To date, 191 of the 201 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q1 2024, representing 95% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 73% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 1% delivered on-target results and 26% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q1 2024 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 22.6%.
The blended revenue growth estimate for the 201 companies in this index is 4.0% for Q1 2024. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 53% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 47% reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.
Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
THIS WEEK IN RETAIL
The activewear segment has proven resilient, particularly evident during the first quarter where Lululemon surpassed revenue and earnings expectations. Despite falling slightly short of its same-store sales (SSS) estimate with a 6.0% increase compared to the anticipated 7.2%, Lululemon’s performance remains healthy, especially considering the challenging comparison to the previous year. While growth in the U.S. market has tapered, the company is experiencing significant traction in international markets, particularly noteworthy is the impressive 52% revenue surge in China.
Notably, women’s revenue climbed by 10%, while men’s saw a remarkable 15% increase. Although the first quarter presented some missed opportunities in the women’s category, there’s still considerable potential for growth within the men’s segment in the U.S. Looking forward, Lululemon is optimistic about its performance in the latter half of the year, with plans to introduce innovative designs. Additionally, the company aims to bolster brand visibility through various upcoming events, including sponsorship of the Canadian Olympic team this year. Lululemon has raised its full-year outlook.
Elsewhere in the market, some discount retailers reported their quarterly results this week. Dollar Tree fell short on SSS expectations but exceeded earnings and revenue projections. The company’s core consumer base is grappling with persistent inflationary pressures. Dollar Tree is strategically closing underperforming Family Dollar stores to bolster growth under its flagship brand.
Conversely, Ollie’s Bargain outperformed expectations, surpassing first-quarter earnings, revenue, and SSS estimates. Analysts polled by LSEG expressed bullish sentiment toward Ollie’s Bargain’s Q1 performance, noting its ongoing expansion through
cost-effective acquisitions.
Here are the Q1 2024 earnings and same store sales estimates for the companies reporting this week:
Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q1 2024
Source: LSEG I/B/E/S
