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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, the Department of Energy under award number DE-SC0008724; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under award number NNX13A014G; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award number WC133R-11-CQ-0048, TO#4; the National Science Foundation under award number ARC-1243485; and the Smithsonian Institution under award number 12-PO-590-0000254005. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsoring agencies or any of their sub agencies.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-30183-1
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-30183-1
Library of Congress Control Number: 2014944501
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
COMMITTEE ON EMERGING RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN THE ARCTIC
HENRY P. HUNTINGTON (Co-Chair), The Pew Charitable Trusts, Eagle River, Alaska
STEPHANIE PFIRMAN (Co-Chair), Barnard College, Columbia University, New York, New York
CARIN ASHJIAN, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
LAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ, Michigan Technological University, Ann Arbor, Michigan
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
SVEN HAAKANSON, University of Washington, Seattle
ROBERT HAWLEY, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire
TAQULIK HEPA, North Slope Borough, Barrow, Alaska
DAVID HIK, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta
LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks
AMANDA LYNCH, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
A. MICHAEL MACRANDER, Shell Alaska, Anchorage
GIFFORD H. MILLER, University of Colorado Boulder
KATE MORAN, Ocean Networks Canada, Victoria, British Columbia
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON (NAS), The Ohio State University, Columbus
SAMUEL B. MUKASA, University of New Hampshire, Durham
TOM WEINGARTNER, University of Alaska Fairbanks
NRC Staff
MAGGIE WALSER, Co-Study Director
LAUREN EVERETT, Co-Study Director
LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
ELIZABETH FINKELMAN, Senior Program Assistant
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
POLAR RESEARCH BOARD
JAMES C. WHITE (Chair), University of Colorado Boulder
WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder
SRIDHAR ANANDAKRISHNAN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JULIE BRIGHAM-GRETTE, University of Massachusetts Amherst
JOHN CASSANO, University of Colorado Boulder
JENNIFER A. FRANCIS, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey
EILEEN E. HOFMANN, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
ELLEN S. MOSLEY-THOMPSON, The Ohio State University, Columbus
GEORGE B. NEWTON, QinetiQ North America, Marstons Mills, Massachusetts
RAFE POMERANCE, Independent Consultant
CARYN REA, ConocoPhillips, Anchorage, Alaska
GAIUS R. SHAVER, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
KATEY WALTER ANTHONY, University of Alaska Fairbanks
ALLAN T. WEATHERWAX, Siena College, Loudonville, New York
Ex-Officio:
LARRY HINZMAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
TERRY WILSON, Ohio State University, Columbus
DENEB KARENTZ, University of San Francisco, California
NRC Staff
AMANDA STAUDT, Board Director
LAURIE GELLER, Program Director
MAGGIE WALSER, Senior Program Officer
LAUREN EVERETT, Associate Program Officer
LARA HENRY, Christine Mirzayan Fellow
AMANDA PURCELL, Research and Financial Associate
RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator
ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate
SHELLY FREELAND, Senior Program Assistant
Preface
This report comes at a unique time in human history. Never before has an ocean opened up before our eyes, awakening many to the importance and relevance of the far north. Because of the Arctic’s new strategic and economic potential, most of the Arctic countries—the United States, Canada, Norway, Sweden, Denmark/Greenland, Finland, Iceland, and Russia—have produced new or updated national Arctic plans within the past year. These countries include some of the world’s largest and strongest economies. Several of the national plans are oriented toward development and increased empowerment of northern populations, as countries grapple with the prospect of claiming newly accessible mineral and energy resources. Internationally, the opening of the Arctic has raised issues of sovereignty and preparedness and spurred political realignment. Recently, the European Command1 identified the Arctic as a security concern. The non-Arctic countries of China, India, Italy, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea were accepted as observers by the Arctic Council2 in 2013, joining France, Spain, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The United States will assume chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2015.
The Arctic itself is unique. The seasonal shifts from icy white in winter to browns, greens, and blues in summer are more extreme than anywhere else on Earth as the snow melts on land and the sea ice retreats in the ocean. The Arctic Ocean is surrounded by land, with narrow passages allowing interchange between the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans. Its hydrology is subject to more terrestrial influence than is any other ocean’s, and it receives freshwater from some of the largest rivers on Earth, whose watersheds include much of North America and Asia. Some have called it the estuary for the rest of the world ocean. The nearly encircling, shallow continental shelves are dominated by national Exclusive Economic Zones; no other ocean has so much of its area so designated. The United States shares international borders with Russia and Canada in the Arctic.
Northern populations are unique in their relationship with the land, having thrived through some of the largest climate variations on Earth, ranging from the Ice Age, with mile-thick glaciers and frozen lands, to the warming, thawing, greening, glacial retreat, and urbanization of the Anthropocene. Resilient in the face of past changes, they face
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a complex suite of disruptions, dislocations, and opportunities in the years to come as all climate models project continued warming and loss of sea ice, on which many of their traditional practices and food sources depend. The need for actionable Arctic science has never been greater than it is today.
This report synthesizes the scientific community’s input on emerging research topics that concern the Arctic (i.e., those questions that we are only now able to ask or have a realistic prospect for studying). It especially considers topics that have been overlooked or underrepresented in current Arctic research. It also outlines opportunities and challenges in supporting new and existing research pathways and translating that research into practical information that can help guide management and policy decisions in the United States. The report is directed toward the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC),3 which represents 15 federal agencies and organizations with responsibilities in the Arctic. It is designed to address the urgency for understanding the rapidly changing Arctic by connecting the dots among future science opportunities and priorities, infrastructure needs, and collaboration opportunities at local, regional, and international levels.
In preparing this analysis, the committee heard from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder communities, and we thank everyone for their thoughts and perspectives (Appendix B). We also thank the over 300 anonymous participants in our community questionnaire (Appendix C). Special thanks go to Marc Meloche, David Scott, and Sandy Bianchini of the Canadian Polar Commission for hosting our committee meeting in Ottawa. On behalf of the entire study team, we also thank the sponsors who enabled the undertaking of this important analysis. Finally, this report would not have been possible without the dedication and hard work of the National Research Council staff: Lauren Everett and Maggie Walser. We also thank Elizabeth Finkelman, Shelly Freeland, Rita Gaskins, and Rob Greenway for administrative and logistical support.
Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington, Co-Chairs
Committee on Emerging Research Questions in the Arctic
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3 IARPC member agencies/organizations include: the National Science Foundation; the Department of Commerce; the Department of Defense; the Department of State; the Department of Health and Human Services; the Department of Homeland Security; Office of Science and Technology Policy; the Department of Agriculture; the Department of Energy; the Department of the Interior; the Department of Transportation; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; the Environmental Protection Agency; the Smithsonian Institution; and the National Endowment for the Humanities.
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:
WALEED ABDALATI, University of Colorado Boulder
EDDY CARMACK, Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
F. STUART (TERRY) CHAPIN, University of Alaska Fairbanks
BYRON CRUMP, Oregon State University
GAIL FONDAHL, University of Northern British Columbia
DONALD PEROVICH, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Dartmouth College
MARTIN ROBARDS, Wildlife Conservations Society
JULIENNE STROEVE, National Snow and Ice Data Center
ORAN YOUNG, University of California, Santa Barbara
TINGJUN ZHANG, National Snow and Ice Data Center
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by John Walsh, University of Alaska Fairbanks, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. The authoring committee also wishes to thank numerous individuals from a broad spectrum of the scientific and stakeholder communities (Appendix B). Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
Contents
Study Context and Charge to the Committee
Study Approach and Methodology
2 RATIONALE FOR CONTINUED ARCTIC RESEARCH
Will Arctic communities have greater or lesser influence on their futures?
How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation?
What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system?
How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover?
What surprises are hidden within and beneath the ice?
What is being irretrievably lost as the Arctic changes?
What can “break or brake” glaciers and ice sheets?
How unusual is the current Arctic warmth?
What is the role of the Arctic in abrupt change?
What has been the Cenozoic evolution of the Arctic Ocean Basin?
How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes?
How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and subpolar basins?
How will Arctic change affect the long-range transport and persistence of biota?
Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict?
How can we prepare forecasts and scenarios to meet emerging management needs?
Cooperation through Social Media
Sustaining Long-Term Observations
Rationale for Long-Term Observations
Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts
Managing and Sharing Information
Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination
Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing
Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders, and Archives
Maintaining and Building Operational Capacity
Models in Prediction, Projection, and Re-Analyses
Comprehensive Systems and Synthesis Research
Social Sciences and Human Capacity
Stakeholder-Initiated Research
International Funding Cooperation
5 BUILDING KNOWLEDGE AND SOLVING PROBLEMS
B Speaker and Interviewee Acknowledgments