Proceedings of a Workshop
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This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program of the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27102.
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PLANNING COMMITTEE FOR NAVIGATING THE ENERGY TRANSITION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WORKSHOP
Members
LATONIA VIVERETTE BATISTE, WSP
THOMAS F. DEGNAN, University of Notre Dame (Emeritus)
SARA N. ORTWEIN, XTO Energy, ExxonMobil (Retired)
FRANCIS WIESE, Stantec
Staff
FATU JAMBAWAI, Research Associate, Gulf Offshore Energy Safety Board
AMANDA LIN, Senior Program Assistant, Gulf Data, Analytics, and Impact
JIM PETTIGREW, Director, Gulf Offshore Energy Safety Board
JAMES PRICE, Program Officer, Gulf Offshore Energy Safety Board
JENNIFER SUMMERS, Program Officer, Gulf Offshore Energy Safety Board
MARYANN TERRANA, Administrative Coordinator, Gulf Research Program
Consultants
JAMIE BIGLOW, Center for Naval Analyses
DON BOROUGHS, Center for Naval Analyses
CHARLES CARTIER, Center for Naval Analyses
ZOE DUTTON, Center for Naval Analyses
ERIN MOHRES, Center for Naval Analyses
ANDREW OLSON, Center for Naval Analyses
GINO SAAD, Center for Naval Analyses
JEREMY SEPINSKY, Center for Naval Analyses
CASEY STEADMAN, Center for Naval Analyses
YEE SAN SU, Center for Naval Analyses
SHAUN WILLIAMS, Center for Naval Analyses
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Reviewers
This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by Marilyn Baker, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. She was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.
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Acknowledgments
This proceedings from the workshop Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico reflects the contributions of numerous individuals, most importantly the workshop’s 22 participants. These individuals were generous with their time, experience, insights, and perspectives as they actively engaged in discussions about the future of the energy transition in the Gulf of Mexico. We also wish to extend a sincere thanks to the four members of the planning committee for providing timely feedback on the workshop’s game design and scenarios, especially given the short window of time for workshop planning. On behalf of the planning committee and the Gulf Offshore Energy Safety Board (GOES), we would also like to thank GOES program officer James Price for guiding and overseeing this effort with great poise and tact, as well as his colleagues—program officer Jenn Summers and research associate Fatu Jambawai—for their advice and support throughout the workshop’s development and execution. Additional thanks go to the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) researchers for their expertise in designing the serious game that was central to the workshop. In developing the game’s two future scenarios, CNA researchers were grateful to interview the following experts to supplement their open-source research: Mr. Bryant Black, Mr. David Foster, Mr. Hilton Kelley, Ms. Katie Mehnert, Dr. Kimberly Terrell, and Dr. Scott Tinker. Special thanks go to Mr. Kelley and Dr. Terrell for their willingness to review early portions of the scenarios for tone and content. Finally, thank you to MediaTank for recording gameplay and producing a video that captures the essence of the workshop and the underlying spirit motivating its occurrence to share with a broader audience.
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Preface
An energy transition can mean many different things depending on who is speaking and who is listening, but fundamentally, it involves the transition from one primary energy source to another. Today, with a changing climate putting pressure on communities and ecosystems worldwide, goals for a carbon-neutral economy mean that renewable and low-carbon energy sources are being presented as solutions. While these cleaner energy sources have the potential to reduce risk to the environment and bring energy security closer to a reality, questions remain about the stability of the energy supply chain, the ability to meet energy demand reliably, and the best ways to produce fair and equitable outcomes in an energy transition.
Uncertainty surrounding how the energy transition will unfold also presents an opportunity to provide clarity. As the Gulf Research Program (GRP) at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine enters its second decade, addressing these many questions about the energy transition, specifically across the Gulf of Mexico region, is a principal area of focus. To serve as a catalyst for developing new insights and coordination around the energy transition, the GRP convened a 2-day workshop in Washington, DC, called Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico. Based around two scenarios in the year 2050—one in which a carbon neutral economy is achieved and another in which robust dependence on fossil fuels remains—this serious gaming event stimulated the sharing of ideas, concerns, and cascading impacts from participants across academia, industry, government, and Gulf communities. Moving forward, the ex-
periences shared and connections forged during this event will support the GRP’s broader vision of “a more safe, resilient, and sustainable future for the Gulf and all those who call the region home.”
Jim Pettigrew, Director
Gulf Offshore Energy Safety Board
Contents
Organization of This Proceedings
Expertise Group Impact Selections
Scenario 1: Path to Net Zero (Turn 1: Changes from 2022 to 2035)
Scenario 1: Path to Net Zero (Turn 2: Changes from 2036 to 2050)
Scenario 2: Steadying the Transition (Changes from 2022 to 2050)
Path to Net Zero (2022–2035): Positive Impacts
Path to Net Zero (2022–2035): Negative Impacts
Path to Net Zero (2036–2050): Positive Impacts
Path to Net Zero (2036–2050): Negative Impacts
Steadying the Transition (2022–2050): Positive Impacts
