OECD Economic Surveys OECD Economic Surveys ROMANIA ROMANIA Executive Summary January 2022 JANUARY 2022
• Economic growth is strong, but risks are high • Pursuing supportive macroeconomic policies • Fostering an inclusive and sustainable recovery • Creating a thriving business sector
2 . OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ROMANIA – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Main findings Macroeconomic and financial policies • Despite a fast recovery, risks to the outlook are high, notably due to the new wave of the pandemic. • While public debt is still low, it has increased fast, reducing fiscal space and increasing financing risks. • The administrative capacity to absorb EU funds has been limited compared to peers, as reflected in the weakness in the implementation of public investment projects. This could negatively impact the absorption of the NextGeneration EU funds, which are key to support the recovery. • Inflationary pressures and the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring from the central bank’s target have accentuated. The central bank has started increasing the policy interest rate. • The non-performing loan ratio is likely to increase following the end of support measures, as some firms are highly indebted. • The pension system is in deficit and the replacement rates are low. The government has started a revision of the public pension system to restore financial sustainability and improve adequacy under the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
• Tax revenue is low due to poor compliance, which weakens fiscal sustainability. • There is also room to increase taxes that are less distortive to growth, notably property taxes, and to broaden the tax base.
Improving well-being, inclusiveness and green growth • The vaccine rollout has been slow and the vaccination rate remains relatively low, especially in rural areas. Access to some activities is conditioned to the presentation of a COVID-19 certificate attesting vaccination or a negative test. • Too few unemployed register with public employment services. Spending on active labour market policies is low, especially on training programmes. • Too many youth leave school without attaining an upper secondary education level. School closures have deepened learning gaps and accentuated inequality in access to education. The national Recovery and Resilience Plan includes a number of measures to address these issues. • Enrolment in early childhood education is low, especially among Roma and in rural areas. Long-term care services are underdeveloped, undermining women’s labour market participation. Investment in care services is envisaged in the national Recovery and Resilience Plan. • Exposure to very high levels of air pollution and the related number of premature deaths significantly exceed OECD averages. Burning of solid fuels for heating and cooking is a big contributor. • The energy mix is highly dependent on coal, while the share of renewable energy, excluding biomass, is still low. Strengthening productivity growth and business dynamism • Political pressure on the National Anti-Corruption Directorate has weakened fight against corruption. • Legislative instability deteriorates the business climate. •
The licence and permit system imposes burden on businesses.
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ROMANIA – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 3
Key recommendations Macroeconomic and financial policies • Reactivate fiscal support if the economic situation deteriorates, while targeting measures to the most vulnerable and affected. • Establish a credible medium-term consolidation plan and gradually reduce the fiscal deficit to maintain the sustainability of public finances, should the recovery develop as expected. • Ensure an effective implementation of the NextGeneration EU plan by strengthening coordination among stakeholders and monitoring mechanisms. • Continue to gradually increase the policy interest rate if needed to keep inflation expectations well anchored within the target band. • Strengthen the insolvency regime to facilitate debt restructuring, notably by introducing out-of-court mechanisms. • Increase incentives to work longer, notably by harmonising the legal retirement age of women to that of men and increasing it in line with life expectancy gains. • Revise the benefit formula to ensure the financial sustainability of the pension system, while preventing old-age poverty as planned. • Continue the modernisation and computerisation of the tax administration to improve tax collection, notably through higher tax compliance. • Eliminate inefficient reduced tax rates and special tax provisions. • Consider increasing recurrent taxes on immovable property, while exempting the poorest households. Improving well-being, inclusiveness and green growth • Consider extending the COVID-19 certificate to access a broader range of activities and for some professions. • Intensify efforts to reach out the rural population, by multiplying the number of mobile vaccination centres and engaging local actors. • Dedicate more resources to reach vulnerable jobseekers, especially in marginalised communities, and to training programmes.
• Accelerate measures to support students at risk of dropping out of school and to address learning gaps, especially in disadvantaged areas. • Provide affordable and good-quality early childhood education and care and long-term care services. • Expand support to households to transition away from polluting stoves and improve isolation of buildings. Strengthening productivity growth and business dynamism • Provide the National Anti-Corruption Directorate the necessary resources, authorised power and independence to conduct investigations. • Reduce further the use of emergency decrees and conduct a proper impact assessment before implementing new laws. • Simplify the licence and permit system, enhancing the use of online services.
4 . OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ROMANIA – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Economic growth is strong, but risks are high The COVID-19 pandemic put a halt to fast improvements in living standards. While the recovery has been strong, virus resurgence clouds growth prospects, as the vaccination rate is low. Before the pandemic, the economic performance of Romania was impressive. In less than 20 years, Romania has reduced the gap in GDP per capita to the OECD average by half, from close to 70% to around 35%. The population at risk of poverty or social exclusion had fallen to 30% in 2020, from around 50% thirteen years before. Growth is set to remain strong, but risks are high. The crisis hit the economy hard as GDP fell by 3.7% in 2020 before surpassing its pre-crisis level in 2021. The pursuit of the recovery will critically hinge on the developments of the pandemic and the government’s capacity to weather possible future economic shocks. Due to low uptake, the vaccine rollout has been too slow to protect the population against future waves of infection and should accelerate. Figure 1. The pandemic hit the economy hard Real GDP, index 2019=100
105 100
Table 1. GDP growth will remain robust
95 90
Romania OECD Peers
85 80
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Note: Peers consists of Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Poland. Source: OECD Economic Outlook database.
2021
2022
2023
Gross domestic product Consumer price index
6.3
4.5
4.5
5.0
6.6
3.6
Unemployment rate (%) Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
5.4 -8.0
5.2 -6.6
4.8 -5.3
Public debt (Maastricht, % of GDP)
50.3
54.1
57.1
Source: OECD Economic Outlook database and updates.
INTRODUCTION OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ROMANIA – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . .55
Pursuing supportive macroeconomic policies Macroeconomic policies have rightly sizeable the economy since 2020. The sizeable risks to the outlook call for a prudent normalisation. Monetary policy has been rightly accommodative in 2020, but inflation pressures should continue to be closely monitored. Inflation has exceeded the upper bound of the target band of the central bank on the back of increases in energy and food prices. The central bank has increased policy rates since October and should continue raising them if needed to avoid that inflationary pressures become entrenched. Fiscal policy should adapt to economic developments in an agile manner. Support measures should be directed at the most affected, but viable, sectors and firms. A credible medium-term consolidation plan should be established to allow a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit, should the recovery develop as expected. Such a plan should include reforms to accelerate the absorption of EU funds, raise revenue collection, and improve the financial sustainability of the pension system, which are necessary to maintain the sustainability of public finances. Figure 2. Romania will receive large amounts of EU funds Total allocation of EU funds, % of GDP 30
RRF Grants (current prices)
25
Cohesion policy (current prices)
20 15 10
Source: OECD calculations.
LVA
HUN
SVK
ROU
POL
LTU
EST
CZE
SVN
0
OECD EU
5
Romania should make the most of EU funds, seizing the opportunity offered by the NextGeneration EU Plan. Under this scheme, Romania will receive a large amount of grants that will be used to finance the national Recovery and Resilience Plan. An effective implementation of these plans will require strengthening administrative capacity, notably for the oversight of projects, while implementing the associated structural reforms. Reforming the pension system is urgent. The 2019 pension law is being reconsidered, as it undermines the sustainability of public finances and limits resources available for education, healthcare, social assistance, and infrastructure, which would be more effective at supporting the recovery. Incentives to expand working lives and policies to improve the employability of old-age workers need strengthening. Reforms can improve efficiency and equity in the tax system. Accelerating the on-going modernisation of the tax administration as planned is crucial to improve tax collection. Removing inefficient tax expenditures and increasing less distortive taxes could be used to reduce more distortive taxes, boosting growth potential.
6 . OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ROMANIA – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fostering an inclusive and sustainable recovery Improving access to high-quality healthcare, education and jobs is key to resume progress in living standards. Meeting environmental challenges should be a priority.
500 450 400
EST
POL
SVN
CZE
OECD
LVA
HUN
300
LTU
350
ROU
LVA
LTU
Health outcomes have improved over the past decades, but access to healthcare remains constrained for many citizens due to acute shortages of medical staff and low public health insurance coverage. Unmet medical needs and the death rates from preventable and treatable causes are high. The pandemic put strong pressure on hospitals.
EST
OECD
POL
HUN
SVK
SVN
CZE
550
Source: OECD PISA 2018 Results, Volume I.
Figure 3. Poverty remains elevated Percentage of population, 2019 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Figure 4. Educational outcomes are below the OECD average PISA score in reading, 2018
SVK
Like in OECD countries, the integration in the formal labour market of people with low level of educational attainment, especially youth, women and Roma, is difficult. Low participation rates coexist with labour shortages. High inequality in educational outcomes and modernisation needs in vocational education partly explain skills mismatch. The insufficient provision of childcare and long-term care is also detrimental to women participation in the labour market.
Effectiveness and targeting of active labour market policies can improve, not least by offering appropriate up-skilling and re-skilling options to the unemployed.
ROU
Regional disparities in living standards and economic opportunities are large and widening like in many EU countries. While Bucharest and many secondary cities have become hubs of prosperity and innovation, poverty remains widespread in rural areas. The COVID-19 crisis has aggravated poverty risks, especially in marginalised communities.
Source: OECD Income Distribution Database.
Providing adequate skills to all citizens is a precondition to improve labour market performance. The impact of socioeconomic background on educational outcomes is large. School closures in 2020 and 2021 have disproportionally affected disadvantaged students, increasing learning gaps. Participation in adult education is very low, despite fast changing labour market needs. Efforts should concentrate on vulnerable students and low skilled adults, and the government rightly plans to allocate more resources to disadvantaged schools. Public support to job seekers needs strengthening. The COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated barriers for individuals with low employability to integrate the labour market. A large number of unemployed do not use public employment services, calling for developing reach-out mechanisms.
Tackling air pollution is a priority to improve citizens’ health as it contributes to a relatively large number of premature deaths in Romania. Romania has made remarkable progress in decoupling greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth, but meeting the current 2030 target to reduce emissions by 2% with respect to 2005 levels requires further investments in low-emission technologies and improvements in energy efficiency. The Recovery and Resilience Plan should be used to foster such investments, while financial incentives to change behaviours and reduce environmental damages should be strengthened.
OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF ROMANIA – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 7 INTRODUCTION
Creating a thriving business sector Productivity growth has been impressive, but has decelerated over the past decade. Reforms supporting business dynamism and addressing infrastructure gaps are central to foster productivity gains. Improving the competition and regulatory framework can help to boost productivity. In spite of some progress made to reduce the administrative burden, the complex licence and permit system still imposes a heavy burden on businesses. Entry barriers in professional services remain high. The presence of low-performing state-owned enterprises distorts the allocation of resources.
Trust in institutions is low and corruption remains a major issue. The recent legal amendments affecting the judicial system and pressures on the National Anti-corruption Directorate (DNA) have weakened the fight against corruption. The amendments should be repealed as planned and the DNA should have the necessary resources, authorised power and independence to conduct investigations.
Inefficiencies in the insolvency regime are hindering creative destruction. Many non-viable firms survive to the detriment of new, more creative ones. Successful reorganisation of indebted companies is rare because companies enter the insolvency process late. Institutional reforms, such as the introduction of early warning mechanisms and out-of-court proceedings can facilitate the reorganisation of viable firms and the exit of the others.
Transport infrastructure gaps are large. Addressing them can have a substantial positive impact on regional development and the integration in global value chains. Despite some improvement, the absorption of EU funds for large infrastructure investments remains slow, due to the low quality of projects preparation. It is essential to ensure policy consistency between the long-term infrastructure strategy and the implementation of investment plans and to improve the administrative capacity to deal with large projects.
While access to finance is good overall, young innovative firms and SMEs in remote areas face financing difficulties. Start-ups can be better supported by targeted grants or the introduction of an investment fund for venture capital financing. The national development bank envisaged in the Recovery and Resilience Plan could support SMEs by addressing some dysfunctions in the financial markets and improve access to finance in rural areas. Unpredictability of the regulatory environment can hold back business investment. The extensive use of emergency ordinances without proper impact assessment and stakeholders’ consultation in the past increased uncertainty with adverse effects of economic activity. Recent progress should continue, as the Recovery and Resilience Plan aims to strengthen policy stability.
Figure 5. The regulatory framework can improve Index 0 (worst) – 6 (best), 2018 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
ROU
OECD
Public Ownership Simplification and Admin. Burden on Evaluation of Start-ups Regulations
Source: OECD PMR Indicators.
OECD Economic Surveys
ROMANIA
Over the last two decades, Romania has converged rapidly towards the OECD average income per capita. Its economy has also proved resilient: after a deep contraction in 2020 triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, activity has rebounded fast. However, short and medium term challenges remain. The recent surge in inflation and the new pandemic wave require prudent macroeconomic policies. Eventually, fiscal sustainability needs to improve to cope with ageing. Productivity levels remain well below the OECD average, calling for reducing competition barriers, raising human capital, enhancing the regulatory framework, and improving transport infrastructure. Romania should seize the opportunity provided by the NextGeneration EU plan to boost investments for the green and digital transitions. Poverty remains high and some groups have difficulties to join the labour market. Active labour market policies need to be reinforced and access to training is a pre-requisite for addressing skills shortages. Finally, pursuing convergence to the highest OECD standards requires improving the rule of law and fighting corruption. SPECIAL FEATURE: STRENGTHENING THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT FOR PRODUCTIVITY CONVERGENCE; IMPROVING LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS FOR STRONGER AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH.
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