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The Philadelphia Eagles are widely considered a contender in the NFC this season, but I think calling them that overlooks an abysmal finish to the 2023 season. While bettors have been quick to back this team on DraftKings Sportsbook entering 2024, I’m here to pour some water on the fire.
Eagles UNDER 10.5 Wins (+110) — 2.5-units
Not long ago, back in early December, the Eagles were the defending NFC Champions, and sat in the top-seed in the NFC with a record of 10-1. Things were pretty good. From then on, the team came completely undone, losing five of its final six regular season games, before taking a 32-9 pounding in Tampa Bay to get immediately bounced from the postseason.
The 1-6 finish to the season exposed a lot of holes. The Eagles will be with new offensive and defensive coordinators to begin the season. The offensive line might not have been as strong as we thought, and now will have to learn how to operate without Jason Kelce under center. And the defense proved to be dreadful, ranking 30th in points allowed by season’s end.
When you go back and breakdown the season, maybe the Eagles were never all that good to begin with? Eight of Philly’s 11 wins were by one-possession, perhaps indicating a little bit of luck that could swing the other way this season.
The Eagles are doing their best to cover up their problems. For example, spending their first two draft picks on defensive backs helps address a need. But I’m just not convinced it’ll all come together quickly enough to for this team to get back to 11 wins.
Philly plays a pretty tough schedule (top-10 difficulty), and I would not be surprised at all to see it playing right around .500. That said, bettors are backing this team to go over its win total in the early going — 83% of the bets at DraftKings Sportsbook on the over (as of July 8), which has moved us to plus-money on the under. That seven game stretch to end last season suggests this team has a lot of work to do, so I’ll take the discount and get a little contrarian here.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 1100.5 Rushing Yards (-120) — 1-unit
Barkley was a flashy pickup for a team that limped down the stretch last season, but the RB position isn’t exactly the solution to the problem. While Saquon is obviously going to be the RB1 in Philly, that doesn’t mean he’ll be heavily featured as a workhorse.
Barkley has done some heavy lifting in the past, but still only topped this number in two of his six seasons in the NFL with the Giants. He surpassed 1,300 rushing yards on both occasions, while playing in a career-best 16 games each time. In his other four seasons, Barkley played in 14 or fewer games and failed to reach this number. Keep in mind that entering his seventh season, Barkley has now racked up nearly 1,500 touches in the NFL — and that’s following a career at Penn State in which he touched the ball nearly 800 times.
There’s a lot of miles on Barkley’s legs for a 27-year-old, along with some serious injuries. Injuries are always one path to cashing a season-long under, but even if we count Barkley in for a fully healthy season, there’s more resistance in his path to getting as many touches as he’s accustomed to.
The backfield is crowded, with Kenneth Gainwell stealing 84 carries for 364 yards out of the RB2 role last season. The Eagles also invested in the RB position in the draft, adding Will Shipley, who averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in each of his three seasons at Clemson. Not to mention, Jalen Hurts is going to eat up some rushing yards himself, going for 605 yards last season.
Too many things working against Barkley here to pass on his rushing under.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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