The Awardist Oscars EW's final Oscar predictions in all 23 categories, from Viola Davis to Nomadland See our expert Oscar predictions after the longest awards season ever. By Joey Nolfi Joey Nolfi Entertainment Weekly's Oscars expert, 'RuPaul's Drag Race' beat reporter, host of 'Quick Drag' Twitter Spaces, and cohost of 'EW's BINGE' podcast. Almost all of the drag content on this site is my fault (you're welcome). EW's editorial guidelines and David Canfield David Canfield David Canfield is a former staff editor at Entertainment Weekly. He left EW in 2022. EW's editorial guidelines Published on April 23, 2021 12:33PM EDT The winding, emotional, ever chaotic awards race of 2021 will go down as one of the most memorable stretches in Oscars history. And it all leads up to one moment: Sunday night, when the unprecedented, multi-continent telecast will broadcast a celebration of best bits of a wounded industry it was able to salvage from the wreckage of a decimating year that left theaters closed, actors out of work, and studios clamoring for cash. But the Oscars have always functioned across demographics as a great unifier, whether they resonate with you as a bastion for quality cinema or simply a fun, throwaway, glitzy distraction to get you through another bout with the Sunday Scaries — the Academy Awards are a constant, and the show will go on with honors for a healthy number of fantastic films that managed to entertain us all while the world healed. So, who will win after the longest awards season in recent memory? EW's awards experts David Canfield and Joey Nolfi sifted through all 23 categories to make the most informed Oscar predictions ahead of the big night. Read on to see who will win (forewarning: Best Actress is, well, a nightmare) at the Oscars. See EW's Oscar predictions for the 93rd Academy Awards in all categories, from Viola Davis to 'Nomadland.'. David Lee/Netflix (2); Warner Bros. Pictures; A24 Best Picture What do you get when you get a contender who's won DGA, BAFTA, PGA, and the Golden Globe? Why, last year's surprise Oscar loser, 1917! Which is to say that, yes, Nomadland's clean precursor sweep doesn't necessarily guarantee a win in this category. But it's been a long time since a film showed up to Oscar night so far out front in this race. It is far less common for small indies to dominate as Nomadland has (just ask all-around precursor loser Moonlight, or Globe loser The Hurt Locker), but the Chloé Zhao drama has defied the odds: crushing the industry circuit, nabbing the most spots on critics' top 10 lists, winning over finicky groups like the HFPA or the Film Independent Spirit Awards. It is broadly beloved, and no challenger has emerged. Is there passion for Promising Young Woman? Sure. Is The Trial of the Chicago 7 the obvious populist foil? Yes. Have either of them established themselves as real threats? No. This is Nomadland's to lose. — David Canfield PROJECTED WINNER: NomadlandThe FatherJudas and the Black MessiahMankMinariPromising Yong WomanSound of MetalThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Joshua James Richards/Searchlight Pictures Best Director Let's be clear: Yes, Chloé Zhao's impending, assured, soon-to-be-historic Oscars victory for Best Director will be iconic, monumental, and key for Asian representation at a time when a wounded community needs hope; but, contrary to what "haters" (for lack of a better word) might say, this isn't a token victory. You don't maintain an iron grip on the season — from winning juried festival awards like the Golden Lion at Venice, the public-voted TIFF People's Choice Award, and industry accolades from industry insiders at the DGA, PGA, and more. Zhao has directed a film with a story that's universally intriguing, both in terms of plot (seeing Frances McDormand traverse the country in a van to hash out her emotional anxieties is stimulating in itself) and for the spectacle of its oddity. But, most importantly, she's made a movie that's unpretentious to the core, deeply moving and poignant in ways that wash over all who view it, regardless of background or experience. It's an emotional equalizer, a technical marvel, and a narrative masterpiece that travels the deepest roads to the heart and doesn't let up on the gas. You can't see another film — for miles — in its rearview mirror, and the only surefire contender to credit for its brilliance is the woman in the driver's seat. — Joey Nolfi PROJECTED WINNER: Chloé Zhao — NomadlandThomas Vinterberg — Another RoundDavid Fincher — MankLee Isaac Chung — MinariEmerald Fennell — Promising Yong Woman David Lee/Netflix Best Actress Frances McDormand guided us down uncertain roads (in her trusty van), while Carey Mulligan and Vanessa Kirby forced our gaze toward grim truths — all while Andra Day soundtracked the hunt with her flawless voice; Each contender in this year's chaotic Best Actress race took hold of the conversation in one way or another, with each of the aforementioned contenders taking a different, major precursor accolade in the run-up to the Oscars. But it's Viola Davis whose searing turn in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom rattled the industry's soul, as her work in the August Wilson adaptation snagged the SAG Award — arguably the most influential precursor for any actor to win ahead of the Oscars — in a head-to-head matchup against most of fellow Best Actress nominees. And therein lies the logic in predicting Davis in a seemingly unpredictable contest: McDormand won BAFTA without Mulligan, Day, or Davis competing in her bracket, while Mulligan (Critics Choice) and Day's (Golden Globes) sole high profile precursor victories came from critics groups with no reach into Academy membership. You have to go where the chorus leads, and, this year, the actors have sung Davis' praises in all the right ways. — J.N. PROJECTED WINNER: Viola Davis — Ma Rainey's Black BottomAndra Day — The United States vs. Billie HolidayVanessa Kirby — Pieces of a WomanFrances McDormand — NomadlandCarey Mulligan — Promising Yong Woman David Lee/NETFLIX Best Actor There is some intriguing, late-breaking movement in this category; posthumous frontrunner Chadwick Boseman was beaten out at BAFTA by hometown favorite Anthony Hopkins (The Father), and at the Indie Spirits by Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal). Those two, without Boseman's presence, would certainly be duking it out for the win, and as they've proven their bona fides at this late stage, cannot fully be ruled out of upsetting here. But Boseman's triumphant final film performance in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom remains too powerful and appropriate to ignore here. Expect the Academy to finish off this heartbreaking awards journey with catharsis, not surprise. — D.C. PROJECTED WINNER: Chadwick Boseman — Ma Rainey's Black BottomAnthony Hopkins — The FatherGary Oldman — MankSteven Yeun — MinariRiz Ahmed — Sound of Metal Josh Ethan Johnson/A24 Best Supporting Actress There's history to be made at the Oscars, and Yuh-Jung Youn planted a charismatic seed in voters' hearts from the moment she first appeared onscreen in Lee Isaac Chung's deeply moving immigrant drama Minari. As the heart and soul of a complicated story, Youn — the first Korean woman to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress — is the rock at the center of familial turmoil, a deep-rooted anchor whose presence feels both electric and calming at the same time, reassuring without a lick of falsity or affected confidence as her grandmother character corrals her daughter (Yeri Han), son-in-law (Steven Yeun), and grandchildren (Alan Kim, Noel Kate Cho). And the same can be said for Youn's presence on the awards trail; at the head of final Oscar voting, she captivated with heartfelt, candid, headline-making acceptance speeches at both the SAG Awards and the BAFTAs — two major stages upon which you definitely want to impress as AMPAS readies its ballots. That kind of passion for a performance is hard to beat, especially when you're on international airwaves winning people over with the same heart and wit they fell for in your character as well. Maria Bakalova and Glenn Close pose small (but mighty, nonetheless) threats to Youn's late-breaking dominance, but in a race where all rules have been broken so far, the heart rules over the head every time. And it will for Academy voters, too. — J.N. PROJECTED WINNER: Yuh-Jung Youn — MinariMaria Bakalova — Borat Subsequent MoviefilmOlivia Colman — The FatherGlenn Close — Hillbilly ElegyAmanda Seyfried — Mank Glen Wilson/Warner Bros. Best Supporting Actor EW put Daniel Kaluuya in our No. 1 spot last fall after we first screened Judas and the Black Messiah — purely based on the electricity of his performance in the Shaka King drama, he seemed like a shoo-in. And while there were the occasional murmurs around double-threats like The Trial of the Chicago 7's Sacha Baron Cohen (also nominated as a Borat screenwriter) and One Night in Miami's Leslie Odom Jr. (also nommed as a songwriter on the film), this one has always felt pretty undeniable. It's nice, and a little rare, when a category comes down to a singular, ferocious performance, and nothing else. Especially after Judas' overperformance in the nominations, Kaluuya looks like a lock. His being nominated against his costar, LaKeith Stanfield, only bolsters his positioning (think of Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, cruising to a win in this category despite the presence of scene partner Woody Harrelson). If there is a shock to be had, Baron Cohen and Odom feel like old news; the Cinderella story that is Sound of Metal has its pull, that's for sure, and Paul Raci is in many ways its truest heart. A longshot, but one worth mentioning. — D.C. PROJECTED WINNER: Daniel Kaluuya — Judas and the Black MessiahLaKeith Stanfield — Judas and the Black MessiahLeslie Odom, Jr. — One Night in MiamiPaul Raci — Sound of MetalSacha Baron Cohen — The Trial of the Chicago 7 Erik Carter for EW Best Adapted Screenplay PROJECTED WINNER: NomadlandBorat Subsequent MoviefilmThe FatherOne Night in Miami...The White Tiger Merie Weismiller Wallace / Focus Features Best Original Screenplay PROJECTED WINNER: Promising Young WomanJudas and the Black MessiahMinariSound of MetalThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Animated Feature PROJECTED WINNER: SoulOnwardOver the MoonA Shaun the Sheep Movie: FarmageddonWolfwalkers Best International Feature PROJECTED WINNER: Another RoundBetter DaysCollectiveThe Man Who Sold His SkinQuo Vadis, Aida? Best Documentary Feature PROJECTED WINNER: My Octopus TeacherCollectiveCrip CampThe Mole AgentTime Best Documentary Short PROJECTED WINNER: A Love Song for LatashaColetteA Concerto Is a ConversationDo Not SplitHunger Ward Best Live Action Short PROJECTED WINNER: The Letter RoomFeeling ThroughThe PresentTwo Distant StrangersWhite Eye Best Animated Short PROJECTED WINNER: OperaBurrowGenius LociIf Anything Happens I Love YouYes-People Best Original Song PROJECTED WINNER: "Husavik" — EuroVision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga"Fight For You" — Judas and the Black Messiah"Hear My Voice" — The Trial of the Chicago 7"Is sì (Seen)" — The Life Ahead"Speak Now" — One Night in Miami Best Original Score PROJECTED WINNER: SoulDa 5 BloodsMankMinariNews of the World Best Sound PROJECTED WINNER: Sound of MetalGreyhoundMankNews of the WorldSoul Best Production Design PROJECTED WINNER: MankThe FatherMa Rainey's Black BottomNews of the WorldTenet Best Cinematography PROJECTED WINNER: NomadlandJudas and the Black MessiahMankNews of the WorldThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Makeup and Hairstyling PROJECTED WINNER: Ma Rainey's Black BottomEmmaHillbilly ElegyMankPinocchio Best Costume Design PROJECTED WINNER: Ma Rainey's Black BottomEmmaMankMulanPinocchio Best Film Editing PROJECTED WINNER: Sound of MetalThe FatherNomadlandPromising Young WomanThe Trial of the Chicago 7 Best Visual Effects PROJECTED WINNER: TenetLove and MonstersThe Midnight SkyMulanThe One and Only Ivan Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best films. 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