Despite being six years old, the Switch is somehow selling more than it did last year, which creates an unexpected issue for the Switch 2.
Any gamer knows not to try and predict Nintendo, but while their logic may often seem inscrutable it usually makes a lot more sense when you consider that Nintendo makes most of its decisions based on its home market in Japan.
That might seem unwise for a global company but it’s an approach that has served them well for decades and the fact that the Nintendo Switch has sold more consoles this year than last in Japan is likely to have a major effect on their future plans.
According to new data, Switch sales for this financial year are ahead of 2022, with demand in Japan increasing in the console’s sixth year. That means that although a 2024 launch is still the best guess for the Switch 2, it’s by no means guaranteed.
The difference in sales is small, 2.28 million compared to 2.15 million, and well off the console’s peak of a few years ago, but it’s still extremely healthy and Nintendo with be reticent about pulling the trigger on a new console when the original is still selling so well.
Switch hardware sales doubled in Japan, to 110,241 units, after the release of a Super Mario Edition of the console. Although the only thing that’s Mario about it is that both Joy-Cons are red and there’s some special printing on the back of the dock – a silhouette of Mario and some coins.
Similar special editions have also boosted sales recently in Japan, while the launch of Super Mario Bros. Wonder on October 20 should have an even greater effect.
Officially, the closest Nintendo has come to acknowledging they have new hardware in development is a vague reference last week to their ‘next console’.
They certainly haven’t said when it will be announced or when it will be released and have instead insisted there’ll be no new hardware during this financial year – which lasts until the end of March 2024.
The best evidence that the Switch 2 is on the way is that Nintendo’s release schedules are beginning to thin out, once you get into the middle of next year. Although if you go by that logic you’d also expect the PlayStation 6 to be imminent.
The truth is, no one but them has any idea what Nintendo is planning and while a late 2024 launch for the Switch does seem likely it’s definitely not a certainty.
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