New Research Opportunities in the
EARTH SCIENCES
Committee on New Research Opportunities in the Earth Sciences at the National Science Foundation
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-0827414. The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations contained in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor.
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Cover: Gases and ash billowing from Puyehue volcano in southern Chile on June 5, 2011. (Claudio Santana/ AFP/Getty Images)
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
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COMMITTEE ON NEW RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES IN THE
EARTH SCIENCES AT THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
THORNE LAY (Chair), University of California, Santa Cruz
MICHAEL L. BENDER, Princeton University, New Jersey
SUZANNE CARBOTTE, Columbia University, New York
KENNETH A. FARLEY, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
KRISTINE M. LARSON, University of Colorado, Boulder
TIMOTHY LYONS, University of California, Riverside
MICHAEL MANGA, University of California, Berkeley
HO-KWANG (DAVE) MAO, Carnegie Institution of Washington, DC
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
DAVID R. MONTGOMERY, University of Washington, Seattle
PAUL E. OLSEN, Columbia University, New York
PETER L. OLSON, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
PATRICIA L. WIBERG, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
DONGXIAO (DON) ZHANG, University of Southern California, Los Angeles
National Research Council Staff
MARK D. LANGE, Study Director
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
CORALE L. BRIERLEY (Chair), Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Highlands Ranch, Colorado
KEITH C. CLARKE, University of California, Santa Barbara
DAVID J. COWEN, University of South Carolina, Columbia
WILLIAM E. DIETRICH, University of California, Berkeley
ROGER M. DOWNS, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara
WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia
RUSSELL J. HEMLEY, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, DC
MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR., Arizona State University, Tempe
ROBERT B. McMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville
CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (retired), Ocean Park, Washington
HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
JOAQUIN RUIZ, University of Arizona, Tucson
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego
REGINAL SPILLER, Azimuth Investments, LLC
RUSSELL E. STANDS-OVER-BULL, Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Billings, Montana
TERRY C. WALLACE, JR., Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
National Research Council Staff
ANTHONY R. de SOUZA, Director
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Senior Program Officer
DAVID A. FEARY, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Program Officer
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Financial and Administrative Associate
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
CHANDA IJAMES, Senior Program Assistant
Preface
This report summarizes the findings and recommendations of the Committee on New Research Opportunities in the Earth Sciences (NROES). The committee was charged by the National Science Foundation (NSF) with undertaking the following tasks to advise NSF’s Division of Earth Sciences (EAR)1:
• Identify high-priority new and emerging research opportunities in the Earth sciences over the next decade, including surface and deep Earth processes and interdisciplinary research with fields such as ocean and atmospheric sciences, biology, engineering, computer science, and social and behavioral sciences.
• Identify key instrumentation and facilities needed to support these new and emerging research opportunities.
• Describe opportunities for increased cooperation in these new and emerging areas between EAR and other government agency programs, industry, and international programs.
• Suggest new ways that EAR can help train the next generation of Earth scientists, support young investigators, and increase the participation of underrepresented groups in the field.
In keeping with its charge, the committee did not evaluate existing EAR programs or other federal research programs, and budgetary recommendations are not provided. This report focuses on new and emerging research directions that significantly intersect the portfolio of EAR research interests in surface and deep Earth processes. Research directions that are funded primarily by other NSF divisions are not addressed, but several interdisciplinary research opportunities that EAR can position itself to pursue do straddle boundaries with other organizations both within the NSF Directorate for Geosciences (GEO: Division of Ocean Sciences [OCE] and Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences [AGS]) and more broadly across NSF (Office of Polar Programs, Directorate for Biological Sciences, Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences). Interagency coordination with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, and U.S. Geological Survey also is of great importance for pursuing key Earth science research opportunities in the future.
The National Research Council (NRC) has issued several prior reports that have helped shape NSF activities in Earth science research. Prior to 1983, EAR directed all of its funds to individual investigators through core research programs. Pursuing the recommendations of Opportunities for Research in the Geological Sciences2 and Research Briefings,3 EAR created a variety
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1 EAR is part of NSF’s Directorate for Geosciences (GEO), which also comprises the Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (AGS) and Division of Ocean Sciences (OCE). Earth science involves the part of geosciences that addresses Earth’s solid surface, crust, mantle, and core, including interactions between the solid Earth and the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.
2 NRC, 1983, Opportunities for Research in the Geological Sciences, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 95 pp.
3 NRC, 1983, Research Briefings 1983, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 99 pp.
of cross-disciplinary programs, including Instrumentation and Facilities and Continental Dynamics. In 1993 the NRC report Solid-Earth Sciences and Society4 documented progress in Earth science, its technology drivers, the status of its constituent disciplines, a host of significant unsolved problems, and many outstanding research opportunities. It also described the fundamental importance of Earth science in a globalized, high-technology society. In 2001 the influential NRC report Basic Research Opportunities in Earth Science5 (BROES) articulated emerging research frontiers in (1) Critical Zone studies, (2) geobiology, (3) Earth and planetary materials, (4) continental investigations, (5) studies of Earth’s deep interior, and (6) planetary science, all framed in a context of the societal relevance of pursuing basic research in Earth science. NSF and EAR acted on several of the key recommendations in the BROES report, notably reorganizing the divisional structure, investing significant resources in shallow Earth dynamical and hydrological systems, critical zone observatories, and geobiology, and pursuing the EarthScope Major Research Equipment and Facilities Construction initiative. The BROES report extensively documented the value of pursuing basic research in Earth science; the arguments have only strengthened with time as issues of natural resources, natural hazards, geoscience engineering, stewardship of the environment, and terrestrial surveillance for national security have repeatedly been foci of political and societal discussion and action throughout the past decade.
A significant difference between the context of the 2001 BROES report and this 2011 NROES report is the presently improved organizational structure of EAR, with Deep Earth Processes and Surface Earth Processes sections that are now better suited to addressing evolving research opportunities in Earth science. Therefore, the goal of this report is not a major redefining of existing programs to exploit research opportunities. Rather, it builds on existing programs to support geosystem research efforts of particular promise. Another important change of context is the degree to which disciplinary and interdisciplinary science planning efforts have recently been summarized in workshop reports and white papers (see Appendix A) by various EAR research communities. The latter community efforts have been strongly encouraged by EAR program managers and have resulted in an unprecedented number of current, thoughtful, and detailed summaries of scientific opportunities spanning EAR activities, some with moderate levels of prioritization.
Given the breadth of the task assigned to this NROES committee and the huge prior investment in community planning conducted by many groups, the committee did not convene any additional symposia or workshops, preferring to draw largely on the extensive community consensus documents that had been recently produced. Not all research areas, notably geochemistry and structural geology, have prepared disciplinary scientific vision or “Grand Challenge” documents, and particular efforts were made to solicit input from a cross section of researchers in such fields. The committee also requested feedback on the following topics from department heads at universities and colleges, professional societies, and federal agencies with a significant Earth science component:
• the 10-year outlook for the Earth sciences, including linkages with other disciplines;
• the scale of activities suitable for conducting this science, including the roles of individual investigators, major facilities, and “system-level” research; and
• the facilities and infrastructure needed to support these research activities.
Program managers in federal agencies with major Earth science programs—NSF, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of Energy, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration—also provided programmatic information and perspectives on future research directions and agency interactions. The names of survey respondents and other individuals consulted by the committee are listed in Appendix B. Many of the conclusions and recommendations reached by the committee reflect ideas articulated in the thoughtful contributions by numerous members of the geosciences community. Finally, the committee expresses its gratitude to the NRC study director, Mark Lange, for his considerable efforts in bringing the committee together and editing its report and to NRC staff members Jason
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4 NRC, 1993, Solid-Earth Sciences and Society, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 346 pp.
5 NRC, 2001, Basic Research Opportunities in Earth Science, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 168 pp.
Ortego and Courtney Gibbs, who assisted the committee extensively with website development, document tracking and assembly, note taking, and meeting logistics.
Thorne Lay
Chair
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Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Gregory Beroza, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
Thure Cerling, University of Utah, Salt Lake City
Marc Hirschmann, University of Minnesota, Morris
Kip Hodges, Arizona State University, Phoenix
George Hornberger, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee
David Mohrig, University of Texas at Austin
Joan Oltman-Shay, Northwest Research Associates, Redmond, Washington
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse—nor did they see—the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Raymond A. Price, Queen’s University. Appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council.
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Contents
1 EARTH SCIENCES IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Funding Trends in the Earth Sciences
2 NEW RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES IN THE EARTH SCIENCES
Thermo-Chemical Internal Dynamics and Volatile Distribution
Faulting and Deformation Processes
Interactions among Climate, Surface Processes, Tectonics, and Deep Earth Processes
Co-evolution of Life, Environment, and Climate
Coupled Hydrogeomorphic-Ecosystem Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Change
Biogeochemical and Water Cycles in Terrestrial Environments and Impacts of Global Change
Recent Advances in Geochronology
3 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Long-Term Investigator-Driven Science
Thermo-Chemical Internal Dynamics and Volatile Distribution
Faulting and Deformation Processes
Interactions Among Climate, Surface Processes, Tectonics, and Deep Earth Processes
Co-evolution of Life, Environment, and Climate
Coupled Hydrogeomorphic-Ecosystem Response to Natural and Anthropogenic Change
Biogeochemical and Water Cycles in Terrestrial Environments and Impacts of Global Change