Oscar predictions: After SAG and Golden Globes

With last week’s Screen Actors Guild Award nominations we finally heard from a pre-Oscar voting body that has significant overlap with the Academy. So how did the SAG and Golden Globe announcements change the main races overall? Here are my updated rankings.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Artist (last week: 1)

2. War Horse (last week: 3)

3. The Descendants (last week: 2)

4. The Help (last week: 5)

5. Hugo (last week: 4)

6. Midnight in Paris (last week: 7)

7. The Tree of Life (last week: 8 )

8. Moneyball (last week: 9)

9. Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (last week: 6)

10. Bridesmaids (last week: — )

11. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (last week: 11)

12. The Ides of March (last week: 14)

13. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (last week: 12)

14. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 13)

15. Drive (last week: 10)

Falling off: J. Edgar

Clearly Bridesmaids got the biggest boost of the week with its SAG nod for Best Cast. Interestingly, it has broken into the top 10 predicted films of the Gold Derby experts’ panel (of which I am a member). Right now the top 6 films on my list feel like locks, with the next three decent shots as well.

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist (last week: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo (last week: 2)

3. Steven Spielberg, War Horse (last week: 4)

4. Alexander Payne, The Descendants (last week: 3)

5. Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life (last week: 6)

6. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris (last week: 7)

7. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (last week: 5)

8. Tate Taylor, The Help (last week: 9)

9. Bennett Miller, Moneyball (last week: 10)

10. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 8 )

11. George Clooney, The Ides of March (last week: 12)

12. Nicolas Winding Refn, Drive (last week: 11)

This still seems like a race between seven top contenders. Which two will be left out?

BEST ACTOR

1. George Clooney, The Descendants (last week: 1)

2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball (last week: 2)

3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist (last week: 3)

4. Michael Fassbender, Shame (last week: 4)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar (last week: 5)

6. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter (last week: 8 )

7. Demián Bichir, A Better Life (last week: 11)

8. Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (last week: 6)

9. Ryan Gosling, Drive (last week: 7)

10. Woody Harrelson, Rampart (last week: 9)

11. Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March (last week: 10)

12. Matt Damon, We Bought A Zoo (last week: 12)

It warmed my heart to see the wonderful Demián Bichir on the SAG list for A Better Life. The top five men on my list seem fairly impenetrable right now, however. Given the fabulous reviews for Oldman’s performance in Tinker Tailor, I’m a bit baffled by his exclusion from the entire BFCA/SAG/Globe trifecta.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis, The Help (last week: 1)

2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (last week: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn (last week: 3)

4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs (last week: 4)

5. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin (last week: 5)

6. Charlize Theron, Young Adult (last week: 6)

7. Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (last week: 8 )

8. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene (last week: 7)

9. Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids (last week: — )

10. Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method (last week: 9)

11. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia (last week: 10)

12. Felicity Jones, Like Crazy (last week: 11)

Falling off: Ellen Barkin, Another Happy Day

Not much movement in this race, as my previous top five all scored SAG nods. But Bridesmaids‘ strong showing overall means Wiig is a likelier dark horse than several of her indie counterparts.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners (last week: 1)

2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn (last week: 3)

3. Albert Brooks, Drive (last week: 2)

4. Nick Nolte, Warrior (last week: 5)

5. Jonah Hill, Moneyball (last week: 6)

6. Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close (last week: 4)

7. Armie Hammer, J. Edgar (last week: 12)

8. Ben Kingsley, Hugo (last week: 9)

9. Patton Oswalt, Young Adult (last week: 7)

10. Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes (last week: 8 )

11. George Clooney, The Ides of March (last week: 10)

12. Robert Forster, The Descendants (last week: 11)

A SAG nod for rising star Hammer (in place of critical favorite Brooks) continued to shake up this most unpredictable race. The big question in my mind is whether Von Sydow will have a shot once more people see Extremely Loud. He’s undeniably the film’s standout cast member but I wanted more screen time from him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Octavia Spencer, The Help (last week: 1)

2. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids (last week: 4)

3. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist (last week: 3)

4. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs (last week: 6)

5. Jessica Chastain, The Help (last week: 7)

6. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants (last week: 2)

7. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus (last week: 5)

8. Carey Mulligan, Shame (last week: 8 )

9. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (last week: 9)

10. Judy Greer, The Descendants (last week: 10)

11. Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life (last week: 11)

12. Kate Winslet, Carnage (last week: 12)

One of the biggest SAG surprises for me was the lack of a nomination for Descendants breakout Woodley. One of the closely ranked top six women won’t make the cut with the Academy, and with nods from the BFCA, SAG, and Globes, Spencer, Chastain, and Bejo seem like sure things. Meanwhile, I was perplexed by McCarthy’s omission from the Golden Globe roster…until I learned that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association didn’t have a press conference with her.

Dave on Twitter: @davekarger

Read more:

Award Season Scorecard: Winners so far