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I-MOVE multicentre case–control study 2010/11 to 2014/15: Is there within-season waning of influenza type/subtype vaccine effectiveness with increasing time since vaccination?
- Esther Kissling1 , Baltazar Nunes2 , Chris Robertson3,4,5 , Marta Valenciano1 , Annicka Reuss6 , Amparo Larrauri7,8 , Jean Marie Cohen9 , Beatrix Oroszi10 , Caterina Rizzo11 , Ausenda Machado2 , Daniela Pitigoi12,13 , Lisa Domegan14 , Iwona Paradowska-Stankiewicz15 , Udo Buchholz6 , Alin Gherasim7 , Isabelle Daviaud9 , Judit Krisztina Horváth10 , Antonino Bella11 , Emilia Lupulescu12 , Joan O´Donnell14 , Monika Korczyńska15 , Alain Moren1 , I-MOVE case–control study team16
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View Affiliations Hide AffiliationsAffiliations: 1 EpiConcept, Paris, France 2 Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal 3 Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom 4 University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom 5 International Prevention Research Institute, Lyon, France 6 Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany 7 National Centre for Epidemiology, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Madrid, Spain 8 Cyber, Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP) 9 GROG/Open Rome, Paris, France 10 Office of the Chief Medical Officer, Budapest, Hungary 11 Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy 12 Cantacuzino Institute, National Institute of Research – Development for Microbiology and Immunology, Bucharest, Romania 13 Universitatea de Medicina si Farmacie Carol Davila, Bucharest, Romania 14 Health Protection Surveillance Centre, Dublin, Ireland 15 National Institute of Public Health-National Institute of Hygiene, Warsaw, Poland 16 Authors included in the I-MOVE multicentre case–control team (in addition to those already listed) are listed at the end of the articleEsther Kisslinge.kissling epiconcept.fr
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Citation style for this article: Kissling Esther, Nunes Baltazar, Robertson Chris, Valenciano Marta, Reuss Annicka, Larrauri Amparo, Cohen Jean Marie, Oroszi Beatrix, Rizzo Caterina, Machado Ausenda, Pitigoi Daniela, Domegan Lisa, Paradowska-Stankiewicz Iwona, Buchholz Udo, Gherasim Alin, Daviaud Isabelle, Horváth Judit Krisztina, Bella Antonino, Lupulescu Emilia, O´Donnell Joan, Korczyńska Monika, Moren Alain, I-MOVE case–control study team. I-MOVE multicentre case–control study 2010/11 to 2014/15: Is there within-season waning of influenza type/subtype vaccine effectiveness with increasing time since vaccination? . Euro Surveill. 2016;21(16):pii=30201. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.16.30201 Received: 03 Dec 2015; Accepted: 10 Feb 2016
Abstract
Since the 2008/9 influenza season, the I-MOVE multicentre case–control study measures influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically-attended influenza-like-illness (ILI) laboratory confirmed as influenza. In 2011/12, European studies reported a decline in VE against influenza A(H3N2) within the season. Using combined I-MOVE data from 2010/11 to 2014/15 we studied the effects of time since vaccination on influenza type/subtype-specific VE. We modelled influenza type/subtype-specific VE by time since vaccination using a restricted cubic spline, controlling for potential confounders (age, sex, time of onset, chronic conditions). Over 10,000 ILI cases were included in each analysis of influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and B; with 4,759, 3,152 and 3,617 influenza positive cases respectively. VE against influenza A(H3N2) reached 50.6% (95% CI: 30.0–65.1) 38 days after vaccination, declined to 0% (95% CI: -18.1–15.2) from 111 days onwards. At day 54 VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 reached 55.3% (95% CI: 37.9–67.9) and remained between this value and 50.3% (95% CI: 34.8–62.1) until season end. VE against influenza B declined from 70.7% (95% CI: 51.3–82.4) 44 days after vaccination to 21.4% (95% CI: -57.4–60.8) at season end. To assess if vaccination campaign strategies need revising more evidence on VE by time since vaccination is urgently needed.
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