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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI ECB WATCH: ECB Cuts 25BP, Does Not Commit To Rate Path
MNI: Fight Over Jobs Delays Naming Of EU Commissioners-Sources
MNI BRIEF: ECB Cuts Deposit Rate 25Bp To 3.5%
MNI US Inflation Insight, Sep'24: 25bp Cut Looks Locked In
MNI: PBOC Seen Cutting Repo Rate Soon, Boosting Bond Trades
Bettors Continue To See Harris As Slight Favourite Following First Debate
Vice Presidential Kamala Harris maintains her slight post-debate edge over former President Donald Trump, according to data from betting markets.
- Election Betting Odds, a site that aggregates real-time data from various betting and prediction markets, shows Harris with a 51.8% implied probability of winning to Trump's 47.1%.
- Although it is too soon for accurate polling of the post-debate environment, a poll released today by Insider Advantage - based on survey data collected before the debate - shows Trump leading Harris in Michigan 49%-48%.
- The poll is significantly more bullish on Trump than polling averages for the state (~Harris +2) and appears to support a widely reported NYT-Siena College poll released on Sunday that suggested the race may be tightening following a surge of enthusiasm from Harris, from the Biden-Harris switch.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source: Election Betting Odds
Trump Unlikely To Benefit From Polling Bias In Rust Belt, Sabato
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has published a piece examining the likelihood of a similar polling bias that underestimated former President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020 occurring again in 2024.
- In those elections, the bias was particularly pronounced in the Rust Belt states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with the latter registering a major (~7%) miss on both occasions. If Trump were to be underestimated in these states again, he is a near certainty to win in November. However, Sabato concludes, “there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.”
- Sabato: “For one thing, other indicators do not really suggest that we’re in the midst of an electoral environment that is much stronger for Republicans than the past two elections (those indicators include special elections in 2023 and 2024 and the recent Washington state top-two primary).
- “While Democrats have now nominated three different opponents against Donald Trump, Trump himself will be on the ballot for a third straight time. It just doesn’t seem likely to us that he will do markedly better than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which is what would happen if the polls were biased against him again.”
Figure 1: 2016 final polling average versus actual results
Source: Sabato’s Crystal Ball
UK, US, France, Germany Warn Of Accelerating Iranian Nuclear Programme
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, (the Quad) have issued a joint statement warning that Iran's failure to implement guidelines outlined by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, could indicate that Iran is developing nuclear weapons capabilities.
- Joint statement: "Given Iran’s history of undeclared nuclear facilities, past and current unresolved questions, and several public statements made by current and former Iranian officials concerning Iran’s technical capabilities to produce nuclear weapons, Iran’s actions further fuel serious doubts over whether Iran’s nuclear activities remain exclusively peaceful."
- A separate E3 statement, released earlier today without the US, noted: "Iran now has almost 4 IAEA significant quantities of high enriched uranium - the approximate amount of nuclear material from which the possibility of manufacturing a nuclear explosive device cannot be excluded."
- The statement comes as tensions in the Middle East remain high, despite receding fears of a retaliatory Iranian strike on Israel.
- Axios reportsthat an "elite IDF unit" conducted a "highly unusual" raid in Syria on Sunday that destroyed an underground precision missile factory purportedly built by Iran.
- Axios notes: "Israeli airstrikes on Syria have increased since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel as cross-border conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel intensified. But the raid on Sunday was the first ground operation the IDF has conducted in recent years against Iranian targets in Syria."
VENEZUELA-US Sanctions Court Chief & Officials Over 'Fraudulent' Election
The US hasimposed sanctionson 16 Venezuelan officials, including Supreme Court President Caryslia Rodríguez, electoral council director Rosalba Gil and Secretary General Antonio Meneses, National Assembly Vice President Pedro Infante and Asdrubal Brito, Director of Criminal Investigations of the Directorate-General of Military Counter-Intelligence.
- Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said that the US is "targeting key officials involved in Maduro’s fraudulent and illegitimate claims of victory and his brutal crackdown on free expression following the election, as the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans call for change,” adding "The Biden-Harris administration will continue to use our tools to hold Maduro and his cronies accountable and support the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people.”
- The sanctions come six weeks after the election that President Nicolas Maduro claims to have won, but that the opposition says was fraudulent, a view endorsed by the US and EU. With opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez seeking political asylum in Spain, and opposition figurehead Maria Corina Machado in hiding, the prospect of Maduro's ouster - at least in the short term - is reduced. As such, the prospect of tighter sanctions coming down the line on both individuals and entities related to Venezuela's oil industry is elevated.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.