Chemical Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies in the Era of Great Power Competition (2024)

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Chemical Terrorism Assessment of U.S. Strategies in the Era of Great Power Competition Committee on Assessing and Improving Strategies for Preventing, Countering, and Responding to Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism: Chemical Threats Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Division on Earth and Life Studies Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY—Uncorrected Proofs 

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract No. AWD-001178 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27159 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Chemical Terrorism: Assessment of U.S. Strategies in the Era of Great Power Competition. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27159. 

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COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING AND IMPROVING STRATEGIES FOR PREVENTING, COUNTERING, AND RESPONDING TO WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION TERRORISM: CHEMICAL THREATS TIMOTHY J. SHEPODD (Chair), Sandia National Laboratories (retired) MARGARET E. KOSAL (Vice Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology GARY A. ACKERMAN, University at Albany, State University of New York PHILIPP C. BLEEK, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey GARY S. GROENEWOLD, Idaho National Laboratory (retired) DAVID J. KAUFMAN, Center for Naval Analyses KABRENA E. RODDA, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory NEERA TEWARI-SINGH, Michigan State University GUY VALENTE, County of El Dorado, California (until January 2023) USHA WRIGHT, SHARE Africa Staff LINDA NHON, Study Director ALEX TEMPLE, Program Officer MICAH LOWENTHAL, Director, CISAC HOPE HARE, Administrative Assistant MARIE KIRKEGAARD, Program Officer (until June 2022) MEGAN HARRIES, Program Officer (until August 2022) JESSICA WOLFMAN, Research Associate (until May 2023) Prepublication Copy v 

BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY SCOTT COLLICK (Co-Chair), DuPont de Nemours Chemical and Plastics JENNIFER SINCLAIR CURTIS (Co-Chair), University of California, Davis GERARD BAILLELY, Proctor & Gamble Company RUBEN G CARBONELL, North Carolina State University JOHN FORTNER, Yale University KAREN I. GOLDBERG, University of Pennsylvania JENNIFER M. HEEMSTRA, Emory University JODIE LUTKENHAUS, Texas A&M University SHELLEY D. MINTEER, University of Utah AMY PRIETO, Colorado State University MEGAN L. ROBERTSON, University of Houston SALY ROMERO-TORRES, Thermo Fisher Scientific REBECCA T. RUCK, Merck Research Laboratories ANUP K. SINGH, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories VIJAY SWARUP, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company Staff CHARLES FERGUSON, Senior Board Director LINDA NHON, Program Officer LIANA VACCARI, Program Officer MEGHAN HARRIES, Program Officer (until August 2022) THANH NGUYEN, Financial Business Partner JESSICA WOLFMAN, Research Associate (until May 2023) AYANNA LYNCH, Research Assistant (until June 11, 2023) BRENNA ALBIN, Senior Program Assistant KAYANNA WYMBS, Program Assistant Prepublication Copy vi 

Reviewers Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: SETH CARUS, National Defense University ROBERT CASILLAS, U.S. Army JONATHAN FORMAN, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory APARNA HUZURBAZAR, Los Alamos National Laboratory FRANCES LOCKWOOD, Solar Energy Solutions LLC SCOTT MILLER, Yale University KATHLEEN VOGEL, Arizona State University AUDREY WILLIAMS, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by SUSAN KOCH, Department of State, National Security Council (retired), and MIRIAM E. JOHN (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. Prepublication Copy vii 



Contents SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................. 14 1.1 Statement of Task, 14 1.2 Chemical Environment, 18 1.3 Report Organization, 23 References, 23 2 CHEMICAL THREATS AND U.S. GOVERNMENTAL AND NON-GOVERNMENTAL INSTITUTIONS THAT PLAY A ROLE (THE THREAT AND THE WHO’S WHO) ............. 28 2.1 Complex Chemical Threat Landscape, 28 2.2 Characterization of Broad Chemical Threats, 40 2.3 Delivery Methods of Chemical Agents, 42 2.4 Emerging Chemical Threat Technologies, 43 2.5 Emerging Actors, 47 References, 50 3 EVALUATION OF STRATEGIES ................................................................................................. 54 3.1 Overview of Strategies Assessed, 54 3.2 Methodology of Assessment, 54 References, 56 4 ADEQUACY OF STRATEGIES TO IDENTIFY CHEMICAL THREATS ............................... 58 4.1 Analysis of Strategies To “Identify” WMDT Chemical Threats, 63 4.2 “Identify” Strategy Efficacy, 70 4.3 Implication of the National Strategic Shift from Veo to Great Power Competition (GPC) from the Perspective of “Identify”, 72 4.4 Summary, 73 References, 73 5 ADEQUACY OF STRATEGIES TO PREVENT AND COUNTER CHEMICAL TERRORISM .................................................................................................................................... 76 5.1 Analysis of Strategies To “Prevent or Counter” Chemical Terrorism Threats, 77 5.2 Implication of National Strategic Shift from VEO to GPC from the Perspective of “Prevent/Counter”, 95 5.3 Summary, 95 References, 96 6 ADEQUACY OF STRATEGIES TO RESPOND TO CHEMICAL TERRORISM ................... 99 6.1 Analysis of Strategies for “Responding” To WMDT Chemical Threats, 100 6.2 Summary, 119 References, 119 7 CHEMICAL TERRORISM IN THE ERA OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION: CROSS-CUTTING FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS .......................... 122 7.1 Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Strategy, 125 7.2 Department of Defense Strategy, 127 Prepublication Copy ix 

Contents 7.3 Intelligence Community Strategy, 128 7.4 Chemical Terrorism Risks, 129 7.5 Approaches to Identify, Prevent, Counter, and Respond with Broad Applicability, 130 7.6 Threat-Agnostic Approaches to Medical Countermeasures Against Chemical Threats, 132 7.7 Similarities and Cross-over in Efforts to Counter Threats from Bioterrorism and Chemical Terrorism, 134 7.8 Budget Recommendations, 135 7.9 Summary, 138 References, 139 APPENDIXES A U.S. GOVERNMENT STRATEGIES AND OTHER DOCUMENTS CONSIDERED ........... 141 B ACRONYM LIST ........................................................................................................................... 147 C COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHIES .................................................................................................... 152 D STRATEGY ASSESSMENT RUBRIC......................................................................................... 156 E INTERNATIONAL CASE STUDIES ........................................................................................... 162 F THREATS INTERDICTED CASE STUDIES ............................................................................. 166 G THREATS MANIFESTED CASE STUDIES .............................................................................. 172 Prepublication Copy x 

Preface The strategies of the United States are exceptionally important as they influence policy, budgets, programs, and actions. Counterterrorism strategies against chemical terrorism in the context of this report (many revised and additional), have evolved from the days after 9/11/2001 as both threats and counterterrorism capabilities evolve. Today, the United States has issued strategies that clearly prioritize Great Power Competition (GPC) as the most important threat to world order. Terrorism has not disappeared, but it has been subordinated in prominence in U.S. national strategy. This committee was tasked with evaluating U.S. strategies against chemical terrorism during a time of overt shift in strategy to prioritize GPC over other threats. This change in national strategic priorities will result in new priorities, programs, and risks. How much national attention and resources should be given to chemical terrorism (and terrorism more broadly) as national priorities and as risk acceptance changes is a difficult question to answer. The committee took a high-level approach to this broad topic and included the advantages of various budget functions (see Table S-1). Over the 16-month study period (January 2022–June 2023) our diverse committee met over a dozen times both in person and virtually. Regardless of the backdrop of dynamic national strategic priorities, the committee evaluated many national policy and strategy documents; some of which were issued during the course of this study group (see Appendix Table A1 for a list of documents considered by the committee). The committee also conducted multiple information- gathering sessions both at the National Academies and other agency locations (see Appendix Table A-2 for a list of organizations and individuals interviewed by the committee). The committee created an evaluation rubric used to assess a subset of the National Strategies related to identifying, preventing, countering, and responding to potential chemical terrorism events (see Appendix D). A review of past, including thwarted, chemical terrorism events was conducted and any trends were analyzed. As the vast majority of toxic chemical releases come from accidents and chemical terrorism can result from a myriad of toxic chemicals used every day, the committee considered many factors that might enable or deter terrorism including the motivations of the terrorist. A great asset against chemical terrorism is the strong first responder communities throughout the United States and established policies for escalation of chemical events. In addition to examining strategies and the assets that can support implementation, the committee also identified obstacles to implementing strategies to prevent, counter, and respond to chemical terrorism. In particular, the failure of Congress to reauthorize the Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) program (6 CFR Part 27) legislation in July 2023 was noted by the committee at the time of expiration. CFATS is a coordinated federal program focusing on enhancing security measures at more than 40,000 domestic chemical facilities that help protect them from potential acts of terrorism, including insider threats and cyberattacks. CFATS reauthorization is supported by the chemical industry, the American Chemical Society, and this Committee to ensure that chemical facilities operators are taking steps to reduce and mitigate the potential for terrorist exploitation of this vital critical infrastructure. Prepublication Copy xi 

Preface Finally, we want to give our sincerest thanks to the members of the committee, the many briefers who shared their reality of how strategy played out in their organizations, and the numerous talented professionals at the National Academies, including their IT support staff. Tim Shepodd, Chair Margaret E. Kosal, Vice Chair Committee on Assessing and Improving Strategies for Preventing, Countering, and Responding to Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism: Chemical Threats Prepublication Copy xii