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670
FXUS61 KBGM 160822
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
422 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions will persist today, with another round
of strong to severe thunderstorms expected to move across the
region. A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday,
bringing cooler temperatures but lingering shower and
thunderstorm chances. Fair weather and cooler temperatures are
expected Thursday and into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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415 AM Update...

Low clouds and a few sprinkles are hanging back across northern
and eastern portions of the CWA this morning, while skies have
cleared out over the balance of the area. In the clear area,
valley fog has developed, mainly over NEPA, with patchier fog
across the Southern Tier of NY. Meanwhile, some thin high clouds
are spreading into north-central NY, blowoff from an MCS over
southern Ontario.

Fog will burn off, low clouds will lift out, and the atmosphere
will quickly destabilize later this morning. Temperatures still
look to push into upper-80s to lower-90s across the area, with
dewpoints climbing into the upper-60s to lower-70s, yielding
Heat Index values in the mid-90s to near 100 by early this
afternoon. Heat Advisories remain in place with no changes.

A strong upper level trough over northwestern Ontario will move
slowly east today, with mid and upper level flow increasing
across the area ahead of a shortwave trough currently over
Michigan. By late morning and early afternoon, 0-6km shear
values look to increase to 35 to 40 knots across the area, as
strong instability develops, with SBCAPE values running
2000-2500 J/Kg. This will set the stage for another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms across the area, triggered by the
sharp shortwave trough as it moves into WNY early this
afternoon. The timing of the shortwave trough should give us an
earlier start time versus yesterday`s round of severe weather.
In addition to damaging wind gusts, steepening lapse rates could
lead to more hail reports today, and 0-1km shear values of 20-25
knots in Central NY increases the risk of an isolated tornado
today, especially later in the afternoon as a narrow low level
jet noses into the area ahead of a convectively-induced surface
low rolling across Lake Ontario.

While the timing today generally favors an earlier start, the
evolution of thunderstorm activity today may be affected by the
passage of a leftover MCV associated with the ongoing MCS in
Ontario. Not surprisingly, CAMS are showing slightly different
scenarios playing out. The strongest convection may end up
developing just east and SE of the MCV as it rolls across the
area this afternoon.

Precip looks to mostly diminish overnight, with patchy fog
likely developing across the area, favoring places that receive
rainfall. The large trough over NW Ontario will slowly lumber
north of Lake Huron Wednesday, with additional weaker shortwave
troughs drifting across the area Wednesday afternoon. The
strongest shortwave, and an associated cold front, will move
into the area late Wednesday morning, bringing scattered showers
and eventually thunderstorms by the afternoon. However, the
timing of the frontal passage mainly favors eastern and
southeastern areas of the CWA (Catskills, NEPA) for thunderstorm
potential. Shear looks to be favorable for severe thunderstorms
again, as 500mb flow pokes above 50 knots over NEPA.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM Update...

Showers and storms are expected to linger Wednesday night and into
Thursday morning as a frontal system continues to drop south across
the region. Instability will decrease in the evening, but model
guidance and soundings do show up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40 to 45
kts of shear through the late evening hours. Because of this,
isolated strong thunderstorms will still be possible across southern
portions of NEPA and the Catskills. Overnight, this main band of
showers and storms will move out of the region though some lingering
showers will also be possible. Temperatures will fall into the upper
50s to mid 60s overnight.

As high pressure builds into the region, conditions will dry out
Thursday morning and will remain dry through the rest of the short
term period. Initially, the pressure gradient tightens up with the
high moving in so winds will be breezy during the daytime. With
cooler air in place thanks to the cold front, temperatures will only
max out in the 70s, though some valleys will likely exceed 80 thanks
to clearing skies. Overnight, conditions will be cooler than
previous nights as temps fall into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
325 AM Update...

Most of the long term period will be dry as  high pressure will be
present over the region for awhile. Some isolated passing
showers/thunderstorms may be possible over the weekend for NEPA, but
forcing will be weak and moisture will be limited. Models bring a
slight increase in moisture up from the south in the mid to low
levels, but model soundings are dry above the surface, so if
anything can develop, it will be light. There is also a weak surface
front that drops south from Canada later in the weekend, but that
too will run into dry air and most model guidance favors drier
conditions across CNY, at least for now. Monday is favored to be dry
but a weak coastal low along a stationary front tries to bring
showers into the southern half of the region. For now, will PoPs
will remain capped at slight chance late Monday. Seasonable
temperatures are expected with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in the
50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low clouds over north-central NY will slowly pull east of the
area early this morning, lingering longest at RME where Fuel Alt
to IFR conditions will continue through around dawn. Valley fog
is noted in much of PA and the Delaware Valley, but just light
fog is expected at ELM and AVP through morning.

There remains more uncertainty than usual in the timing of
thunderstorms for Tuesday, but the 18-23Z time frame is most
favored for the region as a whole. Attempted to narrow this down
to 3 hour TEMPO groups and where probability for thunder is
lower, PROB30s. The strongest storms will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday Night...Becoming VFR though patchy valley fog is
possible.

Wednesday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015-016-018-
     022>025-036-037-055-056-062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPH/MWG