Week 16 is a multicultural NFL blowout, with 12 games scheduled for the 24th — the first night of Hanukkah1 — two games scheduled for Christmas Day, and Monday Night Football scheduled for the first night of Kwanzaa. But which of these festive games actually matter?
For the last month, we’ve been using the model behind our 2016 NFL predictions to calculate how much each team’s playoff chances “swing” depending on the outcome of each game. For example, we currently give Washington a 25 percent chance of making the playoffs. If they beat Chicago this week, we project those chances will increase to 40 percent (independent of other games). If they lose, their chances drop to 1 percent.2 That’s a 39 percentage point swing! By doing this same math for every matchup and factoring in how each team’s resulting record will affect others’ playoff odds, we can find out which games are the most impactful.
But before we get to this week’s key matchups, let’s take a moment to acknowledge the Carolina Panthers’ preposterous playoff path. At 6-8, the defending NFC champions are still technically alive. Using the game-selection feature in our NFL predictions, we figured out what they need to have happen to snag a wild-card slot:
That’s right, Carolina’s path to the playoffs requires a tie. It could happen in either Week 16 or 17, but a final record of 7-7-2 for Washington is the same as 8-8 for standings purposes, and a five-way tie between Carolina, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and Washington would break to the Panthers due to their 7-5 NFC record.3 A four-way tie where Washington finishes 7-8-1 would eliminate Carolina, as would a six-way tie where the Saints also go 8-8 or a five-way tie that included the New Orleans but not Washington.
So there’s a chance! The Colts, Vikings, Bills and Saints are also near elimination but still have less-outlandish paths to the playoffs — go explore them for yourself on our NFL predictions page. The five biggest games of Week 16 are below.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF MIA WINS | IF BUF WINS | SWING | |
| Miami | 55% | 92% | 29% | 64 | |
| Baltimore | 28 | 14 | 38 | 24 | |
| Denver | 17 | 7 | 24 | 17 | |
| Pittsburgh | 93 | 88 | 96 | 8 | |
| Houston | 58 | 55 | 60 | 5 | |
| Tennessee | 45 | 42 | 47 | 4 | |
| Buffalo | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
What’s up with Miami? The Dolphins have an average offense and an average defense, and they’ve outscored their opponents this year by a single point (315 to 314). And yet, at 9-5, they’re just a few game outcomes away from the playoffs. If they win in Buffalo, their chances rise to 92 percent; add a Denver loss in Kansas City and they clinch a wild-card spot. If the Dolphins lose this game — and they’re currently 4-point underdogs — their playoff probabilities plummet to 29 percent. No team has a larger potential swing this week.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF TB WINS | IF NO WINS | SWING | |
| Tampa Bay | 42% | 74% | 15% | 60 | |
| Detroit | 77 | 65 | 87 | 22 | |
| Washington | 25 | 16 | 32 | 15 | |
| Green Bay | 57 | 50 | 63 | 13 | |
| Minnesota | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | |
| Atlanta | 96 | 94 | 97 | 3 | |
The NFC playoff picture basically splits into four groups. The Cowboys and Seahawks have clinched. The Giants and Falcons have all but clinched. The Vikings, Saints and Panthers, while not mathematically eliminated, are done. That leaves four pretty good teams — Detroit, Green Bay, Washington and Tampa Bay — competing for two playoff spots. The playoff chances of all four will swing dramatically based on the results of this game.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF BAL WINS | IF PIT WINS | SWING | |
| Baltimore | 28% | 67% | 14% | 53 | |
| Pittsburgh | 93 | 74 | 100 | 26 | |
| Denver | 17 | 8 | 21 | 13 | |
| Tennessee | 45 | 42 | 46 | 5 | |
| Houston | 58 | 56 | 59 | 3 | |
| Kansas City | >99_ | 97 | 100 | 3 | |
| Buffalo | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
Pittsburgh has won five straight, which makes this AFC North matchup not quite the “win or go home” Christmas blockbuster it was shaping up to be a few weeks ago. A loss is very survivable for the Steelers, who face the currently winless Browns at home in Week 17 and would likely improve to 10-6. The Ravens are much more in need of a win, and this will become an elimination game for them if Miami beats Buffalo on Saturday.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF TEN WINS | IF JAX WINS | SWING | |
| Tennessee | 45% | 59% | 19% | 40 | |
| Houston | 58 | 48 | 77 | 29 | |
| Indianapolis | 3 | 1 | 7 | 6 | |
| Denver | 17 | 16 | 19 | 2 | |
Playoff longshots going into Week 14, the Titans have pulled off huge back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. But the Texans have kept pace — eking out narrow victories against the mediocre Colts and Jaguars — and still would win the AFC South if the season ended today. This isn’t a must-win game for Tennessee, but if they lose to the Jaguars and the Texans beat the Bengals, a division title will be out of reach, and their playoff chances would drop to just 3 percent.
| CHANCE OF MAKING PLAYOFFS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFECTED TEAM | CURRENT | IF DEN WINS | IF KC WINS | SWING | |
| Denver | 17% | 42% | 7% | 35 | |
| Miami | 55 | 41 | 60 | 19 | |
| Baltimore | 28 | 20 | 31 | 11 | |
| Pittsburgh | 93 | 96 | 92 | 4 | |
| Kansas City | >99_ | 98 | 100 | 2 | |
| Tennessee | 45 | 43 | 46 | 2 | |
| Houston | 58 | 57 | 59 | 2 | |
The Broncos are close to blowing it. The defending Super Bowl champions started the season 4-0 but have fallen victim to an underperforming offense and a hard schedule, losing every tough matchup (Raiders, Chiefs, Titans and Patriots) they’ve had since Week 9. They get a rematch with the Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day. If either the Dolphins or Ravens win, this becomes an elimination game for Denver.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.