Crisil News

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Net leasing of Grade A commercial offices in India is projected to rise by 10-12% this fiscal, driven by strong demand from global capability centres, banking, financial services, insurance, and manufacturing sectors. This growth will improve cash accruals and credit profiles of commercial real estate entities. CRISIL Ratings highlights floor-wise denotification of SEZs aiding this trend.

Road engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) companies are expected to see a moderate revenue growth of 5-7 per cent next fiscal due to lower national highway awarding impacting their order books. Despite this, their credit profiles are expected to remain stable supported by steady operating profitability and strong balance sheets. The slowdown in growth is attributed to various factors including procedural issues and transition-related challenges as the government explores different project models. Prices of key raw materials have decreased, providing some relief.

Small finance banks' growth was expected to decelerate to 26% this fiscal year from 28% previously, as they explored alternative funding avenues, Crisil reported. Credit growth in new asset classes was seen at 40%, with diversification in loans such as mortgages and vehicle loans. Expansion in semi-urban and rural markets was a significant growth driver.

The Indian cement industry is planning a capital expenditure of around Rs 1.25 lakh crore for FY25 to FY27 to meet increasing demand, according to a report by CRISIL. This will add 130 million tonnes of cement grinding capacity. The sector’s credit profiles are expected to remain stable due to low capex intensity and strong balance sheets. Major players such as UltraTech and Adani Group are leading the expansion. The top five cement manufacturers held around 54 per cent of the market share in FY24, indicating significant consolidation in the industry.

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By 2025, the government aims to blend 20 percent ethanol in petrol, which will necessitate higher sugarcane utilization, thereby improving sugar inventory and millers' cash flows. While grain-based ethanol production is set to increase, the reduction in sugarcane output due to erratic rainfall is expected to impact supply, targeting 14 percent blending in 2024.

A Crisil analysis revealed that gold loans grew over 20% in June 2024 from the previous month. Banks and NBFCs maintained an LTV ratio of 60-65%. Disbursements for June were 12% higher than the previous quarter. The shift to digital channels for disbursements had only a minor impact on growth.

Gold-loan NBFCs experienced reasonable growth in disbursements due to robust credit demand and operational resilience. The May 2024 RBI advisory limited cash disbursements over Rs 20,000, prompting a shift to digital channels. Despite a minor increase in turnaround time, gold-loan NBFCs saw a 12% rise in June disbursements.

India's renewable energy storage capacity is projected to increase significantly to 6 GW by fiscal 2028, up from under 1 GW as of March 2024, according to Crisil Ratings. This surge is essential for managing the growing share of renewable energy in the power mix, which includes intermittent sources like solar and wind that require effective storage solutions.

Inventory pile-up has clogged an already stretched logistics network. Siddharth Jairaj, CEO, TVS SCS global forwarding solutions said, “Because of the anti-dumping duties, China has been shipping out huge numbers of electric vehicles since April and May to beat the duty deadlines. So global nodal ports like Singapore and Colombo and clogged.”

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India's dairy sector anticipated a 13-14% revenue boost for FY 2024-25, fueled by strong consumer demand and better raw milk supply due to favorable monsoons. The industry's growth was supported by increased sales of value-added products and rising consumption in the HORECA segment, compensating for modest growth in realization rates.

India's tour and travel operators are poised to see a 15-17% revenue increase this fiscal year, driven by rising domestic tourism and a growing trend towards international travel, according to Crisil's latest report. This follows a significant 40% revenue spike last fiscal, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Key factors include improved infrastructure, rising incomes, and government support for domestic tourism. The report highlights strong financial health and operating margins for travel operators, bolstered by a shift from 'revenge travel' to more frequent vacations and an increase in both domestic and outbound travel.

India's tour and travel operators expected a 15-17 per cent revenue increase this fiscal, driven by domestic and international travel. Improved infrastructure, higher incomes, and government focus on tourism contributed to growth. Steady operating margins and healthy credit profiles supported the sector, as reported by Crisil Ratings.

India's dairy industry is projected to experience a healthy revenue growth of 13-14% this fiscal year, driven by strong consumer demand and increased raw milk supply. The rise in value-added product consumption and ample milk availability from good monsoon prospects are expected to support this growth. Despite higher working capital requirements and increased debt levels due to capital expenditure, credit profiles are forecasted to remain stable with strong balance sheets.

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The ARPU -- one of the most keenly tracked metric influencing the financial health of an entity -- will increase 25 per cent in FY26 when compared to FY24, it said.

Telecom companies in India are projected to reach a decade-high average revenue per user (ARPU) of Rs 225 in the next fiscal year, driven by recent tariff increases and increased data consumption. Crisil Ratings anticipates a 25% ARPU growth by 2025-26. This growth, alongside reduced capital expenditure and debt reduction, is expected to enhance the credit profiles of telcos and improve their return on capital invested (RoCE) to around 11% by fiscal 2026.

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Crisil reports average crude oil prices are expected to rise to $83-$88 per barrel in fiscal 2025 from $83 in the previous year. This increase may strain India’s fiscal budget, given its reliance on crude imports. The report also projects India's real GDP growth at 6.8% for FY 2024-25 and anticipates a softened consumer price inflation at 4.5%. Despite challenges, a positive rural economic outlook is forecasted, buoyed by an expected above-normal monsoon.

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