The NBA has reportedly agreed to terms for its next media rights deal — and it looks like Warner Bros. Discovery's (WBD) TNT Network could lose out.
If true, it will be a gut punch for the legacy media giant, which has aired NBA games through its TNT network since 1989. It reportedly shells out $1.2 billion annually for the rights, which expire at the end of next season. But Comcast's NBCUniversal is set to take over its current rights package at a much higher price.
"The big outstanding question that we hope to find some clarity on in the coming days is whether Warner Bros. Discovery will look to exercise its matching rights, which were built into its prior NBA contract, after the league formally approves and presents the offers in writing to [TNT]," MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote in a new note on Wednesday.
Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav acknowledged the matching rights to reporters last week at the annual Sun Valley conference, noting that negotiations are still in progress and "we'll see how it plays out."
But some Wall Street watchers say it is unlikely WBD will match at this point.
"I don't believe Warner Bros. really wants to spend $1.8-plus billion on a rights package for a much smaller package and with less playoff games than they have now," LightShed media analyst Rich Greenfield told Yahoo Finance.
"There is a pretty vicious debate among investors: Is losing the NBA catastrophic for WBD because they're at risk of getting dropped by distributors, whether it's a YouTube TV or a Comcast? Will this sort of be the end of carriage for this company, or at least a significant haircut to carriage? Or is saving a billion-plus dollars a year [actually] going to be a positive financial transaction?"
Greenfield said the answer largely depends on what other sports rights WBD is able to acquire.
"You've seen them do some small deals, like college football playoffs, nothing terribly meaningful so far," he said. "But there are rights like UFC coming available. There are other things coming available over the next few years. It'll be interesting to see how aggressive they are if they do, in fact, as we believe, stand down from the NBA."
Comcast's NBCUniversal (CMCSA) is reportedly taking over WBD's portion of the rights after submitting a reported bid worth $2.5 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The network will show about 100 games per season, with half airing exclusively on its streaming service Peacock.
Disney (DIS), the NBA's other major broadcast partner, is expected to retain its share of the league's media rights after reportedly agreeing to increase its payment of $1.5 billion a year to $2.6 billion, per the Journal. The company will carry fewer games than in its current package, although it will be able to stream games on its upcoming ESPN streaming platform, set to launch in fall 2025.
Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN) struck a deal with the NBA for a streaming rights package that will be offered through its Prime Video service for a reported $1.8 billion. The Journal said the package includes both regular season and playoff games, plus the play-in tournament and a share of conference finals, which would rotate among the media partners.
In total, the NBA has reportedly secured a media rights package worth around $76 billion over 11 years — a bullish sign when it comes to the importance of sports to both streamers and traditional broadcast and cable providers.
"Ultimately, this NBA renewal is just another example of the growing importance — and thus ever inflating costs — of sports rights," MoffettNathanson's Fishman said. "Further, with the creation of a digital-only package at Amazon, more sports than ever before will be available outside of the Pay TV bundle as the distribution ecosystem continues to evolve."
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at [email protected].
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