ISW Blog: Syria

Sunday, February 11, 2024

Iran Update, February 11, 2024

Ashka Jhaveri, Andie Parry, Peter Mills, Annika Ganzeveld,
Alexandra Braverman, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

Key Takeaways:

Northern and central Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in the northern and central Gaza Strip.
Southern Gaza Strip: Hamas, Egyptian, and Houthi officials issued threats likely to dissuade the IDF from a military operation into Rafah.
West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters twice.
Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
Syria: Likely Iranian-backed militants tried to conduct a drone attack targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria.
Yemen: US Central Command forces conducted self-defense strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles and unmanned surface vessels.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) clashed with Palestinian fighters in the northern and central Gaza Strip on February 11. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) mortared Israeli military positions east of Gaza City.[1] The PFLP is a secular leftist Palestinian faction fighting with Hamas. The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fired rockets at an Israeli military position in southeast Gaza City.[2] The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement is a Palestinian faction aligned with Hamas and has expressed close ties with Iran. The IDF Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) clashed with and killed Palestinian fighters targeting Israeli forces with anti-tank missiles in the central Gaza Strip.[3] Israeli aircraft targeted a weapons warehouse and Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip.[4]

Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western and eastern Khan Younis on February 11. The IDF 35th Paratroopers Brigade and 89th Commando Brigade (both assigned to the 98th Division) clashed with Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis.[5] The 646th Brigade (assigned to the 99th Division) launched a new clearing operation in eastern Khan Younis and detained approximately 60 Palestinian fighters.[6] Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces in eastern Khan Younis.[7] The IDF 98th Division directed airstrikes targeting three weapons depots and a Palestinian militia squad in Khan Younis.[8] The commander of the 98th Division stated that Israeli forces have “dismantled and destroyed” Hamas in Khan Younis both under and above ground.[9]

The IDF reported on February 11 that its 84th Givati Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) “deepened” the damage it inflicted on Hamas’ Western Khan Younis Battalion.[10] Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade is composed of five battalions.[11] The Givati Brigade killed about 100 Palestinian fighters in several clashes using tanks, small arms, and air support “in the last few weeks.” Israeli forces “expanded” ground operations in western Khan Younis on January 22.[12]

Hamas, Egyptian, and Houthi officials issued threats likely to dissuade the IDF from a military operation into Rafah on February 11. An unspecified senior Hamas official speaking to a Hamas-affiliated outlet said that an Israeli ground incursion into Rafah would “torpedo” hostage exchange negotiations.[13] Two Egyptian officials and a Western diplomat told the Associated Press that an Israeli ground operation in Rafah would freeze the Egypt-Israel Camp David Accords peace treaty.[14] A senior Houthi official warned that the Houthi movement would intensify attacks against Israel if the IDF entered Rafah.[15] Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an interview with ABC that Israeli forces would “provide safe passage” to Gazan civilians from Rafah to unspecified, already cleared areas north of Rafah and reiterated that the IDF will enter Rafah in the near future.[16]

Palestinian fighters did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on February 11.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters twice across the West Bank on February 11.[17]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah conducted five attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on February 11.[18]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

Likely Iranian-backed militants tried to conduct a drone attack targeting US forces at Conoco Mission Support Site in Deir ez Zor Province, Syria, on February 10.[19] US air defense systems intercepted the drones.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted self-defense strikes targeting Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCM) and unmanned surface vessels (USV) on February 10.[20] CENTCOM forces struck three mobile ASCMs and two USVs north of Hudaydah in Yemen. CENTCOM conducted the preemptive, self-defense strikes after determining that the ASCMs and USVs presented an “imminent threat” to merchant vessels and US Navy ships in the Red Sea.

[1] https://t.me/abualiajel/131

[2] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4350

[3] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756578357544677388

[4] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1756578367325786130

[5] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756578359218241910

[6] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1756577961585565893

[7] https://t.me/abualiajel/131; https://t.me/sarayaps/17420; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5699

[8] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756578405984752010

[9] https://www.idf dot il/179530; https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1756404988748697783

[10] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1756619544502694370

[11] The Order of Battle of Hamas’ Izz al Din al Qassem Brigades Part 2 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

[12] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1749460612860592320

[13] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/50297 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-any-israeli-ground-...

[14] https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-02-11-2014-785309c668e1...

[15] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1402/11/22/3037546

[16] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68266335 ; https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/defying-biden-israels-netanyahu-do...

[17] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5696 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5701

[18] https://t.me/mmirleb/1967 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1969 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1971 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1973 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/1975

[19] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-led-coalition-blocks-attacks-conoco-oil...

[20] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1756664675771551921

Saturday, February 3, 2024

Iran Update, February 3, 2024

Brian Carter, Amin Soltani, Johanna Moore, Kathryn Tyson

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on February 3 and 4, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, February 5, 2024.

The February 2 US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iranian-backed militia positions along the Euphrates River in Syria, the Iraq-Syria border, and south of Baghdad, Iraq. An anonymous US official told Politico that the United States struck all of its planned targets and several “dynamic targets that popped up as the mission unfolded,” including surface-to-air missile systems and drone launch sites.[1] Two unspecified US officials also told the New York Times that the United States conducted unspecified cyber attacks targeting Iran on February 2.[2]

The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported that the strikes hit the al Qaim district, Anbar province, targeting the PMF Anbar Operations “mobile” headquarters, an element of the 13th PMF Brigade, and two 45th PMF Brigade positions.[3] The strikes also hit an artillery position, and multiple “armor” sites. The 13th Brigade is Liwa al Tufuf, an Iranian-backed militia controlled by Kataib Hezbollah.[4] Liwa al Tufuf has facilitated Iranian supply lines through al Qaim border crossing with Syria.[5] The 45th Brigade is one arm of Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy militia. Iranian-backed Badr Organization leader Hadi al Ameri added that the strikes targeted Jurf al Sakhr, a previously Sunni town south of Baghdad that Kataib Hezbollah occupied after committing acts of sectarian cleansing against the previous residents.[6]

The Iraqi prime minister formally commands the PMF, but “power and political realities“ mean that large portions of the PMF, including Liwa al Tufuf and Kataib Hezbollah, answer to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).[7] The PMF’s leader, Popular Mobilization Commission Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh, has operated alongside IRGC Quds Force operatives to implement Iranian directives in Iraq.[8] The Popular Mobilization Commission is technically responsible for ensuring that the militias that make up the PMF answer to the Iraqi government.[9] Fayyadh’s installation as the chairman and his relationship with the IRGC safeguards the PMF from actual central government control.

A local Syrian source reported that the US strikes targeted Iranian-backed positions in Albu Kamal, a railway crossing west of Albu Kamal, the outskirts of Mayadeen, Deir ez Zor City, Ayyash (west of Deir ez Zor), and Tabani (west of Deir ez Zor).[10] Iranian-backed militias are active in Albu Kamal, Deir ez Zor City, and Mayadeen. The railway crossing west of Albu Kamal runs along the edge of Imam Ali military base, which is a key Iranian military base in Syria.[11]

Iran, its partners in Iraq, and the Iraqi government falsely claimed that the strikes were violations of Iraqi sovereignty.[12] Western media outlets reported that Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah launched the attack from Rutba, Anbar province, western Iraq.[13] The United States has the right to respond and defend itself against these attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. Iranian-backed groups in Iraq are themselves violating Iraqi sovereignty by launching attacks from Iraqi territory targeting US forces in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government and American assets elsewhere in the region.

Key Takeaways:

Iraq and Syria: The February 2 US airstrikes in Iraq and Syria targeted Iranian-backed militia positions along the Euphrates River in Syria, the Iraq-Syria border, and south of Baghdad, Iraq.
The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) reported that the strikes hit al Qaim district, Anbar province, targeting the PMF Anbar Operations “mobile” headquarters, an element of the 13th PMF Brigade (Liwa al Tufuf), and two 45th PMF Brigade (Kataib Hezbollah) positions.[14]
The Iraqi prime minister formally commands the PMF, but “power and political realities” mean that large portions of the PMF, including Liwa al Tufuf and Kataib Hezbollah, answer to the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
A local Syrian source reported that the US strikes targeted Iranian-backed positions in Albu Kamal, a railway crossing west of Albu Kamal, the outskirts of Mayadeen, Deir ez Zor City, Ayyash (west of Deir ez Zor), and Tabani (west of Deir ez Zor).
Iran, its partners in Iraq, and the Iraqi government falsely claimed that the strikes were violations of Iraqi sovereignty.
Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian militias are continuing to infiltrate southwestern Gaza City. The militias, including Hamas, have conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces in Tel al Hawa since January 31.
The Red Sea: US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces shot down eight Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea on February 2. CENTCOM also conducted preemptive strikes targeting four drones that the Houthis had prepared to launch towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea on February 2.
Iraq: IRGC-controlled and local Syrian media claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted four drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on February 3. Three ”security sources” told Reuters that there was no attack targeting the al Harir airbase.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian fighters continued their efforts aimed at disrupting Israeli operations in the northern Gaza Strip on February 3.[15] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, the self-proclaimed militant wing of Fatah, fired small arms and mortars targeting Israeli forces in central and western Gaza City.[16] The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, a leftist militia aligned with Hamas in the current war, targeted Israeli forces in western Gaza City.[17] Hamas fighters mortared Israeli forces in the al Jamia area, in southwestern Gaza City.[18]

Palestinian militias are continuing to infiltrate southwestern Gaza City. The militias, including Hamas, have conducted ten attacks targeting Israeli forces in Tel al Hawa since January 31.[19]

Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces with small arms fire and mortar rounds in Khan Younis City on February 3.[20]

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in western Khan Younis on February 3.[21] Israeli forces raided a building used by Palestinian fighters and captured weapons and tunnel shafts inside.[22]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian militias seven times across the West Bank on February 3.[23] Israeli forces detained seven wanted individuals and confiscated weapons in the West Bank on February 3.[24]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted nine attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel on February 3.[25]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces shot down eight Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea on February 2. CENTCOM also conducted preemptive strikes targeting four drones that the Houthis had prepared to launch towards the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea on February 2.[26] CENTCOM conducted the preemptive self-defense strikes after determining that the drones presented an “imminent threat” to merchant vessels and US Navy ships.

IRGC-controlled and local Syrian media claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted four drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in Iraq and Syria on February 3.[27] IRGC-controlled media claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces at al Harir Airbase, Erbil Province and Ain al Assad Airbase, Anbar Province, Iraq.[28] Three “security sources” told Reuters that there was no attack targeting the al Harir airbase.[29] IRGC-controlled and local Syrian media also claimed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces stationed at the al Tanf garrison, Homs Province, and Rumaylan Landing Zone, Hasakah Province, Syria.[30] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq did not claim either of the attacks in Iraq and Syria on its Telegram account.