Aryma Labs reposted this
Co-Founder & CEO at Aryma Labs | Building Marketing ROI Solutions For a Privacy First Era | Statistician |
How Google's announcement to not deprecate third party cookies impacted us positively 🚀. In information theory, there is a concept called Entropy. If you want a good refresher, I would highly recommend the article by Naoki (Link in comments). Basically, Low Entropy means receiving very predictable information. High entropy means receiving very unpredictable information (some also define it as an element of surprise). Earlier, there was very high entropy in the marketing measurement and attribution space because Google kept dilly dallying over cookie deprecation. Nobody was exactly sure when it would happen. And even if they went through with it, people had a lot of questions over their privacy sandbox. Would it be accurate? How trustworthy it would be ? etc. were the questions posed by the marketers and advertisers. But On July 22nd,2024 the high entropy turned it to low entropy. Meaning a lot of uncertainty was removed. Google announced that it won't deprecate 3rd party cookies but rather give the option directly to the users to opt-in or not (much like Apple's ATT solution). This signal was enough for marketers and advertisers to really double down on privacy proof marketing measurement methods for 2025 and beyond. We at Aryma Labs saw a significant jump in the number of calls for MMM services/ demos in days just after the Google announcement. But we wanted to be more scientific about this proclamation. 📌 The ITSA method We have been implementing ITSA (Interrupted Time Series Analysis) method for our clients to help them understand the effect of special campaign launches or product launches on the KPI. We decided to apply ITSA to our own data set. This data set comprises of number of calls for MMM services/Demo requests from our website starting from Jan 1st to Aug 16th of this year. Overall out of 8 months, there were 32 days where we got at least 1 service / demo request (pls refer the image). But the most interesting thing to observe is that there has been an increase in flurry of activities post July 22nd. The Highlights of ITSA analysis are as follows (we will be publishing a detailed research paper on this soon). ▪ On an average, before intervention (July 22nd event), we had approximately 1 service request/demo request. ▪ Post intervention, we see that we are getting additional 1 more request !! We also ran a BSTS model to compare, and found similar results as ITSA. The estimate of causal effect of intervention is 0.91. An additional approx. 1 request on average is observed in the post-intervention period compared to the pre-period. We are sure we are not the only ones to experience this uplift in service/demo requests for MMM. Our rivals too could be experiencing the same. As they say, the boat rises with the tide. The tide of privacy proof marketing measurement and attribution is on the rise.