583
FXUS64 KFWD 022341
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
641 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence from an
upper ridge through midweek. Therefore, expect hot and mostly
sunny conditions to prevail through Wednesday and into the 4th of
July holiday. Warm overnight temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s will be approaching record high minimum temperatures again
tonight at several locations, including DFW. Temperatures will
peak in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most of the
region Wednesday afternoon with afternoon heat indices in the
103-108 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been extended through
Wednesday evening for the majority of our forecast area, minus our
southwestern zones where daytime mixing will drop dewpoints into
the low 60s.

Subsident air associated with the upper ridge will keep the area
rain-free through Wednesday. However, a few showers and
thunderstorms on the sea breeze may approach our Brazos Valley
counties late Wednesday afternoon before dissipating (less than
15% chance).

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/
/Independence Day Through Next Week/

The mid-level ridge responsible for our extended period of above
normal temperatures will steadily deamplify the remainder of the
week, eventually repositioning itself over the Southeast U.S. The
final day of our current bout of heat will be Independence Day
when a Central Plains storm system will allow a rare mid-summer
cold front to invade the Southern Plains. This will also mark a
pattern shift that will maintain milder temperatures and above
normal precipitation chances through the second week of July.

The 4th of July will be indistinguishable from other recent hot
days with many locations reaching the century mark. Unseasonably
rich moisture will push heat index values into the 105 to 110
range across much of the region. Despite a steady (albeit light)
south wind, the risk of heat-related illness will be high,
particularly for those engaging in outdoor activities who are not
accustomed to spending much time exposed to this level of heat
and humidity. Take all necessary precautions to avoid heat stress,
including wearing light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, drinking
plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in
air-conditioned areas. Rain and storms are not expected to impact
holiday festivities with afternoon/evening activity confined to
two areas: (1) along the front from West Texas into Oklahoma and
(2) sea breeze convection to our southeast. However, there is a
low chance that the frontal activity could enter our northwest
before midnight Thursday night.

Without the ridge to prevent its forward progress, the cold front
will move deep into North Texas on Friday. Showers and storms will
accompany its passage, but reduced instability and seasonally weak
shear should preclude any severe weather. Even outside of rain-
cooled areas, increased cloud cover in the postfrontal air will
result in the mildest daytime temperatures since before the summer
solstice. The exception will be much of Central and East Texas,
which may remain in the sunny pre-frontal sector during the
afternoon hours. This could increase the instability enough to
allow a few strong storms if the boundary mechanics are adequate.

The front will likely stall or retreat on Saturday. Even if the
post-frontal air never reaches Central Texas, rain chances and
increased cloud cover should finally allow the entire region to
enjoy below normal daytime temperatures. Sunshine and southerly
winds will return early next week with a corresponding rise in
temperature, but the ridge`s absence will cap afternoon highs in
the mid 90s. The lack of inhibition will also maintain daily rain
chances.

Throughout next week, the Lone Star State will remain beneath a
col, separating the Southeast ridge from a similar bubble over the
Desert Southwest. There is an outside chance that this could
encourage Beryl to approach. The GFS is the most bullish with this
scenario, but a plurality of extended solutions favors
persistence. We will continue to assess this with subsequent
forecasts, but this afternoon`s package will include a new Day 7
(Tuesday next week) that will maintain seasonal temperatures and
above normal precipitation chances.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south winds generally between 6-12 kts with
occasional gusts up to 20 kts will prevail through the TAF period
for all terminals.

Langfeld

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 101  82 100  80 /   0   0   0   0  20
Waco                79  98  78  99  78 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               79  99  79  97  76 /   0   5   0   0  30
Denton              81 101  80 101  77 /   0   0   0   0  20
McKinney            81 100  80  99  78 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dallas              82 101  82 101  80 /   0   0   0   0  20
Terrell             80  99  79  98  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           81  98  80  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              78  98  78  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       78 100  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>093-100>104-
115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-
095-105>107-121>123-135-148.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ094-095-105>107-
121>123-135-148.

&&

$$