ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper has a rather shocking prediction for the fifth pick in his mock draft: According to Kiper, the Kansas City Chiefs will select Virginia guard Branden Albert.
Guards just aren’t chosen with Top 5 picks in the N.F.L. draft. Albert can’t go fifth, can he?
Maybe that projection is wrong: Early April mock drafts aren’t particularly reliable predictors of actual draft results. But if Albert is chosen as highly as Kiper expects, it won’t be because he’s the best guard prospect in this year’s draft. It will be because N.F.L. coaches think he can move to tackle.
When guards are chosen early in the first round of the draft, it’s usually because the teams drafting them envision moving them to tackle, the more important offensive line position. The last time a guard was a high first-round pick was in 2001, when the Cardinals chose Leonard Davis second overall. Davis has been a fine guard for most of his N.F.L. career, but he played left tackle in his last two years at Texas, and the Cardinals drafted him second overall because they hoped he could move there some day. In the six N.F.L. drafts since the Cardinals picked Davis, only four guards have been chosen in the first round, and none of them were chosen higher than 23rd.
Albert has what it takes to play tackle in the NFL. He possesses the agility to block speedy N.F.L. defensive ends, he has impressed in his individual workout, and perhaps most importantly, he has the frame of an offensive tackle. The N.F.L.’s scouting combine and the pro day workouts are meat markets where coaches scrutinize the players’ physiques, and the 6-foot-6, 309-pound Albert just looks like a tackle. For all the complex scouting N.F.L. teams do, it really is that simple: Albert looks the part of a tackle out of central casting, and that means a lot to N.F.L. coaches.
It will also mean a lot to Albert’s bottom line. If he’s slated to play guard in the N.F.L., Albert will likely go somewhere around the 20th pick, the slot where Aaron Ross of the Giants got a five-year, $13 million contract last year. If Kiper is right and Albert is chosen fifth, he could expect a contract more like the six-year, $62 million deal Levi Brown of the Cardinals got last year. Albert had a fine college career as a guard, but on draft day he’ll be very happy if he finds an N.F.L. team that wants him to play tackle.
Michael David Smith also writes for FanHouse, Pro Football Talk, College Football Talk, Football Outsiders and The New York Sun.
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