040
FXUS64 KLCH 111933
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
233 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mid afternoon surface analysis shows a washed out stationary
boundary draped near the south LA coast, while aloft ridging
remains over the Southern Plains. Temperatures currently range
from the low to mid 90s, while dewpoints are in the mid 60s to low
70s, amid sunny skies area-wide. Heading into tonight, the stalled
boundary should gradually slide further inland while becoming
further washed out, before eventually dissipating early tomorrow.
This will open the door for Gulf moisture to make its way back
inland, with this afternoon being our last taste of drier air for
a while. Overnight, dewpoints along and south of I-10 will surge
back into the mid to upper 70s, while inland areas will take a bit
longer for moisture to return. Early morning lows should fall
into the lower to mid 70s inland and in the mid to upper 70s
closer to the coast.

Moving into the work week, moisture return will result in
afternoon highs warming into the mid to upper 90s once again
tomorrow and Tuesday, while dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will
yield afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 100s. Tomorrow it
looks like we`ll remain below Heat Advisory criteria however,
Tuesday some locations will likely flirt with heat indices in the
108-110 range, particularly across lower Acadiana, where an
advisory will likely be needed.

In addition, an increase in moisture may bring small rain chances
back to the forecast this week, but don`t get your hopes up for
any significant rain as the ridge aloft remains firmly in place
overhead for the next several days. NBM wants to pain 15-30 POPs
across the region for both tomorrow and Tuesday afternoon, so a
few isolated showers do look possible however, capping aloft will
likely limit any significant rainfall for time being.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

The mid to upper level ridge will continue to be centered over the
region trough Friday, retrograding slightly west by the weekend as a
mid to upper level trough over the Eastern U.S. deepens. Above
normal temperatures will continue through the extended. Morning low
temperatures in the mid to upper mid 70s north of I-10, near
80/lower 80s I-10 south. Afternoon high temperatures in the upper
90s to near 100 north of I-10, mid to upper 90s further south, with
lower/mid 90s along the coast. Maximum heat index values 105 to 110
expected, possibly higher in some locations. Heat advisories may be
needed for portions if not all of the area any given day.

Limited low level moisture, coupled with afternoon heating, will
yield isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10
corridor. Further north, chances expected to be even less.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mostly clear skies along with light and variable winds will
continue area-wide through the period. No deviations from VFR
conditions are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Winds will gradually return to a southerly flow early tomorrow,
with light south to southwest winds and low seas expected to
continue through the week. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected through much of the week as well, with the best rain
chances through the morning hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  97  75  98 /   0  10   0  10
LCH  77  94  79  94 /   0  30   0  40
LFT  77  98  80  98 /   0  30   0  30
BPT  77  95  78  96 /   0  20   0  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...17