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These losses have been attenuated by gains in Telangana, Odisha, and in Andhra Pradesh, through its partnership with TDP. Despite predictions to the contrary, TMC resisted BJP in West Bengal. In Bihar, JD(U) helped BJP retain the lead. BJP also holds firmly to Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Beyond the Hindi belt, BJP loses ground in the Northeast. Barring Assam and Tripura, BJP is soundly defeated, including in Manipur, which has been reeling from violence for more than a year. What emerges is that without the support of Nitish Kumar and N Chandrababu Naidu, who were roped in at the last moment, BJP would have lost the election.
These results shatter the myth of the invincibility of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP in the Hindi belt. BJP lost 26 seats in UP, including Faizabad, where Ayodhya is located. In Varanasi, Modi wins but with a considerably reduced margin (1.5 lakh against 4.8 lakh in 2024).
This election is the greatest setback of his career, and a signal that a campaign solely organised around his figure did not deliver its expected results. It also reveals that many voters were not as swayed by the PM’s communal rhetoric as many would have imagined after 10 years of communal politics in the heart of India’s heartland.
Congress will rejoice, flirting with the 100-bar once again. Its vote share increased from 19.5% to 24.6%. (In the seats they contested, BJP and Congress scored 45% and 34.8%.) Winning eight seats in UP after being reduced to a 2% vote share party two years ago shows that the alliance worked well in that state.
It did so too in Maharashtra, where the three INDIA partners won 28 seats, despite the BJP-led effort to torpedo the state’s regional parties. This is a strong sign of resurgence for a party many declared dead and a confirmation that opposition is only effective when it works in concert.
Overall, state dynamics seem to have prevailed over national ones, and while we wait for more survey data to explore them in detail, we can draw lessons from the three aspects that have characterised the 2024 election.
- This was the most openly communal and aggressive national campaign of Modi, who railed veiled invectives against the Muslim community, and less-so-veiled ones against the opposition, in his rallies, especially in the latter phases of campaigning. While it would be hasty to interpret this result as a rejection of the politics of hate, it shows that communalism is insufficient to carry an election.
- EC emerged as a significant loser in this election. In its admission, it failed to embrace its independence and was unwilling to impose the model code of conduct on party leaders it euphemistically referred to as ‘star campaigners’. It wasted time arguing against public data disclosure while news reports multiplied about local vote suppression. As a result, faith in the integrity of the election’s conduct has shrunk to levels not seen since the pre-TN Seshan era. Even as critiques of EVMs or the counting process are unwarranted, the erosion of credit of EC inevitably leads to an erosion of faith in the electoral process.
- A combination of these factors led to a lower turnout. It is possible that confidence in an easy win might have also led to the relative demobilisation of BJP voters. The communal inflection of the campaign did little to turn that tide. At any rate, the prime minister failed to grow support.
The key question is how Modi and his party will react to a configuration of de facto power-sharing. This is uncharted territory for the new BJP, who will be confronted with two sets of choices:
- Either convert to the art of political conciliation and compromise or press down the path of autocratisation to compensate for the loss of political ground and keep partners in check.
- Acknowledge and address more seriously the economic distress that has deepened in many parts of India over the past decade, despite the use of welfare as a compensation mechanism, or continue the pursuit of a cultural nationalist agenda that is ultimately disconnected from these questions.
Economic distress and discontent with jobless growth have emerged from the ground through the campaign. The future will tell us what choices will be made. These decisions will define India’s standing and trajectory. Ultimately, voters won this election by showing that they and their issues cannot be taken for granted.
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(Catch all the Business News, Breaking News, Budget 2024 Events and Latest News Updates on The Economic Times.)
Subscribe to The Economic Times Prime and read the ET ePaper online.