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Saturday, February 3, 2024

Iran Update, February 3, 2024

Brian Carter, Amin Soltani, Johanna Moore, Kathryn Tyson

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET 

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on February 3 and 4, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, February 5, 2024. 

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

The February 2 US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iranian-backed militia positions along the Euphrates River in Syria, the Iraq-Syria border, and south of Baghdad, Iraq. An anonymous US official told Politico that the United States struck all of its planned targets and several “dynamic targets that popped up as the mission unfolded,” including surface-to-air missile systems and drone launch sites.[1] Two unspecified US officials also told the New York Times that the United States conducted unspecified cyber attacks targeting Iran on February 2.[2]

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported that the strikes hit the al Qaim district, Anbar province, targeting the PMF Anbar Operations “mobile” headquarters, an element of the 13th PMF Brigade, and two 45th PMF Brigade positions.[3] The strikes also hit an artillery position, and multiple “armor” sites. The 13th Brigade is Liwa al Tufuf, an Iranian-backed militia controlled by Kataib Hezbollah.[4] Liwa al Tufuf has facilitated Iranian supply lines through al Qaim border crossing with Syria.[5] The 45th Brigade is one arm of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy militia. Iranian-backed Badr Organization leader Hadi al Ameri added that the strikes targeted Jurf al Sakhr, a previously Sunni town south of Baghdad that Kataib Hezbollah occupied after committing acts of sectarian cleansing against the previous residents.[6]

The Iraqi prime minister formally commands the PMF, but “power and political realities“ mean that large portions of the PMF, including Liwa al Tufuf and Kataib Hezbollah, answer to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).[7] The PMF’s leader, Popular Mobilization Commission Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh, has operated alongside IRGC Quds Force operatives to implement Iranian directives in Iraq.[8] The Popular Mobilization Commission is technically responsible for ensuring that the militias that make up the PMF answer to the Iraqi government.[9] Fayyadh’s installation as the chairman and his relationship with the IRGC safeguards the PMF from actual central government control.

A local Syrian source reported that the US strikes targeted Iranian-backed positions in Albu Kamal, a railway crossing west of Albu Kamal, the outskirts of Mayadeen, Deir ez Zor City, Ayyash (west of Deir ez Zor), and Tabani (west of Deir ez Zor).[10] Iranian-backed militias are active in Albu Kamal, Deir ez Zor City, and Mayadeen. The railway crossing west of Albu Kamal runs along the edge of Imam Ali military base, which is a key Iranian military base in Syria.[11]

Iran, its partners in Iraq, and the Iraqi government falsely claimed that the strikes were violations of Iraqi sovereignty.[12] Western media outlets reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah launched the attack from Rutba, Anbar province, western Iraq.[13] The United States has the right to respond and defend itself against these attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. Iranian-backed groups in Iraq are themselves violating Iraqi sovereignty by launching attacks from Iraqi territory targeting US forces in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government and American assets elsewhere in the region.

Key Takeaways:

  • Iraq and Syria: The February 2 US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iranian-backed militia positions along the Euphrates River in Syria, the Iraq-Syria border, and south of Baghdad, Iraq.
  • The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported that the strikes hit al Qaim district, Anbar province, targeting the PMF Anbar Operations “mobile” headquarters, an element of the 13th PMF Brigade (Liwa al Tufuf), and two 45th PMF Brigade (Kataib Hezbollah) positions.[14]
  • The Iraqi prime minister formally commands the PMF, but “power and political realities” mean that large portions of the PMF, including Liwa al Tufuf and Kataib Hezbollah, answer to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
  • A local Syrian source reported that the US strikes targeted Iranian-backed positions in Albu Kamal, a railway crossing west of Albu Kamal, the outskirts of Mayadeen, Deir ez Zor City, Ayyash (west of Deir ez Zor), and Tabani (west of Deir ez Zor).
  • Iran, its partners in Iraq, and the Iraqi government falsely claimed that the strikes were violations of Iraqi sovereignty.
  • Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias are continuing to infiltrate southwestern Gaza City. The militias, including Hamas, have conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces in Tel al Hawa since January 31.
  • The Red Sea: US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces shot down eight Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea on February 2. CENTCOM also conducted preemptive strikes targeting four drones that the Houthis had prepared to launch towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea on February 2.
  • Iraq: IRGC-controlled and local Syrian media claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted four drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on February 3. Three ”security sources” told Reuters that there was no attack targeting the al Harir airbase.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
  • Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian fighters continued their efforts aimed at disrupting Israeli operations in the northern Gaza Strip on February 3.[15] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah, fired small arms and mortars targeting Israeli forces in central and western Gaza City.[16] The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a leftist militia aligned with Hamas in the current war, targeted Israeli forces in western Gaza City.[17] Hamas fighters mortared Israeli forces in the al Jamia area, in southwestern Gaza City.[18]

Palestinian militias are continuing to infiltrate southwestern Gaza City. The militias, including Hamas, have conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces in Tel al Hawa since January 31.[19]

Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces with small arms fire and mortar rounds in Khan Younis City on February 3.[20]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in western Khan Younis on February 3.[21] Israeli forces raided a building used by Palestinian fighters and captured weapons and tunnel shafts inside.[22]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias seven times across the West Bank on February 3.[23] Israeli forces detained seven wanted individuals and confiscated weapons in the West Bank on February 3.[24]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
  • Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on February 3.[25]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
  • Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces shot down eight Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea on February 2. CENTCOM also conducted preemptive strikes targeting four drones that the Houthis had prepared to launch towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea on February 2.[26] CENTCOM conducted the preemptive self-defense strikes after determining that the drones presented an “imminent threat” to merchant vessels and US Navy ships.

IRGC-controlled and local Syrian media claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted four drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on February 3.[27] IRGC-controlled media claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces at al Harir Airbase, Erbil Province and Ain al Assad Airbase, Anbar Province, Iraq.[28] Three “security sources” told Reuters that there was no attack targeting the al Harir airbase.[29] IRGC-controlled and local Syrian media also claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed at the al Tanf garrison, Homs Province, and Rumaylan Landing Zone, Hasakah Province, Syria.[30] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq did not claim either of the attacks in Iraq and Syria on its Telegram account.

 


[1] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/03/an-iranian-backed-militia-offic...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/02/us/politics/us-iran-sanctions-charges...

[3] https://t.me/teamsmediawar_1/98240

[4] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-liwa-al-tafu...

[5] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/profile-liwa-al-tafu...

[6] https://t.me/platformB/2534

[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Iraq%20-%20ISF%20PM...

[8] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1231

[9] https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1231

[10] https://twitter.com/DeirEzzore/status/1753714182795538773

[11] https://sethfrantzman.com/2019/12/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-i...

[12] https://twitter.com/IraqiPMO/status/1753721427176399008https://twitter.com/IraqiPresidency/status/1753739809925861832https://t.me/platformB/2534https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/14/3033416

[13] https://twitter.com/SkyNewsArabia_B/status/1751707831579902225

[14] https://t.me/teamsmediawar_1/98240

[15] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5614 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5615 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5616 ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4121

[16] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5614 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5615

[17] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4121

[18] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1536

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[20] https://t.me/sarayaps/17368 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1535 ; https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4119 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17372 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5619

[21] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753672883849613345 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753672885825114277 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753672888077390166 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753672890321420707

[22] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753672885825114277https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753672888077390166

[23] https://t.me/QudsN/365888; https://t.me/QudsN/365918; https://t.me/QudsN/365923; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5613; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5618; https://t.me/newpress1/66637

[24] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753785960758665636

[25] https://t.me/C_Military1/45174; https://t.me/C_Military1/45176; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1753759302211236031; https://t.me/C_Military1/45191; https://t.me/C_Military1/45193; https://t.me/C_Military1/45196; https://t.me/C_Military1/45198; https://t.me/C_Military1/45200; https://t.me/C_Military1/45201

[26] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1753772895241969967?s=20

[27] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/02/03/3033208/; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/14/3033610; https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14021114000447; https://x.com/OALD24/status/1753776523314622525?s=20

[28] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/02/03/3033208; https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14021114000447

[29] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/islamic-resistance-iraq-milita...

[30] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/14/3033610; https://www.tasnimnews dot com/en/news/2024/02/03/3033208; https://x.com/OALD24/status/1753776523314622525?s=20

Saturday, January 20, 2024

Iran Update, January 20, 2024

Annika Ganzeveld, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on January 20 and 21, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume on Monday, January 22, 2024.

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

  • Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eastern Jabalia on January 20. A local Gazan activist also reported that an Israeli armor convoy reentered eastern Jabalia from the Gaza “envelope.”
  • The IDF 7th Armored Brigade continued clearing operations in Khan Younis City on January 20.
  • Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces three times across Nablus Governorate in the West Bank on January 19.
  • Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel targeting Israeli military facilities.
  • The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a missile attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, on January 20.
  • The IRGC announced on January 20 that Israel killed five IRGC “advisors” in an airstrike on Al Mazzah, Damascus, Syria
  • US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted two separate preemptive airstrikes on January 19 and 20 targeting anti-ship missiles that the Houthis had prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
  • Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in eastern Jabalia on January 20. The al Qassem brigades fired small arms and Yasin-105 rockets at Israeli forces in the al Jaabari area of eastern Jabalia.[1] A local Gazan activist also reported that an Israeli armor convoy reentered eastern Jabalia from the Gaza “envelope.”[2] The Gaza Envelope describes populated areas in southern Israel that are within seven kilometers of the Israel-Gaza border. Commercially available satellite imagery also shows fresh tank tracks east of Jabalia, corroborating this report.

The al Quds Brigades, the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, fired small arms at Israeli forces advancing in Bureij and Maghazi in the Gaza Strip’s Central Governorate.[3]

The IDF 7th Armored Brigade continued clearing operations in Khan Younis City on January 20.[4] Israeli forces raided a militia compound, destroyed six rocket launchers, and found a tunnel shaft in the surrounding area.

Palestinian fighters conducted multiple mortar attacks targeting Israeli forces operating in Khan Younis. The al Quds Brigades fighters mortared an Israeli combat outpost in southern Khan Younis and an Israeli position at Rumaydah, east of Khan Younis City.[5] The al Qassem Brigades mortared Israeli forces advancing in the northern and southern areas of Khan Younis.[6]

The Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa Brigade—the militant wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine —claimed one rocket attack targeting unspecified targets in Israel.[7]

 

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli forces three times across Nablus Governorate in the West Bank on January 19.[8]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
  • Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) conducted three attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel targeting Israeli military facilities.[9]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

  • Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
  • Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for a missile attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province, Iraq, on January 20.[10] A US official told Reuters that “multiple theater ballistic missiles” hit the airbase, causing several minor injuries to US personnel and “severe injuries” to Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) members.[11]

The IRGC announced on January 20 that Israel killed five IRGC “advisors” in an airstrike on Al Mazzah, Damascus, Syria.[12] Among the killed individuals were Brigadier General Sadegh Omid Zadeh, the IRGC Quds Force’s intelligence deputy in Syria, and Omid Zadeh’s deputy, Haj Gholam.[13] A June 2023 Washington Post article citing leaked documents, which CTP-ISW has not reviewed, reported that Omid Zadeh worked with Iranian proxies in Syria, such as LH, to develop EFPs to target US forces.[14] The Washington Post reported, citing the leaked documents, that Omid Zadeh was responsible for “identifying US Humvee and Cougar armored vehicles in Syria” as EFP targets.

Iranian officials vowed retaliation against Israel for the killing of the five IRGC officers. Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani stated that Iran reserves the right to respond to Israel’s “organized terrorism” at an “appropriate time and place.”[15] Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf similarly stated that Israel will face a “harsh punishment” for killing the IRGC officers.[16]

US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted two separate preemptive airstrikes on January 19 and 20 targeting anti-ship missiles that the Houthis had prepared to launch from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.[17] CENTCOM conducted the self-defense strikes after determining that the anti-ship missiles presented an "imminent threat” to merchant vessels and US Navy ships.

 


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[4] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1748602301894242618

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[7] https://t.me/kataebabuali/10602

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[9] https://t.me/C_Military1/44404 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/44406 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/44413

[10] https://t.me/elamharbi/236

[11] https://twitter.com/DanWilliams/status/1748726192633422161

[12] https://www.presstv dot ir/Detail/2024/01/20/718564/Israeli-regime-airstrike-Damascus-IRGC

[13] https://nournews dot ir/Fa/News/161853

[14] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/01/discord-leaks-iran-russi...

[15] https://www.farsnews dot ir/news/14021030000921

[16] https://www.iribnews dot ir/fa/news/4128801

[17] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1748469686470160775 ; https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1748726814334214404