Consensus Study Report
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This activity was supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Breakthrough Energy, Heising-Simons Foundation, Incite Labs, Quadrivium Foundation, and U.S. Energy Foundation, with support from the National Academy of Sciences Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Fund, National Academy of Sciences Arthur L. Day Fund, National Academy of Sciences Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, and the National Academies Mitchell Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-68284-8
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25931.
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COMMITTEE ON ACCELERATING DECARBONIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES: TECHNOLOGY, POLICY, AND SOCIETAL DIMENSIONS
STEPHEN W. PACALA (NAS), Princeton University, Chair
DANIELLE DEANE-RYAN, The New School
ALEXANDRA “SANDY” FAZELI, National Association of State Energy Officials
KELLY SIMS GALLAGHER, Tufts University
JULIA H. HAGGERTY, Montana State University
CHRIS T. HENDRICKSON (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University
ADRIENNE L. HOLLIS,1 National Wildlife Federation
JESSE JENKINS,2 Princeton University
ROXANNE JOHNSON, BlueGreen Alliance
TIMOTHY C. LIEUWEN (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology
VIVIAN E. LOFTNESS, Carnegie Mellon University
CARLOS E. MARTÍN, The Brookings Institution
MICHAEL A. MÉNDEZ, University of California, Irvine
CLARK A. MILLER, Arizona State University
JONATHAN A. PATZ (NAM), University of Wisconsin–Madison
KEITH PAUSTIAN, Colorado State University
WILLIAM “BILLY” PIZER, Resources for the Future
VARUN RAI,3 The University of Texas at Austin
EDWARD “ED” RIGHTOR, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (retired)
PATRICIA “PATY” ROMERO-LANKAO, University of Toronto Scarborough
DEVASHREE SAHA, World Resources Institute
ESTHER S. TAKEUCHI (NAE),4 Stony Brook University
SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group
WILLIAM “REED” WALKER, University of California, Berkeley
NOTE: See Appendix B, Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflicts of Interest.
___________________
1 Resigned from the committee October 2022.
2 Resigned from the committee March 2022.
3 Resigned from the committee April 2022.
4 Resigned from the committee April 2022.
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Director/Scholar, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES), Study Director
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director, BEES
BRENT HEARD, Program Officer, BEES
CATHERINE WISE, Program Officer, BEES
KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer, BEES
REBECCA DEBOER, Research Associate, BEES
KYRA HOWE, Research Assistant, BEES
JASMINE VICTORIA BRYANT, Research Assistant, BEES
KAIA RUSSELL, Program Assistant, BEES
IPPOLYTI DELATOLAS, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow, BEES
RAPHAEL APEANING, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow, BEES
KAVITHA CHINTAM, Christine Mirzayan Science and Technology Policy Fellow, BEES
STEPHEN GODWIN, Scholar, Transportation Research Board
CHANDRA MIDDLETON, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society
HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society
ALEX REICH, Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
ELI NASS, Research Assistant, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
TOM THORNTON, Director, Board on Environmental Change and Society
ELIZABETH FINKLEMAN, Chief of Staff, National Academy of Medicine
DAVID BUTLER, J. Herbert Hollomon Scholar, National Academy of Engineering
JENELL WALSH-THOMAS, Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society
Consultants
JENNIFER R. BRATBURD, University of Wisconsin–Madison
IPPOLYTI DELATOLAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
SUSAN F. TIERNEY, Analysis Group, Chair
VICKY BAILEY, Anderson Stratton Enterprises, LLC
CARLA BAILO, ECOS Consulting
LOUISE BEDSWORTH, University of California, Berkeley
DEEPAKRAJ M. DIVAN (NAE), Georgia Institute of Technology
MARCIUS EXTAVOUR, TIMECO2
T.J. GLAUTHIER, TJG Energy Associates, LLC
PAULA GLOVER, Alliance to Save Energy
NAT GOLDHABER, Claremont Creek Ventures
DENISE GRAY, LG Energy Solution Michigan, Inc.
JENNIFER R. HOLMGREN (NAE), LanzaTech
JOHN KASSAKIAN (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MICHAEL LAMACH, Trane Technologies (retired)
CARLOS MARTÍN, Brookings Institution
JOSÉ SANTIESTEBAN (NAE), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired)
ALEXANDER SLOCUM (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GORDON VAN WELIE (NAE), ISO New England
DAVID G. VICTOR, University of California, San Diego
Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Director and Scholar
ELIZABETH ZEITLER, Associate Director
BRENT HEARD, Program Officer
KASIA KORNECKI, Program Officer
CATHERINE WISE, Program Officer
REBECCA DEBOER, Research Associate
KYRA HOWE, Research Assistant
JASMINE VICTORIA BRYANT, Research Assistant
KAIA RUSSELL, Program Assistant
HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Financial Manager
Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
JOSEPH ALDY, Harvard Kennedy School
DOUGLAS ARENT, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
RICHARD BIRDSEY, Woodwell Climate Research Center
DANA BOURLAND, The JPB Foundation
SANYA CARLEY, Indiana University
MIJIN CHA, University of California, Santa Cruz
JARED L. COHEN (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University
PAMELA EATON, Green West Strategies
THOMAS A. FANNING, Southern Company
HOWARD FRUMKIN (NAM), University of Washington and Trust for Public Land
DOUGLAS HOLLETT, Melroy-Hollett Technology Partners
TARA HUDIBURG, University of Idaho
THERESA KOTANCHEK (NAE), Evolved Analytics, LLC
JOHN LARSEN, Rhodium Group
ROBERT LITTERMAN, Kepos Capital
PAMELA MATSON (NAS), Stanford University
RONI NEFF, Johns Hopkins University
JOSEPH POWELL (NAE), ChemePD, LLC
JOSÉ G. SANTIESTEBAN (NAE), ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired)
EMILY SCHAPIRA, Philadelphia Energy Authority
JOSEPH L. SCHOFER, Northwestern University at Evanston
DREW SHINDELL (NAS), Duke University
CHRISTOPHER TESSUM, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
MICHAEL VANDENBERGH, Vanderbilt University School of Law
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the findings or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by CHERRY MURRAY (NAS/NAE), University of Arizona at Tucson, and DAVID ALLEN (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
Contents
3 Public Health Co-Benefits and Impacts of Decarbonization
4 Workforce Needs, Opportunities, and Support
5 Public Engagement to Build a Strong Social Contract for Deep Decarbonization
6 The Essential Role of Clean Electricity
11 Aligning the Financial Sector and Capital Markets with the Energy Transition
A Committee Member Biographical Information
B Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflicts of Interest
C First Report Policy Recommendations
E Decarbonization Technologies and Related Equity and Justice Concerns
F Equity and Justice Scorecard: Inflation Reduction Act Provisions
G Disadvantaged Community as Defined by Implementers of Justice40 Covered Programs
I Public Engagement Scorecard: Current Federal Policy Portfolio
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Preface
As the Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions issues its second and final report, it is worth reflecting on global events that have transpired since we began work in late 2019. Our first meeting in early March 2020 ended with the doors of the National Academies building on Fifth Street NW in Washington, DC, being shut behind us for a COVID-19 lockdown lasting about 2 years. Before our next in-person meeting, the world had weathered its first global pandemic in over a century. The United States was undergoing a reckoning of racial injustices in the aftermath of George Floyd’s murder, and equity rose as a priority for organizations of all sizes. Russia had invaded Ukraine and demonstrated to everyone the strategic and economic disadvantages associated with a fossil fuel economy. The U.S. Congress had passed the most ambitious set of legislative climate and energy initiatives ever enacted in the United States. These events affected our work in large ways and small, from how we interacted as a committee to the scope and arc of our reports.
While the setting changed for this study, the motivation has not. The adverse impacts of climate change continue to grow, exposing ever-wider swathes of society to its destructive effects. Low, non-emitting, and negative emissions technologies continue to be deployed at ever-increasing scales and ever-lower prices across the globe. Governments, companies, and institutions across the globe and within the United States continue to adopt emissions reduction goals and develop plans to achieve zero net emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, usually by midcentury.
It was within that context that our first report was released in February 2021. That report produced a technical blueprint and policy portfolio for the first 10 years of a just, prosperous, and equitable 30-year transition to net-zero U.S. emissions. The committee fully appreciated that public support for a decades-long transition could be maintained only by fairly distributing benefits and costs. Amid the expanding focus on climate policy that began with the new Biden administration, we briefed our first report widely and now find that many of its recommendations are either enacted or similar to those implemented in recent legislation.
In embarking on the work for our second report, we expanded the committee’s expertise in energy justice, health, workforce, and the role of subnational actors. We also expanded the study to include non-CO2 greenhouse gases, land use, and sectoral analyses. The committee undertook ambitious public information gathering, holding 14 webinars on wide-ranging issues, including leveraging financial systems for decarbonization; soil carbon offsets; government, nonprofit, and philanthropic perspectives on implementing a just and equitable energy transition; manufacturing and industrial decarbonization; public engagement strategies; and research and development priorities for the buildings sector. The committee gathered for its second in-person meeting on July 26, 2022, to hold a workshop: Pathways to an Equitable and Just Transition: Principles, Best Practices, and Inclusive Stakeholder Engagement.
Our meeting in July was especially significant because it was then that the committee concluded that major climate legislation was not forthcoming, and that it was time to move ahead with the knowledge that almost none of the federal actions recommended in the first report would be implemented. Famous last words. Within hours of that decision, it became clear that something historic was afoot in Congress. By the end of the summer, our plate was full with analyses of multiple pieces of federal legislation, executive orders, and regulatory actions aiming to put the country on track for 50 percent emissions reductions by 2030 and net zero by midcentury. This policy environment inspired the report we have today, one that focuses on filling gaps between the current policy portfolio and the goal of a fair, just, and equitable transition to net zero, and about how to overcome barriers to implementing this robust and unprecedented set of policies.
I wish to express my deepest gratitude to the study committee for its patience, perseverance, hard work, and equanimity as we struggled together to communicate across disciplines, to meet difficult deadlines, and to wrestle with a complex and continuously evolving set of policies that will affect everyone. I want to thank the governmental leaders who took bold action to combat a global crisis and especially those inside and outside government who now work every day to implement these actions. We offer our recommendations to these experts with humility, knowing that they have far better understanding of facts on the ground than we do, and that they continually expand and adapt their strategies. I want to thank everyone who provided input to the committee during our public sessions—a list running to hundreds of individuals. And last but by no means least, I wish to express my gratitude to the staff
of the National Academies who devoted significant portions of their lives to this effort, with calm expertise and almost supernatural energy and efficiency. Special thanks to K. John Holmes for his tireless leadership and wisdom. Because of this large cast of participants, the committee has produced what we hope will be a useful and significant report, something that will serve both policy makers and the public as we work together to accelerate decarbonization in the United States.
Stephen W. Pacala, Chair
Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization
in the United States: Technology, Policy, and
Societal Dimensions
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