answer against average lefties — 22% K-Rate, .102 ISO, .265 wOBA and 69 wRC+. Over the last week, the fish have been even colder — 27% K-Rate, .123 ISO, .257 wOBA and 64 wRC+.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Padres Moneyline -122
Everyone’s favorite knuckleballer takes the mound on Saturday and will face the Diamondbacks for the third time this season. It could be Matt Waldron’s 100th start and it wouldn’t matter. The knuckle never gets easier. Waldron held the D-Backs to three hits and one run in his rematch on Jun. 8 after a rough outing in early May (seven earned runs). Waldron’s last start was cut short by the long ball in Boston (two home runs in 4.1 IP). This hasn’t been a problem this season (0.86 HR/9) and shouldn’t be a problem on Saturday. In both matchups with Arizona, Waldron held the Diamondbacks’ bats to under a 30% Hard Contact Rate.
Brandon Pfaadt could be a future star. This is the present and not the future. The Fat Man is pitching like Little Boy. The nuke is imploding not exploding. Pfaadt is the D-Backs’ No. 2 prospect but there are always growing pains (unless you’re Paul Skenes). He is growing. His strikeout numbers are impressive and he chews up innings, but he’s allowing too many runs — 4.60 ERA since the end of May. Pfaadt is fine in soft matchups, but he struggles against good offenses. The Padres plated five runs against Pfaadt on Jun. 7.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Corey Seager Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)
Seager is dialed in. He’s hit safely in nine games with four doubles and a home run. He’s been dialed in all season (.342 wOBA and 121 wRC+). His numbers are even better against right-handed pitchers — .219 ISO, .374 wOBA and 142 wRC+. Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas is generally a hitter’s park. Everything sets up well for Seager — even the setup with an exceptional pitcher.
Taj Bradley is not a pitcher to target. His xFIP is 3.44 and the strikeout rate is north of 10 (11.1 K/9). Tampa could win but the rookie flame thrower suffers from the same struggles as similar superstars in the making. Hard thrown pitches get hit hard (1.8 HR/9). Bradley is allowing a 44% Hard Contact Rate against left-handed batters.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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