The Awardist 2024 Oscar predictions: See who will win Best Picture, Actress, and more EW's 2024 Oscar predictions break down the battle between Emma Stone vs. Lily Gladstone for Best Actress and the rise of "Oppenheimer" toward Best Picture. By Joey Nolfi Joey Nolfi Entertainment Weekly's Oscars expert, 'RuPaul's Drag Race' beat reporter, host of 'Quick Drag' Twitter Spaces, and cohost of 'EW's BINGE' podcast. Almost all of the drag content on this site is my fault (you're welcome). EW's editorial guidelines Updated on March 4, 2024 02:16PM EST This year's shocking nominations announcement might've made Barbenheimer a thing of the past, but the future is bright for top awards contenders among EW's predictions for who will win at the Academy Awards as we head into the final week of the 2024 Oscars race that comes to an end at this Sunday's ceremony. Oppenheimer's domination of the precursor circuit (at the SAG Awards and the BAFTA Awards) to Anatomy of a Fall's slow but steady ascent from Cannes (where Jane Fonda hilariously tossed a Palme d'Or scroll at director Justine Triet) to potential Oscars gold all comes down to the ABC broadcast, which Jimmy Kimmel will return to host one hour earlier than usual at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT. Among a night of star-studded presenter appearances (including a potential Scarface reunion between Michelle Pfeiffer and Al Pacino) as well as high-profile musical performances of this year's nominated songs (yes, including Ryan Gosling doing "I'm Just Ken"), all eyes are on big contenders like Christopher Nolan, Lily Gladstone, Cillian Murphy, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Robert Downey Jr., and more to repeat with major wins their respective categories. Before the 96th Academy Awards ceremony, which is set to air Sunday, March 10 live from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, see EW's final 2024 Oscar predictions for who will win in all of the key categories below. EW's 2024 Oscar predictions: Paul Giamatti, Emma Stone, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Robert Downey Jr. Focus Features; Searchlight Pictures; Universal Pictures; AMPAS Best Picture American FictionAnatomy of a FallBarbieThe HoldoversKillers of the Flower MoonMaestroPREDICTED WINNER: OppenheimerPast LivesPoor ThingsThe Zone of Interest Surprisingly, the Best Picture battle of the three-hour-plus movies was over relatively quickly, after winners for significant precursors were announced. Christopher Nolan's historical drama cleaned up at the box office — earning over $950 million globally — before sweeping the early awards circuit, enough so that the movie has become the default choice for nearly all journalist groups and industry awards bodies (including a momentous BAFTA win for Best Film and the ensemble prize at the 2024 SAG Awards) alike. Nothing can stop Oppenheimer's reign — not even Martin Scorsese's similarly lengthy, critically lauded twilight-era entry in his decades-long career. Emily Blunt, Christopher Nolan, and Cillian Murphy on the set of 'Oppenheimer'. Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures Best Director Justine Triet, Anatomy of a FallMartin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower MoonPREDICTED WINNER: Christopher Nolan, OppenheimerYorgos Lanthimos, Poor ThingsJonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest The man behind the success of Oppenheimer is exactly what Hollywood needs right now: an A-list director popular with actors, fellow filmmakers, and audiences alike. He's a movie-making titan who can sell tickets to a picture on his name alone, regardless of star wattage in front of his camera. His vitality to the system stretches beyond Hollywood and into cinema's global reaches, and Academy voters across multiple branches spoke in favor of his Oppenheimer achievements by awarding the film with 13 overall Oscar nods in January. Building that kind of support among the branches all but assures that the Academy will hoist Nolan to the podium for the first time for stringing it all together in one movie. Cillian Murphy in 'Oppenheimer'. Best Actor Bradley Cooper, MaestroColman Domingo, RustinPaul Giamatti, The HoldoversPREDICTED WINNER: Cillian Murphy, OppenheimerJeffrey Wright, American Fiction At one point, there was a shift in the seemingly inevitable narrative that Cillian Murphy might go along for the ride as Oppenheimer decimated nearly every voter's attention at the start of the race, but critical favor burned slow and steady for The Holdovers' Paul Giamatti toward the end of 2023, as his turn as a curmudgeonly professor watching over a troubled student (Dominic Sessa) over a bleak holiday break spoke to the softer side of the heart, versus Murphy's fire and fury. In that sense, you'd think that Giamatti's is a far more accessible, tender performance that could speak to a wider range of voters, but the SAG statuette and the BAFTA went to Murphy, putting a major stop to Giamatti's late-breaking surge and cementing Murphy as this year's likely Best Actor winner. Lily Gladstone in 'Killers of the Flower Moon'. Apple TV+ Best Actress Annette Bening, NyadPREDICTED WINNER: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower MoonSandra Hüller, Anatomy of a FallCarey Mulligan, MaestroEmma Stone, Poor Things Keeping up with category tradition, Best Actress is perhaps the most interesting acting race of the year — thanks to the atypical contenders vying for the top prize. Lily Gladstone made history by becoming the first Native actress to score a nod in this category, and she seemed likeliest to win as the race kicked off last year. Poor Things' star and Academy favorite Emma Stone, however, rocked the narrative with her off-kilter work in Yorgos Lanthimos' peculiar emotional epic, charting her Frankenstein-esque character's evolution from dawdling infant to fully realized feminist. Purely on the surface, there's not as much of an outward arc in Gladstone's similarly sublime performance, and when voting on a winner, there was a time in the current race when it seemed like the whole of the Academy's base might gravitate toward a performance they can feel and see written all over Stone via makeup, costumes, and more transformational elements — but, Gladstone's triumph at the SAG Awards confirmed undying passion for her brilliant work in Scorsese's film, and she'll make history once again at the Academy's podium on Oscar night. Robert Downey Jr. in 'Oppenheimer'. Melinda Sue Gordon/Universal Pictures Best Supporting Actor Sterling K. Brown, American FictionRobert De Niro, Killers of the Flower MoonPREDICTED WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., OppenheimerRyan Gosling, BarbieMark Ruffalo, Poor Things As popular as Oppenheimer is, Robert Downey Jr.'s performance likely went along for the ride, here. The Academy loves a notable actor altering their appearance — especially when it's for a role based on a real-life historical figure. Here, the Marvel star sheds the glint of superhero stardom to play an aging Rear Admiral Lewis Strauss, with some audiences labeling him unrecognizable in the part. That was seemingly enough for industry voters to chart his path to his first Oscar victory — a long overdue accolade for one of the lesser performances in his stunning filmography. Da'Vine Joy Randolph in 'The Holdovers'. Everett Collection Best Supporting Actress Emily Blunt, OppenheimerDanielle Brooks, The Color PurpleAmerica Ferrera, BarbieJodie Foster, NyadPREDICTED WINNER: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers A vital piece of connective tissue that holds The Holdovers together, you could make the case that Da'Vine Joy Randolph is the heart of Alexander Payne's film. The industry has certainly had its finger on the pulse when it comes to Randolph hitting every major beat to date, scooping up accolades from the Golden Globes to the Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA Awards, and SAG Awards, making her victory as inevitable as it is deserved. Best Original Screenplay PREDICTED WINNER: Anatomy of a FallThe HoldoversMaestroMay DecemberPast Lives Best Adapted Screenplay PREDICTED WINNER: American FictionBarbieOppenheimerPoor ThingsThe Zone of Interest Best Animated Feature The Boy and the HeronElementalNimonaRobot DreamsPREDICTED WINNER: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Christian Friedel in 'The Zone of Interest'. a24 Best International Feature Io Capitano (Italy)Perfect Days (Japan)Society of the Snow (Spain)The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)PREDICTED WINNER: The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) Best Documentary Feature Bobi Wine: The People's PresidentThe Eternal MemoryFour DaughtersTo Kill a TigerPREDICTED WINNER: 20 Days in Mariupol Best Film Editing Anatomy of a FallThe HoldoversKillers of the Flower MoonPREDICTED WINNER: OppenheimerPoor Things Best Costume Design BarbieKillers of the Flower MoonNapoleonOppenheimerPREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things Best Makeup and Hairstyling GoldaPREDICTED WINNER: MaestroOppenheimerPoor ThingsSociety of the Snow Best Production Design BarbieKillers of the Flower MoonNapoleonOppenheimerPREDICTED WINNER: Poor Things Best Cinematography El CondeKillers of the Flower MoonMaestroPREDICTED WINNER: OppenheimerPoor Things Best Sound The CreatorMaestroMission: Impossible — Dead ReckoningPREDICTED WINNER: OppenheimerThe Zone of Interest Best Visual Effects The CreatorPREDICTED WINNER: Godzilla Minus OneGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part OneNapoleon Finneas and Billie Eilish. Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic Best Original Song "The Fire Inside" from Flamin' Hot, music and lyrics by Diane Warren"I'm Just Ken" from Barbie, music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt"It Never Went Away" from American Symphony, music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson"Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" from Killers of the Flower Moon, music and lyrics by Scott GeorgePREDICTED WINNER: "What Was I Made For?" from Barbie, music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell Best Original Score American FictionIndiana Jones and the Dial of DestinyKillers of the Flower MoonPREDICTED WINNER: OppenheimerPoor Things Best Animated Short PREDICTED WINNER: Letter to a PigNinety-Five SensesOur UniformPachydermeWar Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko Best Live Action Short The AfterInvincibleKnight of FortuneRed, White, and BluePREDICTED WINNER: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar Best Documentary Short PREDICTED WINNER: The ABCs of Book BanningThe Barber of Little RockIsland in BetweenThe Last Repair ShopNǎi Nai & Wài Pó Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best in TV. Related content: Awards season calendar 2024: See key show dates for Oscars, Emmys, Golden Globes See where 20 Academy Award winners keep their Oscars Who will finally win the Barbenheimer showdown at the Oscars? 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