Republican primaries 2024
Who will be the next Republican nominee?
Latest polling averages, %
Voting intention, %
What happens if Donald Trump drops out?
The former president faces the prospect of four criminal trials on felony charges, which will overlap with the Republican primary season and the general-election campaign. None is likely to conclude before the primaries are over, and even if he is convicted, he is unlikely to be jailed before the election or barred from running, although some legal challenges are ongoing. But regular court dates will eat into his campaign schedule, and the trials may sour Republican voters on him (though his previous court appearances have only rallied his base). Were Mr Trump to withdraw, who would be most likely to win? The polls below show what the contest might look like without him, taking into account the second preferences of Mr Trump’s supporters.
Key dates in 2024
The nominee will be crowned with much fanfare on stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which begins on July 15th 2024. But the nominee will probably be confirmed before then. Voting begins with the Iowa caucuses in January.
The key candidates
![](/https/www.economist.com/interactive/2024-republican-primaries-tracker/images/Donald Trump.png)
Donald Trump
Former president
![](/https/www.economist.com/interactive/2024-republican-primaries-tracker/images/Nikki Haley.png)