Community-Driven Relocation: Recommendations for the U.S. Gulf Coast Region and Beyond (2024)

8

Receiving and Originating Communities

INTRODUCTION

Community-driven relocation may be ultimately driven by environmental change circumstances, but there are myriad other factors that affect both the decision to relocate and where to move. Given the complex, multidimensional nature of moving to a new community, community-driven relocation requires significant planning on the part of receiving and originating communities, including how to thoughtfully manage the social and financial support needed for resettlers, the physical and social infrastructure needed in receiving communities, and the resulting open space in originating communities. This chapter looks in depth at those two communities and their needs in the face of community-driven relocation, acknowledging that there may be no clear distinction between originating and receiving communities in many cases, especially when relocation takes place within the same city, or when it occurs at the household or neighborhood level.

The first section of this chapter comprises a discussion of receiving communities, an often-neglected aspect of community-driven relocation in its current form. The National Climate Resilience Framework calls explicit attention to the need to support receiving communities in community-driven relocation, “such as by directing funding and capacity for social services or expediting development of additional affordable housing” (White House, 2023, p. 27). These elements are discussed in further detail throughout this chapter and in the recommendations in Chapter 11. This chapter then shifts attention to the originating communities with a discussion that focuses on planning for and managing the land people will move or have moved away from.

Before looking more at these communities below, we offer definitions of five key terms for understanding the process: receiving community, originating community, land-use planning, regional planning, and infrastructure. Receiving community (or destination community) is a broad term used to describe locations where people are resettling away from a hazardous area (Spidalieri & Bennett, 2020a), either moving to a new jurisdiction or moving within the current jurisdiction to a new location. Ideally, receiving communities have a lower climate risk and the necessary physical, economic, institutional, and social infrastructure to accommodate resettlers, although this is not always the case. The term refers to both the jurisdiction to which resettlers move and the social communities into which they integrate.

Originating community—also known as origin or sending community—refers to a location deemed to be unsafe and from which the populations need to leave, either following a disaster or preemptively in the face of either immediate or looming threats in their area. It is the point of departure for individuals or communities who relocate. “Sending community” is a term that has been used for more than 125 years, beginning with

Ravenstein (1889); however, the committee decided to use “originating” to avoid implying that people are being sent away and do not have agency over their decision to relocate or not.

Land-use planning is a process used to manage “a variety of influential human activities by controlling and designing the ways in which humans use land and natural resources” (Ramkumar et al., 2019, p. 6). Land-use planning emphasizes collaborative problem solving, process-based techniques, and spatially oriented processes. Plans include comprehensive land-use plans, economic development plans, hazard mitigation plans, climate change adaptation plans, and capital improvement plans.

“Regional planning may be defined as the integrated management of the economic, social, and physical resources of a spatially bounded area” (Johnson, 2015, p. 141). For example, regional planning may be used to address watershed protection that affects more than one local jurisdiction. In this report, regional planning refers to both intrastate and interstate issues.

Infrastructure includes both physical infrastructure (e.g., utilities, roads, municipal buildings, health clinics) and social infrastructure. The latter involves “the policies, resources, and services that ensure people can participate in productive social and economic activities. This includes social services, public education, and healthcare” (Gould-Werth et al., 2023).

RECEIVING COMMUNITIES

This section characterizes the spectrum of receiving communities, explains the need to identify suitable land for resettlers, and describes both the natural and built infrastructure and social infrastructure and resources needed to accommodate resettlers.

While the topic has been the subject of academic research, little has been done at any government level to specifically assess the capacity of communities to receive resettlers from a community-driven relocation. Regional planning, which might help receiving communities anticipate an influx of resettlers, inherently requires consideration of density, resources, and overall population support; failure to consider these needs when planning relocation can have cultural, educational, financial, and infrastructure effects, particularly in terms of housing shortages (Marandi & Main, 2021). Many communities across the Gulf region already lack affordable housing, and the shortage could be aggravated by resettlers (Butler et al., 2021; Cash et al., 2020; Housing Matters, 2022; Ortiz et al., 2019). Especially during a disaster, receiving communities may rapidly incur increases in the cost of providing municipal services, housing, water, police, utilities, medical services, transportation, education, and related services (Braga & Elliott, 2023).

Characteristics of Receiving Communities

Receiving communities come in many forms. On one end of the spectrum is a “recipient city,” which Marandi and Main (2021, p. 468) define as those “that serve as unsuspecting, unwilling, or unprepared recipients following sudden-onset disasters.” Recipient cities are often close in proximity to originating communities (Eyer et al., 2018), more urban with more job opportunities (Junod et al., 2023), and have already received many resettlers but are often less buffered from climate hazards than “climate destinations’’ (described below) due to their close proximity to the originating community. Some U.S. Gulf Coast examples include Orlando, Florida; St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana; and Houston, Texas. In many cases, counties adjacent to those along the U.S. Gulf Coast have higher rates of poverty than coastal communities, with very little access to discretionary resources (Economic Research Service, 2022). For example, during the committee’s workshop in St. Petersburg, Florida,¹ Joseph Ayala, assistant program manager of the CLEO Institute,² said,

On the other end of the spectrum is what Marandi and Main (2021) call “climate destinations,” or “cities seeking to rebrand their communities as climate havens, ready to welcome climate migrants through equitable planning and preparation.” These cities face less, or more manageable, climate hazards but, unfortunately, tend not to be in close proximity to originating communities on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Examples include Buffalo, New York (City of Buffalo, 2019; Vock, 2021); Cincinnati, Ohio (Swartsell,

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¹ Comments made to the committee on July 12, 2022, during a public information-gathering session in Florida. More information is available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/07-12-2022/managed-retreat-in-the-us-gulf-coast-region-workshop-2

² The CLEO Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization exclusively dedicated to climate crisis education and advocacy. More information about the CLEO Institute is available at https://cleoinstitute.org/

2021); and Duluth, Minnesota (Pierre-Louis, 2019; Rossi, 2019). While review of these types of climate destinations is outside the scope of this study, it remains an important task.

Recent work by the Urban Institute in its Climate Migration and Receiving Community (CMRC) study highlights key considerations for receiving communities using case studies of Houston, Texas; Orange and Osceola Counties, Florida; and Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes, Louisiana (Junod et al., 2023). Based on their research, Junod et al. (2023, pp. v–ix) make the following recommendations to receiving community institutions so that they can better “prepare for, receive, and support climate migrants”: “(a) strengthen coordination across institutions, agencies, and community populations now, (b) understand community population trends and strengthen networks between sending and receiving communities, (c) apply lessons from resilience and sustainability planning, (d) plan for population gains and losses, and (e) develop integrated response plans for both ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ climate migration.”

Identifying Suitable Receiving Areas

One crucial step in ensuring that residents who relocate move to less hazard-prone areas is identifying appropriate and safe relocation sites (or receiving areas). One method of doing so is through land suitability analysis. This includes the identification of land suitable for existing or proposed infrastructure (e.g., water, sewer, roads) and critical public facilities (e.g., police and fire stations, schools), and areas zoned for residential construction (Smith & Nguyen, 2021). Land suitability analysis is often used in land-use plans to help identify environmentally sensitive areas that should be preserved or where development should be restricted. Its use as a tool in comprehensive plans to direct the relocation of at-risk communities to less vulnerable locations (within a jurisdiction’s borders) remains uncommon, although places like Norfolk, Virginia, are employing this tool for that purpose. The city has adopted a Coastal Resilience Overlay Zone, where new development must comply with additional flood resilience standards, as well as an Upland Resilience Overlay, which encourages new, more intensive development in parts of the city facing lower risk of flooding (City of Norfolk, 2023; Smith, Anderson, & Perkes, 2021).

Once suitable, less hazard-prone land is identified, land-use planning and zoning tools can facilitate development in these areas. For example, King County, Washington, uses a Transfer of Development Rights Program to allow developers with rights in originating areas (areas that should not be developed) to transfer rights to receiving areas. In King County the focus

is on land conservation and avoiding urban sprawl,³ but the same type of program could be used to guide development away from hazard-prone areas. This concept could be applied to designate hazard areas as originating areas and safer areas not slated for conservation as receiving areas.

An example of using land suitability analysis to assist with relocation comes from North Carolina following Hurricane Matthew, when the state Division of Emergency Management collaborated with faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and North Carolina State University to assist six hard-hit rural communities (Smith & Nguyen, 2021). Specific projects included undertaking land suitability analysis to identify areas outside of the floodplain but adjacent to supporting infrastructure, including roads, water, sewer, schools, and land zoned as residential; the creation of possible replacement housing prototypes that could be built as replacement housing; and the development of open space management strategies to identify possible uses of the resulting open space after a buyout (Smith & Nguyen, 2023). One of the six communities the team worked with was Princeville, North Carolina,⁴ in which a five-day design workshop was held with town officials and residents; design professionals; and federal, state, and local officials. The workshop goal was to develop preliminary design ideas for the partial relocation of critical facilities, new housing, and supporting infrastructure to a 52-acre site purchased by the state, located outside the floodplain and adjacent to the town’s existing boundaries (Smith & Nguyen, 2021). An important caveat regarding this work is the reality that the team provided direct assistance to the six communities for more than two years and found that this was an insufficient length of time to address several key relocation issues given that the buyouts had not begun during this time (Smith & Nguyen, 2021).

Another example of proactively identifying receiving areas can be found in Hillsborough County, Florida, which adopted a sending and receiving area strategy in its Post-Disaster Redevelopment Plan.⁵ In the plan, waterfront communities and homes severely damaged may consider relocating inland to identified receiving jurisdictions. Although the plan has been adopted by the county government, it has not been “tested” in a post-disaster setting. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether Gulf-front residents would be willing to relocate to more rural inland areas.

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³ More information about King County is available at https://www.georgetownclimate.org/files/MRT/GCC_20_King-3web.pdf

⁴ More information about Princeville, North Carolina, is available at https://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/resources/annexing-and-preparing-higher-ground-receivingareas-in-princeville-north-carolina-through-post-disaster-recovery-processes.html

⁵ More information about the Post-Disaster Redevelopment Plan is available at https://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/en/residents/public-safety/emergency-management/post-disaster-redevelopment-plan

In Louisiana, Haley Blakeman, associate professor of land architecture at Louisiana State University, conducted research funded by the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority to identify communities within Louisiana that could receive households that wish to relocate from the coast (Blakeman et al., 2022).⁶ Blakeman’s research included the following methods to identify potential receiving communities:

• identifying communities in south Louisiana (which have a similar culture to coastal Louisiana communities) with populations of more than 1,000;
• removing from this list communities with high risks of flooding;
• selecting communities that have resources to provide for the current and future well-being of residents, using the Child Opportunity Index (e.g., education, health, environment, social, and economic);⁷ and
• identifying communities with sufficient economic, social, and environmental resources (e.g., proximity to social services, job training, quality affordable housing).

Although Blakeman’s work is ongoing, findings underscore the importance of affording people time to consider when it is right for them to move, and that without proper planning for receiving communities, vulnerabilities may increase for those who relocate (Blakeman, 2023).

Where possible, developing receiving sites in proximity to originating neighborhoods so that residents still have familiar access helps to “reduce relocation stress because social and economic ties help residents re-establish their lives” (Iuchi, 2023, p. 14). In many communities, particularly smaller, more rural jurisdictions, local officials may be concerned with the associated loss of tax base and so prefer the identification of solutions that emphasize the relocation of buyout participants within their jurisdictional boundaries (Smith & Nguyen, 2021).

A less visible, but still important, component of a suitable receiving community, described by workshop participant Dee Knowles, community liaison for the nonprofit micah 6:8 mission, during the committee’s third workshop in Louisiana,⁸ is a welcoming atmosphere:

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⁶ Report to be published in Fall 2023 based on the cited presentation; Blakeman et al. (2022).

⁷ More information about the Child Opportunity Index is available at https://www.diversitydatakids.org/child-opportunity-index

⁸ Comments made to the committee on July 28, 2022, during a public information-gathering session in Louisiana. More information is available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/07-28-2022/managed-retreat-in-the-us-gulf-coast-region-workshop-3-part-2

Sustained Assessment

Climate change will require planners to revise assumptions that inform housing, infrastructure, and service needs tied to relocation. Past decisions linked to the analysis and mapping of natural hazards risk—such as riverine flooding and tropical-storm-induced storm surge—have been connected to modeling assumptions that the history of natural hazards provides an accurate means to assess future hazard risk (stationarity). As discussed in Chapter 9, flood maps from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), for instance, are often outdated, inaccurate, and do not account for future flood risks (Government Accountability Office [GAO], 2021; Kuta, 2022; Lehmann, 2020; Marsooli et al., 2019). In an era of climate change, the concept of stationarity is no longer valid: the 1 percent chance flood event and the intensity of coastal storms are changing, and planners need to adopt strategies to plan for this uncertainty.

The suitability of receiving areas will need to be assessed relative to hazard risks not only today but also well into the future, reducing the likelihood that receiving areas will be located in harm’s way at a later date (Chakraborty et al., 2011; Quay, 2010). Yet this need to plan for uncertainty is exposing the lack of connection between knowledge and action, as well as weak standards for adaptive planning. The result has been consistent failures to fully address climate projections and to monitor or sustain assessment of those projections over time. As part of conducting a land suitability analysis, a future-oriented assessment may be needed to include creating climate projections that account for future hazard risk and to adopt design and land-use standards that account for these changes.

The practical application of sustained assessment applies to conditions in both sending and receiving communities. As part of this process, local governments could remap and rezone areas while adjusting capital expenditures over time to accommodate for more intense rainfall events; differing predictions associated with sea level rise; and more intense, water-laden coastal storms. Furthermore, federal-, state-, and locally funded programs

tied to the purchase of hazard-prone housing could modify eligibility determinants like benefit-cost analysis to account for an evolving understanding of risk and the need to better address equity concerns. Finally, updates could complement standing planning practices, such as 10-year comprehensive plan updates, five-year hazard mitigation plan updates, or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-led climate science updates. Reevaluation would ideally occur following major events and/or when new externalities are introduced.

Relocation Site Planning

Among the complexities of identifying a suitable receiving area, it can be difficult for a relocating community to secure the environmental and historical clearance needed to construct a new site (GAO, 2009; Howe et al., 2021). In 2014, based on the Sandy Recovery Improvement Act of 2013 (42 U.S.C. § 5189g), FEMA, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and nine other agencies signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to create the unified federal review process to expedite and unify the process for completing environmental and historic preservation reviews and reduce duplication of effort for program applicants (GAO, 2022b). But the MOU did not establish a single review process in cases where multiple agencies fund a single project, nor did it supersede existing requirements. Thus, it did little to reduce the time and costs of these reviews (GAO, 2022b). Agencies could adjust their regulations to clarify that the MOU supersedes conflicting resolutions. Examples of such MOUs for infrastructure and utility relocation include the Great Falls, Montana, MOU for the Relocation of Water Main in Clara Park to Make Way for NorthWestern Substation Improvements;⁹ Portland, Oregon’s MOU for the Design and Construction of Relocated SE Water Avenue;¹⁰ and the state of Maine’s MOU for Overhead Utilities/MaineDOT/Associated General Contractors of Maine.¹¹

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⁹ More information about the MOU for the Relocation of Water Main in Clara Park to Make Way for NorthWestern Substation Improvements is available at https://greatfallsmt.net/sites/default/files/fileattachments/city_commission/meeting/packets/94441/ar20160719-20-mou_relocate_water_main_clara_park.pdf

¹⁰ More information about the MOU for the Design and Construction of Relocated SE Water Avenue is available at https://www.portland.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/se-water-avenue-mou-011811-exhibit-a-336066.pdf

¹¹ More information about the MOU for Overhead Utilities/MaineDOT/Associated General Contractors of Maine is available at https://www.maine.gov/mdot/utilities/documents/AerialutilityMOU_02_25_09.pdf

Resource Needs for Receiving Communities

The ability of a receiving community to meet the immediate needs of resettlers (e.g., housing, employment, health care, education, transportation) is a critical component of community-driven relocation (Junod et al., 2023). In addition to conducting a land suitability analysis, receiving communities must also review physical resources and associated carrying capacities, evaluate availability and capacity of social programs, and highlight an overall equitable approach to resource allocation.

Receiving communities are often already growing communities, and, as with any planned growth, the availability of necessary resources is a central criterion for suitability. In reality, many receiving communities do not have sufficient resources and infrastructure to meet the needs of resettlers: even in communities with currently sufficient resources, rapid growth patterns challenge the adequacy of those resources. For example, in DeFuniak Springs, Florida, officials noted sewer and water services that were inadequate to support current and future neighborhoods. As a result, county and city officials worked together to secure the funding for a system update (WMBB, 2021b). In nearby Freeport, they are proactively upgrading their septic and sewer system in anticipation of future growth (WMBB, 2021a). In other cases, dwindling supplies limit future development: due to water shortages, authorities in Phoenix recently issued a moratorium on new housing development until 100-year water resource access could be demonstrated (Flavelle & Healy, 2023). A lack of financial resources can likewise limit infrastructure development. For example, a lack of funding was identified as a barrier to creating an integrated transportation system and developing a “stormwater system with low impact on [the] natural system” in a report about the Mississippi Gulf Coast (Gulf Regional Planning Commission et al., 2013, p. 43). Furthermore, inland communities not far from the coast are generally at a lesser economic advantage than coastal communities that may need to relocate inland (see Uhler [2015] for an example from California and Table 8-1 for poverty rates of U.S. Gulf coastal resettlement destinations).

Moreover, population increases and resulting demand on resources have to be carefully identified and planned for to reduce the inadvertent displacement of current residents while also providing adequate support to resettlers. Community-based organizations and government institutions are often a primary source of support for both current residents and resettlers arriving in receiving communities, but they may have insufficient resources, staff, and knowledge to meet the often extensive and changing needs of those displaced by disaster or other climatic events, as well as understand their cultural preferences, all while continuing to support the needs of current residents.

For these reasons—sustaining growth and preventing displacement of current residents—it is critically important that receiving communities prepare before the need emerges, strengthening collaboration among governmental agencies, community-based support groups, faith-based organizations, first responders, social services, and transport service providers (Junod et al., 2023).

Research from Enterprise Community Partners,¹² a long-time HUD support team, identifies eight practical approaches for governmental preparations for receiving communities (Drew & Temsamani, 2023, pp. 8–15):

1. Encourage and provide resources for potential receiving communities to build capacity in advance of a migration event.
2. Allocate disaster relief to receiving communities when a migration occurs.
3. Set up a centralized system for migrants to access available services and resources.
4. Increase transportation options and availability for migrants.
5. Provide cash assistance directly to migrants.
6. Bolster coordination between key stakeholders.
7. Expand data collection during climate migrations to identify and address both current and future needs for migrants.
8. Plan for a long-term recovery.

Neighborhoods and the Built Environment

Although some communities may be able to scale up their capacity to become receiving communities in some ways, they may lack the existing infrastructure to rapidly absorb additional population. This can result in a resource imbalance. For example, in communities with limited affordable housing, a population increase can increase housing demand, spiking prices and forcing those with less means into poorer-quality housing. These impacts can stretch to nearby jurisdictions. In Miami, for instance, “climate gentrification” is occurring in “Little Haiti,” where waterfront residents are moving inland, resulting in increases in property values and causing some residents to relocate elsewhere (Keenan et al., 2018; Nathan, 2019; see Box 8-1). This can also affect other costs of living, such as property taxes, and can send poorer long-time residents to seek affordable housing that may be in less safe areas than their current homes (Graff Zivin et al., 2023). For low-income communities, the availability of affordable housing severely affects people’s ability to move far from their existing homes in

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¹² More information about Enterprise Community Partners is available at https://www.enterprisecommunity.org/about/where-we-work/gulf-coast

threatened areas (Li & Spidalieri, 2021). Similarly, schools that are at, or near, peak enrollment may lack capacity to support additional students who have relocated or may overburden teachers with large class sizes in efforts to accommodate families. This challenge is both temporary (i.e., workforce demands during recovery periods) and long term (as relocations occur).

To mitigate these challenges, especially in regions grappling with climate gentrification and displacement, Community Land Trusts (CLTs) offer an innovative and equitable solution. CLTs are nonprofit, community-based organizations that hold land in trust for the collective benefit, mainly focusing on providing long-term affordable housing.¹³ CLTs work by owning land and leasing it for residential use, which decouples the value of the land from the cost of the homes situated on it (Grannis, 2021). This unique structure ensures housing remains affordable perpetually, as homes on CLT land are sold at below-market rates and are subject to resale restrictions to maintain affordability for future low- to moderate-income buyers.

This model also offers a powerful countermeasure to the historical injustices of housing discrimination and exclusion, particularly impacting communities of color. By facilitating more stable, affordable housing, CLTs help build resilience against the housing market’s volatility and the pressures of gentrification, which often intensify with climate change impacts (Grannis, 2021). Furthermore, the CLT governance model involves residents and local stakeholders directly, embedding democratic decision making and community engagement at its core. In this model, the board typically comprises CLT residents, community members, and public interest representatives, ensuring decisions about land use, housing, and community resources reflect the needs and aspirations of the community (Grannis, 2021).

Carrying Capacity

An important concept in state, regional, and local planning is carrying capacity: the ability of a community to accommodate its populations, whether current residents or resettlers (Junod et al., 2023). The term needs to be used with caution, as it can easily be a way to shut out resettlers from communities that could, with some assistance, meet their needs. Thus, authorities may need to consider the carrying capacities of existing infrastructures and determine how to assist receiving communities in providing adequate infrastructure and services while minimizing environmental damage (Vock, 2021). For example, in this vein, the Gulf Regional Planning Commission’s Metropolitan Planning Organization considers the adequacy of transportation infrastructure and could consider how relocation will

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¹³ More information about CLTs is available at https://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/toolkits/equitable-adaptation-toolkit/introduction.html

shift transportation infrastructure demand and capacity.¹⁴ Similarly, ongoing efforts in the Gulf region to establish energy transition plans offer ways to improve energy security and reduce transition risks (Beckfield et al., 2022), while studies of regional water security identify blue water (e.g., surface water) scarcity as a growing challenge (Veettil & Mishra, 2020). These assessments acknowledge the need for ongoing evaluation of carrying capacities beyond the needs for resettlement, and perhaps, depending on

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¹⁴ More information about the Gulf Regional Planning Commission’s Metropolitan Planning Organization is available at https://grpc.com/mpo-plans

the findings, a complementary driver for suitability assessments of possible resettlement areas.

Often, analysis of carrying capacity focuses on physical aspects of a community, such as housing, schools, and utilities (e.g., Keenan’s [2019] analysis of Duluth as a receiving community), rather than available services and societal connections—even though the latter are essential (House, 2021). Research by Junod et al. (2023, pp. v–vi) on the institutional capacity of receiving communities (Orange and Osceola Counties region near Orlando, Florida; Houston, Texas; and inland Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes in Louisiana) offers this key finding: “Institutional sectors with strong, existing connections across government, private sector, and civil society groups and organizations that also exhibited relevant cultural competencies and expertise were most successful in addressing the needs of climate migrant populations.” Drew and Temsamani (2023) suggest that one approach to encouraging this type of preparation is for federal and state agencies to provide funding and technical assistance to potential receiving communities. This would enable communities to evaluate their capacity and “develop off-the-shelf strategies that can be quickly activated” (Drew & Temsamani, 2023, p. 8).

Housing

The availability of short-term and long-term housing at an affordable price is often among the biggest challenges in the relocation process. Suitable replacement housing needs to be identified or built in receiving communities, emphasizing characteristics that meet the needs of resettlers, such as cost, square footage, number of bedrooms, and culturally appropriate layouts or location. Authorities currently working on affordable housing issues need to plan for a future increase in demand in receiving areas, which will not only limit the inventory of housing stock but also cause an increase in real estate prices, as described above. To keep resettlers within the same tax area, jurisdictions may develop new housing in undeveloped, safer areas or annex nearby unincorporated land. Resettlers may also move into existing communities in a different jurisdiction, as renters or through the purchase of homes that are for sale or via the construction of infill¹⁵ housing in less vulnerable locations than their current homes. Houston’s proposed Buy In/Buy Out Program would be such an example.¹⁶

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¹⁵ “Infill development refers to the construction of buildings or other facilities on previously unused or underutilized land located within an existing urban—or otherwise developed—area.” More information is available at https://www.planetizen.com/definition/infill-development

¹⁶ More information about the Buy In/Buy Out Program is available at https://houstontx.gov/housing/hap.html

In response to such challenges, Houston has taken proactive measures through the formation of the Houston Community Land Trust (HCLT) in 2018.¹⁷ The HCLT exemplifies an innovative approach to preserving and expanding affordable housing options. The HCLT’s New Home Development Program aids residents in purchasing newly constructed homes on land owned by the Houston Land Bank, thereby ensuring a supply of affordable new homes (Kidd & Tilchin, n.d.). Complementing this, the Homebuyers Choice Program offers significant city-funded subsidies to assist residents in purchasing market-rate homes, addressing the rising home values throughout the city (Kidd & Tilchin, n.d.). In both programs, the HCLT retains land ownership, thus ensuring long-term affordability even when these homes are resold. This model not only mitigates the immediate issue of housing stock availability but also addresses the systemic challenge of escalating real estate prices, especially for low-income buyers.

In collaboration with the city of Houston and the Houston Land Bank, the HCLT highlights the potential of land trusts in managing and subsidizing the development of affordable homes. While land banks, like the Houston Land Bank, focus on acquiring and repurposing vacant properties, CLTs emphasize long-term housing affordability (City of Houston, 2016). The HCLT’s efforts, in conjunction with the Houston Land Bank¹⁸ and the city’s Housing and Community Development Department,¹⁹ have been pivotal in ensuring affordable housing options while navigating challenges like ensuring construction quality and timely completion by developers.

The long-term need for affordable housing is particularly challenging, and often the housing prices in the receiving community are costlier or experience a spike due to increasing demand and so may not be affordable to resettlers. This occurred in Baton Rouge following Hurricane Katrina (Bullard & Wright, 2009; Johnson, 2005). When newcomers are looking more for temporary housing (e.g., renting), it will first affect housing prices in those neighborhoods that traditionally serve the rental market, with impacts on the homeownership market felt later and less acutely (Drew & Jakabovics, 2023). Although the Urban Institute’s CMRC study (see above) did not find “substantial changes” in the housing market due to climate migration, it did show “noticeable impact on specific neighborhoods or ZIP codes, particularly in areas with demographic and economic characteristics

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¹⁷ More information about the HCLT is available at https://www.houstonclt.org/

¹⁸ More information about the Houston Land Bank is available at https://houstonlandbank.org/

¹⁹ More information about the city of Houston’s Housing and Community Development Department is available at https://houstontx.gov/housing/

similar to those of the migrant population” (Drew & Jakabovics, 2023, pp. 9–10).

Housing counseling is an important social service for newcomers described in the disaster recovery literature (Smith, 2014). Counseling services may include, but are not limited to, assessing an individual’s financial situation (to include one’s savings and value of the home to be sold), identifying a suitable replacement home (with similar square footage, number of bedrooms, etc.) or providing rental assistance, and identifying community services available (schools, churches, parks) in a receiving locale. Additional services may include providing psychological support services for family members who are relocating (including adults and children) and for current residents in a receiving community (to include garnering their input in the design of receiving areas).

Many programs and researchers tend to focus on homeownership and public housing; thus, there is a limitation in understanding issues that commonly affect renters, such as availability, flood risk disclosure, and affordability. This is significant as many flood-prone areas include a disproportionate number of rental units, including those defined as affordable housing (Lee & Van Zandt, 2019). The failure to rebuild damaged affordable housing in Galveston following Hurricane Ike (Walters, 2018) and in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina are two instances on the U.S. Gulf Coast where this issue has arisen (University of North Carolina Center for Community Capital, 2018). During the committee’s acquisitions webinar,²⁰ Courtney Wald-Wittkopp, Blue Acres program manager, discussed how the issue of affordable housing intersects with flood risk:

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²⁰ Comments made to the committee on December 13, 2022, during a public virtual information-gathering session. More information is available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/12-13-2022/managed-retreat-in-the-us-gulf-coast-region-perspectives-and-approaches-to-property-acquisitions-challenges-and-lessons-learned

Transportation

In the CMRC study, transportation was identified as playing a key role in determining whether and how resettlers are able to access economic opportunities and community resources (e.g., health care, education), as well as where they were able to live (Junod et al., 2023). In this study, many newcomers were without a vehicle due to a disaster and therefore had to rely on public transportation (Junod et al., 2023). The provision of transportation, particularly public transportation, is critical, and the lack of adequate mobility and travel options, which may already be inadequate for existing populations, can have significant effects on community-driven relocation for both originating and receiving communities (Clark-Ginsberg et al., 2023; Junod et al., 2023). Furthermore, state transportation ratings for Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana are D+, C–, and D+, respectively, so existing transportation infrastructure is currently deemed seriously inadequate and in need of investment.²¹ Recent funds made available through the Promoting Resilient Operations for Transformative, Efficient, and Cost-Saving Transportation (PROTECT) Formula Program to help increase the resilience of surface transportation offer ways to address the deficiencies in transportation systems.²²

Educational Access and Quality

For schools in receiving communities, educational access and quality may be affected by an influx of new students, for both newcomers and those already enrolled. Moreover, better educational access may be a factor in attracting resettlers.

Buffalo, New York, provides an interesting example response, in this case to the influx of families from Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria in 2017 (Vock, 2021). While the city did not have a specific strategic plan for “receiving,” local community-based organizations established relief efforts immediately following the disaster (due to many families connected between New York and Puerto Rico) and subsequently created local partnerships to enable immigrating families to more easily resettle in the Buffalo community (City of Buffalo, 2018). This example of societal connection and the responsiveness to resettling families drew from existing relationships between the Hispanic Heritage Council of Western New York, Inc. and other

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²¹ More information about infrastructure report cards is available at https://infrastructurereportcard.org/

²² The PROTECT Formula Program provides 7.3 billion dollars from the infrastructure law to help communities build resilient infrastructure. More information is available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/bipartisan-infrastructure-law/protect_fact_sheet.cfm

local organizations who worked at the speed of trust²³ to initially provide disaster response and help to resettle families, including helping them find apartments, pay rent, and provide them with essential materials for new homes (Pope, 2023).

As part of any community-driven relocation strategy, planning authorities are in a position to connect school curricula between originating communities and receiving communities to foster relationships ahead of arrival. Examples from science, technology, engineering, and mathematics learning ecosystems in cross-country studies, as well as localized multi-school studies, provide demonstrable outcomes (Traphagen & Traill, 2014; Wang, Charoenmuang et al., 2020).

Employment

Job opportunities are another factor that needs to be considered in resettlement plans. In Buffalo, creating employment for displaced teachers while simultaneously helping resettle Puerto Rican families required recognizing and actively addressing job and social needs of families traumatized by loss related to Hurricane Maria. For receiving communities, where increases in populations may strain local job markets, purposeful interventions to improve job prospects and provide job opportunities are part of social infrastructure development. Skill transfers from originating communities offer opportunities to broaden job offerings; however, without purposeful planning, livelihoods may be interrupted by population gains whether via a shortage of opportunity or a misalignment in skills and need. Municipalities alongside institutional and nonprofit partners could create job training and workforce opportunities in the development of denser neighborhoods, improving job prospects for existing and new residents.

In Texas, the Walker Montgomery Community Development Corporation is an example in the U.S. Gulf Coast that focuses on trade school development training for disadvantaged youth.²⁴ Such a program could help with rapid job attainment and with efforts to prepare the community for population increases simultaneously.²⁵

Research shows that poverty rates in evacuation and resettlement destinations within 75–100 miles of the U.S. Gulf Coast are higher than the national average: see Table 8-1. These near-coast receiving communities, which often suffer from disinvestment (in their education, affordable housing,

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²³ This phrase refers to the need to build and sustain trusting collaborative relationships in order to proceed in any endeavor.

²⁴ More information on the Walker Montgomery Community Development Corporation is available at https://www.wmcdc.net/

²⁵ More information is available at https://gctc.us/WMCDC-CHDO/

TABLE 8-1 Poverty Rates of Coastal Resettlement Destinations within 75–100 Miles from the Coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, by County, 2020 National and State

^a Lacombe is a census-designated place rather than a parish.

SOURCE: Adapted from Butler-Ulloa, D. M. (2022). Climate displacement, migration and relocation in the United States: Resistance, restoration and resilience in the Coastal South (Publication No. 29323594). [Doctoral dissertation, University of Massachusetts Boston]. ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global. https://www.proquest.com/dissertations-theses/climate-displacement-migration-relocation-united/docview/2710980853/se-2?accountid=152665; using U.S. Census Bureau S1701 Poverty Status in the Last 12 Months, 2021 ACS 5-Year Estimates Subject Tables.

jobs, health care, child care, retail centers, etc.), will likely need long-term, sustained multifaceted investments to create social, economic, educational, and employment pathways for both current and future residents.

Ecological Services and Environmental Amenities

Environmental considerations, including habitat preservation and ecological services, are valuable planning considerations if large numbers of people move to places that have not previously been residential areas, such as open space and farmland. This type of resettlement is resource intensive and less environmentally sustainable than relocation to an already-developed area, but it is one possible outcome of relocation from coastal areas. For example, the relocation of Isle de Jean Charles (IDJC) residents to a new development in The New Isle, Louisiana, would be considered a greenfield resettlement. In contrast, strong planning, guided by sustainable development principles, could encourage urban densification, more walkable communities, and greater preservation of environmental resources. Central to sustainable development is ensuring that “ecological services” are still available, including the water filtration and stormwater capture services that are provided by wetlands as well as the environmental amenities that people desire in a community.²⁶ Such amenities may include not only parks, open spaces, and undeveloped land but also opportunities to carry out one’s traditional culture. For example, coastal Louisiana residents who participated in the workshops for this study spoke of the importance of being able to step outside their front door and fish for their evening meal.²⁷ Such an amenity may not be available in a more urban setting, which can affect residents’ sense of place (see Chapter 6). Windell Curole, general manager, South Lafourche Levee District, spoke on this topic at this study’s third workshop in Thibodaux, Louisiana:²⁸

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²⁶ More information on Sustainable Development Goals 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and 15 (Life on Land) is available at https://sdgs.un.org/goals

²⁷ See footnote 8.

²⁸ Comments made to the committee on July 26, 2022, during a public information-gathering session in Louisiana. More information is available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/07-26-2022/managed-retreat-in-the-us-gulf-coast-region-workshop-3-part-1

Social and Community Context

Understandably, receiving communities are not always welcoming to an influx of new residents. In any location, poorer, ethnically distinct resettlers may face resistance from the receiving community. For example, during the resettlement of Pecan Acres, residents from the lower-income, predominantly Black neighborhood north of New Roads, Louisiana, faced opposition from residents near proposed sites throughout the site selection process (Jones, 2018). Many relocating residents felt this opposition was driven by racial bias (Spidalieri & Bennett, 2020b). (See Box 8-2 for comments from workshop participants about community acceptance.) This has also been seen for refugees from other countries (Coenders et al., 2017), and for U.S. residents unhoused and displaced by disasters (Hamilton, 2010; Masquelier, 2006). Aranda and Rivera (2016) describe Puerto Rican migrants facing this type of discrimination in Orlando, Florida, which in turn may blunt their “economic progress and socioeconomic integration” (p. 57). They note that “the erosion of feelings of belonging due to discrimination may, in turn, affect future settlement decisions” (Aranda & Rivera, 2016, p. 57).

It is important that receiving communities do not feel overwhelmed or overburdened by resettlers, and learning from the experience of other receiving communities is a critical step. The Urban Institute detailed how Orlando responded when more than 56,000 Puerto Ricans arrived in Florida following Hurricane Maria, serving “as a crash course in emergency coordination and collaboration” (Housing Matters, 2022). They noted the need to densify with accessory dwelling units where possible, to plan for significant growth as a receiving community, and to establish regional collaboratives to manage influx and to coordinate services. Chris Castro, former director of sustainability and resilience at the city of Orlando, Florida, and now chief of staff for Office of State and Community Energy Programs at the U.S. Department of Energy, advises that cities build capacity and governance structures that can support resilience to climate migration in advance of newcomers arriving, so that when they do, the city already has an entity in place to respond. “Orlando, for instance, helped establish the East Central Florida Regional Resilience Collaborative to coordinate climate mitigation and adaptation efforts with other cities” (Housing Matters, 2022).

One approach to easing the social and cultural transition of resettlers into receiving communities identified by Drew and Temsamani (2023) is to utilize the suggested funding and technical assistance (described in the

“Carrying Capacity” section) to prepare for the specific needs of resettlers, “such as cultivating cultural competency to bridge gaps in traditions and language barriers, collaborating with community partners, and developing relationships with likely origin communities to facilitate information and record sharing” (p. 8). Another method suggested by Drew and Temsamani (2023) for readying the social and community context of receiving communities is to identify partners who could bridge cultural and language differences between the receiving community and new residents (p. 13) and set up a one-stop shop for new residents to “learn about and access critical services” to address their needs (p. 10). Regulatory enforcement could help to address entrenched NIMBYism (“not in my backyard”) through up-zoning initiatives like providing density bonuses and requiring inclusionary zoning to encourage higher density development in areas with lower flood

risk and to ensure these developments are affordable for people with low to moderate incomes (see City of Norfolk, 2023).

Another possible approach is to develop communication campaigns that promote resettlers as assets, highlighting cultural diversity and celebrating differences. This approach is one way to socialize the idea (share it with others early in planning to receive feedback) of receiving resettlers with members of the receiving community. Municipal authorities can also support stronger “development practices that minimize some effects of newcomers on local housing, community composition, and other civic resources and assets (e.g., displacement and gentrification)” (Martín & Williams, 2021, p. 17). Another method that may help preserve community ties is employed by Harris County’s Voluntary Buyout Program, which offers a $19,875 incentive payment to homeowners who relocate to an area outside the 100-year floodplain but within Harris County. This incentive serves to preserve the county’s tax base while also potentially enabling homeowners to find housing near friends, family, and/or members of their origin community (Lessans, 2022).

Similarly, community-based organizations, like those in Buffalo, New York, are often trusted advisors whose consistent support carries tremendous significance in low-resourced communities. For example, Catholic Charities was instrumental in the resettlement of Vietnamese immigrants in New Orleans post-Vietnam War (Bragg, 2000), and today Boat People SOS, a community-based organization, works closely with the Vietnamese community.²⁹ Engaging community-based organizations in the socialization of resettlers and providing support to those organizations for such work offers an important complement to municipal initiatives. Enterprise Community Partners, advice to communities includes recommendations to self-assess housing and systems capacities, leverage existing community ties, and work with current residents to set expectations and make sure that the receiving community is also prepared for climate change (Drew & Temsamani, 2023).

Health Access and Quality

An important aspect of infrastructure evaluation is the assessment of local health systems’ readiness to support a larger population within its catchment area. As discussed in Chapter 6, the well-being of both the relocating community and the receiving community is critical to a successful community-driven relocation. Maintaining it requires consideration of a receiving community’s capacity to offer access to health care for mental and physical needs. Broadly defined, this includes a range of child and family services necessary to support trauma-induced transitions, such as

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²⁹ More information about Boat People SOS is available at https://www.bpsos.org/about

from Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Katrina (Hamilton et al., 2009). In Houston, this required deployment of the regional disaster plan, which led “to the activation of the Regional Hospital Preparedness Council’s Catastrophic Medical Operations Center, and the rapid construction of a 65-examination-room medical facility within the Reliant Center” (Hamilton et al., 2009, p. 515). Such response differs from the type of health care planning needed to address planned growth, which is more common to traditional planning efforts. For resettlement, especially following a disaster, institutions will need to prepare for counseling for the behavioral health and grief associated with the planned relocations from one’s home (Shultz et al., 2019).

Common within health care institutions is the assessment of preparedness and response (Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, 2016). Health system facilities also need to evaluate their own readiness for disasters and the implications of potential relocation from disaster-prone areas. This is pertinent not only to receiving communities: a recent World Bank study noted that health systems must prepare for climate changes, recognizing the importance of regional and system-level responses and the ties to national emergency management coordination, including the system’s own infrastructure demands (Rentschler et al., 2021).

Equity

The history of the Gulf region is marked by pervasive and systemic inequities and a history of forced migration, as described in Chapter 4. This history affects the planning preparations that communities will undertake. It is important to recognize past inequities and the time required to engender trust and to develop diverse networks capable of addressing resettlement in a sensitive and culturally competent manner.

Hauer’s model illustrating climate-induced migration suggests that migrations from the U.S. Gulf Coast will increase even as housing affordability and job security decrease in receiving communities (Hauer, 2017). Furthermore, from 2000 to 2017, the U.S. Gulf Coast saw more population growth than all other U.S. coastlines, with Harris County, Texas, receiving the largest gain of all U.S. counties (U.S. Census Bureau, 2019). Hauer also identified the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land metro area as receiving the fourth highest net migration in 2100 under a no adaptation scenario, following Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford in second (Hauer, 2017, Supplementary Table 1). These areas each have their own challenges with sea level rise, flood risk, and affordable housing. The compounding challenges of existing inequities and supply-demand management with the volume of

expected migrations underscore the importance of preparatory planning for receiving communities.

ORIGINATING COMMUNITIES

Thresholds

As people leave high-risk areas to resettle elsewhere, there is a need to attend as well to what remains of the originating community. In some cases, this means consolidating or reducing municipal services and even decommissioning infrastructure. There may be a need to set thresholds at which investment in those areas is reduced, and relocation, consolidation, decommissioning, and ecological and cultural restoration begins. Such thresholds acknowledge two important realities: that at some point in time continuing services in certain areas may no longer be possible, and that there are limits to adaptive capacities—that is, that environmental changes are so transformational that area habitation is no longer possible. Thresholds are typically identified within broader “adaptation pathways” that “map out a sequence of adaptation strategies in response to rising seas” (Collini et al., 2022, p. 29). For example, Alaskan government agencies proposed four indicators to trigger the transition from protection in place to community relocation: (1) “life/safety risk during storm/flood events,” (2) “loss of critical infrastructure,” (3) “public health threats,” and (4) “loss of 10% or more of residential dwellings” (Immediate Action Workgroup, 2009, p. 84). Extreme weather events that cause mass displacement are not an appropriate indicator; rather, appropriate factors include erosion rates, sea level rise, and loss of drinking water (Bronen, 2014).

In regions such as the Gulf and southeast states, the challenges of rising sea levels and increased coastal flooding have prompted a reevaluation of how to manage and maintain road infrastructures. The term “abandonment” is frequently used in these areas to describe the official process of governments deserting roads, driven not only by the immediate damages but also by the economic burdens of repeated maintenance in the face of these environmental threats (Jones et al., 2019). Legal frameworks in these states emphasize that roads are held in public trust, implying that decisions around their maintenance or abandonment must prioritize the collective welfare over individual property interests. The choice to abandon is not made lightly but is based on a range of considerations including the cost implications, the degree to which the public relies on the road, and any demonstrable decrease in its usage. Such decisions reflect a broader adaptation strategy, wherein the principle of public welfare serves as a guiding force, ensuring that community resilience and safety are at the forefront.

Part of such threshold setting includes decisions about how or whether to maintain basic health and safety services in the originating areas. For example, with the IDJC relocation, it is not clear who will provide basic services such as garbage collection for those who have opted to stay behind; at the same time, it is unreasonable to expect that governments can continue to service areas that are repeatedly flooded. Logan et al. (2023) also characterize the challenge of communities becoming isolated well before chronic inundation occurs.

However, disinvestment in public infrastructure, such as roads to homes, without buy-in from residents could lead to a “takings” claim against the government for limiting access to private property. Monroe County, Florida, faces such a challenge. Monroe County studied the cost to elevate roads to serve 30 households. With a price of over 75 million dollars to elevate for anticipated 2025 sea level rise and king tides, the city initially sought to abandon those roads (Harris, 2019), but the city is now studying the design solutions that could allow residents to stay in place a bit longer.³⁰ Examples like this one make it more obvious why coordinated planning at the federal, state, and regional levels is needed to characterize risks in a consistent manner and to develop processes to support decision making and ensure effective use of limited government funding. Establishing adaptation pathways well in advance of decision making allows time for the co-development of solutions by community residents, planners, and policy makers that are based on science and local desires and knowledge (Collini et al., 2022).

Without specified thresholds that trigger disinvestment, small communities like the one in Monroe County will continue to try to remain even as climate science reinforces how unsustainable staying will become (Foote, 2022). Thus, it is important to have a systematic approach to address thresholds. A recent study by Hermans et al. (2023) provides a sample framework connecting sea level rise, flooding, and the predictability of the service life of flood protection investments. Combined, Logan et al. (2023) and Hermans et al. (2023) suggest that thresholds are far from definitive, but progressive, and that community-driven discussions about risk tolerance need to be central to planning for disinvestment.

Establishing thresholds is a highly sensitive topic, particularly if it appears that outside entities are determining that a particular community is no longer worth supporting. For example, after Hurricane Katrina, officials considered turning New Orleans’ flood-prone, historically marginalized Ninth Ward and other neighborhoods into parkland, stamping them with green dots on a planning map of the city (Johannessen & Goldweit-Denton, 2020). The community uproar was so great that the “Green Dot Plan” is

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³⁰ More information is available at https://www.hdrinc.com/portfolio/monroe-county-roadway-vulnerability-study

now a case in point of how not to proceed with resilience planning (Hennick, 2014; Warburg & Metcalf, 2015). Such plans can be perceived as gentrification at the cost of current residents, or even seen as a form of ethnic cleansing. Davis (2014, p. xiii) wrote, “In a nutshell, the Urban Land Institute’s recommendations [regarding the Great Footprint Debate] reframed the historical elite desire to shrink New Orleans’s socioeconomic footprint of Black poverty (and Black political power) as a crusade to reduce the city’s physical footprint to contours commensurate with flood safety and a fiscally viable urban infrastructure.” Davis (2021) further connects the regional history of racism to the post-Hurricane Katrina effects. This example also highlights how the best time for discussions of planned community relocation is not immediately following the traumatic effects of a disaster. During the post-disaster aftermath, most people just want to return to normal, so pre-disaster planning is essential to effectively engage a community in the planning process (FEMA, 2017).

Residents can be suspicious of relocation efforts, including planned buyout programs (such as those described in Chapters 3 and 9), when they see development and industrialization continuing around them. For example, residents of IDJC had heard rumors of the parish halting maintenance on the Island Road—the only route to the island. As work progressed on The New Isle community, the state invested in recreational fishing turnouts on the Island Road, which caused residents to feel that they had been misled about continued maintenance of that road (Jessee, 2021). Similar sentiments were expressed at the committee’s workshops (see Box 8-3).

Thus, it is essential that neighborhoods and households not only are involved in deciding at what point they would want to relocate but also have a say in setting the threshold at which disinvestment begins (Bronen, 2021) and in deciding what happens to the land left behind (discussed in the below sections). It is important that these thresholds are set with an understanding of the fiscal constraints of continuous recovery on individuals and municipalities. This community involvement could be done in connection with regional planning entities who can provide the support needed to ensure that those in originating areas will have a place in receiving areas. Shi et al. (2023) explore Florida’s St. Petersburg region in this way.³¹ Planning out where those disinvestments may occur over time and where residents might relocate to is essential to giving communities the time, space, and resources to adjust. Haasnoot et al. (2019) offer coastal typological examples of such adaptation planning while Stege (2017) refers to habitability thresholds. It is also essential that this type of planning is accompanied by policies that protect and reflect resident decisions about

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³¹ More information about Shi et al. (2023) is available at https://cugis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=754b615fa5db4bbea0ed393a2c730163

disinvestment. In other words, if a community decides to relocate away from an environmentally hazardous location, it is important for policies to be in place that appropriately limit the type of development that may occur in that area in the future.

In setting thresholds and making adaptation decisions, it is also important for planners, community members, and other decision makers to be mindful of maladaptation, which Schipper (2020, p. 409) notes is when planning efforts “create[e] conditions that actually worsen the situation.” Maladaptation is defined by the IPCC (2022, p. 2915) as “actions that

may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including via increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence.” More broadly, maladaptation impacts human capacities and may well inadvertently increase vulnerability or exposure to environmental conditions.

Reckien et al. (2023) recognize that maladaptation appears to be on the increase. Similarly, the IPCC Climate Change 2022 report notes “increased evidence of maladaptation across many sectors and regions” (Lee et al., 2023, p. 27). Most concerning is the outsize impact of maladaptation on vulnerable populations, in turn “reinforcing and entrenching existing inequities” (Lee et al., 2023, p. 27). Maladaptation sometimes takes the form of signaling safety in communities where risks continue to escalate. Such signals could include building back in increasingly flood-prone areas or encouraging development in places certain to experience chronic inundation, which conveys a message of “safe to return” while also locking in investments (Lee et al., 2023; Schipper, 2020). Juhola and Käyhkö (2023) recognize the importance of systematically examining maladaptation as part of any national adaptation policy and focus particularly on deeper understandings of distributive and restorative justice, encouraging more diverse methods, more stakeholder engagement, and more procedural justice efforts to reduce negative outcomes.

Consolidation and Regionalization

Transportation investments, affordable housing, and acquisitions are costs that typically require significant financial investments by receiving communities. However, it is also important to consider the financing needs of those communities that are losing residents and may face a loss of the supporting tax base for economic development and places of well-being for residents that remain and others who may choose to move there (Siders, 2019). Local development paradigms rely on growth in property value and developed land to finance municipal budgets. Coastal governments are also often small and have little to no land that is not in a flood zone (Deyle et al., 2008). Not only will this potential loss of tax base come from outmigration, but a recent study on the impacts of climate change on the U.S. housing market found that properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by 121–237 billion dollars, and, as a result, those homeowners and municipalities are at risk of losing equity and property tax revenue as these prices deflate (Gourevitch et al., 2023). A study examining the impacts of sea level rise on municipal revenues in Florida, for example, found that with 6.6 feet of sea level rise, the average municipality would see almost a third of their total municipal revenues affected (Shi et al., 2023). Historically, major

urban centers have created metropolitan area taxing bodies to support services such as sewerage, garbage, and library services that cross jurisdictional lines. And in the southern United States, several cities and counties/parishes have merged governments, including Columbus, Georgia; Athens, Georgia; and Lafayette, Louisiana (Leland & Thurmaier, 2005). Such actions reflect attempts to create greater economies of scale for municipal utilities as their tax bases shift from the city center to the suburbs. Consolidation and regionalization of resources and planning are also identified by Shi et al. (2023) as ways to ease people’s transition away from the coast while sharing benefits that come from investments in areas of higher elevation. This model allows for more cooperation, fiscal resilience, and adaptability (Shi et al., 2023). It also creates more opportunity for planning between receiving and originating communities that fall within a common jurisdiction.

The shifting of services from city to county/parish responsibility has also occurred following population and subsequent tax revenue losses after hurricanes (Flavelle & Belleme, 2021). This has also occurred with city-county/parish mergers (e.g., Baton Rouge³²), but inter-county mergers could be more politically challenging (Citizens Research Council of Michigan, 2020). Rural counties without cities, such as Cameron Parish, Louisiana,³³ will face challenges maintaining infrastructure as an already small population declines (Shi & Varuzzo, 2020). Inter-county authorities have been created for coastal education, restoration, and protection efforts, suggesting that similar efforts could be applied to relocation planning. For example, Louisiana created the Chenier Plain Coastal Restoration and Protection Authority to coordinate coastal restoration and protection efforts across Cameron, Calcasieu, and Vermillion Parishes, although to date it has largely focused on habitat restoration and structural protection projects.³⁴ Planning could consider whether and when to “regionalize” or merge government and utility services (where publicly held) in an originating area with those in a receiving area, such as with water services (Riggs, 2020), and incorporate these plans into adaptation pathways where possible.³⁵

Decommissioning and Restoration

Just as it is important to avoid abandoned, unremediated oil and gas wells in relocation (Ristroph & Robards, 2019), it is important to avoid

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³² More information about the city of Baton Rouge and parish of East Baton Rouge is available at https://www.brla.gov/1062/Our-Government

³³ More information about Cameron Parish is available at https://www.louisiana.gov/local-louisiana/cameron-parish

³⁴ More information is available at http://www.cpcrpa.org/

³⁵ More information on “Utility Strengthening through Consolidation: A Briefing Paper” for an example is available at https://www.uswateralliance.org/initiatives/utility-consolidation

leaving abandoned infrastructure in originating neighborhoods and communities. When homes and infrastructure are slated for buyouts through FEMA grants, the original site must be maintained as open space in perpetuity (42 U.S.C. § 5170c(b); 44 C.F.R. § 80.19). This may include the conversion of the land to its former undeveloped state, to parks and greenways, to water retention areas, to ballfields, to commemorative sites, or other specified uses (Smith et al., 2023). Not only do these conversions provide ecological and community benefit, but they can also help to restore faith in government and generate support for future mitigation projects, unlike when buyout land is left as a vacant unattended lot (Zavar, 2022). The thoughtful reprogramming of buyout lands to include ecosystem restoration can also provide substantial economic value through improved ecosystem services, including maintaining important habitats for fish and wildlife species, improving water quality, and reducing fire and flood risk (Thomas et al., 2016).

As with oil and gas infrastructure, decommissioning needs to be planned in advance to avoid a situation in which a community with a dwindling tax base cannot afford the costs (Flavelle & Belleme, 2021). Funding for demolition and restoration is included in some, but not all, grant budgets. For instance, FEMA-funded buyouts do not include the resources (including financial and technical support) suitable for the development of thoughtful design-based open space management options, and as a result, the land often becomes a financial burden rather than an asset, particularly in underresourced communities (Ben Dor et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2023; Zavar & Hagelman, 2016). Moreover, the acquisition of properties in piecemeal approaches makes subsequent restoration efforts ever more problematic. Kathy Hopkins of the Texas Water Development Board commented at the committee’s acquisitions webinar³⁶ that setting priority areas is key to avoiding checkerboarding buyout patterns, which end up giving buyouts a “bad taste” among residents. Acquiring contiguous properties near vacant open spaces and identifying areas that need to be conserved before the acquisition is even necessary is a more proactive approach that offers better long-term outcomes (Atoba, 2022). Harris County Flood Control District (which includes Houston, Texas) sets these priority areas so that when the county obtains funding, they know what areas to look at for continuous acquisitions.³⁷ Houston Wilderness, a Houston-based nonprofit organization, also works to maximize the public benefit of buyout land (see Chapter 9).

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³⁶ See footnote 20.

³⁷ Presentation by Kathy Hopkins, made to the committee on December 13, 2022, during the information-gathering session. More information is available at https://www.nationalacademies.org/event/12-13-2022/managed-retreat-in-the-us-gulf-coast-region-perspectives-and-approaches-to-property-acquisitions-challenges-and-lessons-learned

In an emerging trend, grants from FEMA’s Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program are being used in a small number of communities to improve planning for the resulting open space (Smith et al., 2023). In addition, more and more states and local governments are creating their own buyout programs, and the funds are being used in part to address current federal eligibility shortfalls, thereby better addressing local needs and conditions, to include the resources needed for restorative activities. Funding is also available from the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation’s National Coastal Resilience Fund.³⁸ For example, outside the Gulf region, the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium received one of these grants for restoration of parts of Newtok as that community relocated (GAO, 2022a; National Fish and Wildife Foundation, 2018; see Chapter 3 for a discussion of Newtok’s relocation process). Like many villages in Alaska powered by diesel, Newtok has a “bulk fuel tank farm” and prior to relocation, the tanks were in bad shape.³⁹ The tanks and other equipment needed to be removed to avoid risk of contamination to the Ninglick River, an important food source. Nonprofit organizations, including Anthropocene Alliance and Buy-In Community Planning, are now working to get similar funding for communities so buyout sites can be restored and provide ecological services (e.g., water retention) for the remaining neighborhoods in the areas (Festing, 2023).⁴⁰

Continuing Access

Preserving the original site of a community and all of its physical aspects may not be possible in the face of climate change. Currently, previous owners of properties that have been acquired have no rights to return to the site where their homes once stood (see 42 U.S.C. § 5170c(b)(2)(B); 44 C.F.R. § 80.19), which is a deal-breaker for some (e.g., residents of IDJC). To preserve the culture and identity that are intertwined with community knowledge or sites that are culturally significant, it is important to have some way to allow residents to return to the original site, to include the purposeful creation of commemorative sites (Smith et al., 2023; Zavar, 2019). Community involvement in these decisions and those around the repurposing of land can also help to build trust in the relocation process, which is demonstrably lacking in many U.S. Gulf Coast communities (see Box 8-3). Nelson et al. (2022, p. 94), in a study including interviews with residents

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³⁸ More information about the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation’s National Coastal Resilience Fund is available at https://www.nfwf.org/programs/national-coastal-resilience-fund

³⁹ More information about decommissioning the infrastructure is available at https://www.commerce.alaska.gov/web/Portals/4/pub/Newtok_Mertarvik_Relocation_Energy_Plan.pdf

⁴⁰ More information about Buy-In Community Planning is available at https://buy-in.org/our-vision-for-a-better-buyout-1

from and professionals working in Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana, similarly found that residents suspected ulterior motives behind resident relocation, such as acquiring mineral rights, and that this “mistrust was grounded in past oil and gas industry land deals and the dispossession of Native lands.”

The National Park Service has a program that could serve as a model for acquisitions for neighborhoods where the older generations may be very attached to the land or have limited mobility, but younger generations are ready to leave. When the National Park Service acquires land for parks, it allows residents to have life estates, giving them a right to the property for up to 25 years, at which time full ownership goes to the National Park Service.⁴¹ This program has already been imitated in Louisiana. For the IDJC relocation after Hurricane Ida, where residents’ attachment to their traditional land and homes was a barrier to moving, Louisiana negotiated with HUD to allow residents to keep their old homes at the original site as long as they wanted (Louisiana Office of Community Development, 2021). Although IDJC residents secured the right to return to their homes, effectively using them as fishing camps, they are not permitted to make substantial repairs or improvements. Outside the Gulf region, Charlotte-Mecklenburg, North Carolina, and Austin, Texas, have used “leasebacks” to allow residents to continue leasing homes subject to a buyback, giving the residents more time to move (Shi et al., 2022).

Where maintaining property rights is not feasible, there could be some sort of memorial to acknowledge the former residents and why they left. This acknowledges the attachment to place (see Chapter 6) and provides a historical marker for future generations to understand why the land remains open.⁴²

There may also need to be discussion regarding how to handle cemeteries and sacred sites. For example, the relocation process of Vunidogoloa, Fiji, recognized the villagers’ cultural, emotional, and spiritual ties to their traditional territory and the burial place of their ancestors: ancestor remains were exhumed, and the local church provided for the transfer of the burial site (Borsa, 2020). The old village site was left in place so villagers could continue to visit it (Tronquet, 2015). In Christchurch, New Zealand, buyout participants are allowed to go back to their former property to collectively harvest fruit trees that were left standing, as well as maintain roses and other plantings as part of a larger regeneration plan that focuses on the management of the resulting open space (Smith et al., 2023). And (as discussed in Chapter 3) in Newtok, Alaska, former owners can go on their bought-out land if they want to; it is owned by their tribe, though it

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⁴¹ More information about the National Park Service acquisitions is available at https://www.nps.gov/policy/DOrders/DOrder25.htm

⁴² See footnote 20.

is projected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to be under water by the end of this decade (Ristroph, 2021).

ORIGINATING AND RECEIVING PARTNERSHIPS

Jurisdictions in the United States have yet to develop partnerships between originating and receiving communities. In contrast, when residents from the Carteret Islands (in Papua New Guinea) were preparing to relocate to a larger island with higher ground (Bougainville), the nonprofit group Tulele Peisa brought chiefs and elders from the receiving area to visit the Carteret Islands (Boege & Rakova, 2019). The extended visit enabled Bougainville leaders to see the difficulties faced by Carteret Islanders and enabled the leaders to be more welcoming (Rakova, 2022). In addition, Tulele Peisa arranged for a group of youth from both the Carteret Islands and Bougainville to conduct outreach in the receiving area by going from household to household and spending time with families (Rakova, 2022). Also included in Tulele Peisa’s work was a program to teach agricultural techniques (Boege & Rakova, 2019; Edwards, 2013; Rakova, 2022). Together, the originating and receiving communities have taken part in a number of customary practices that helped build their relationship (Rakova, 2022).

There are partnerships in the United States that could be expanded to address community-driven relocation. City-to-city networks, such as Strong Cities Network,⁴³ C40,⁴⁴ and Peace in Our Cities,⁴⁵ could be invested in and capitalized on to contribute to regional planning between cities (Blaine et al., 2022). Some networks, such as C40, already provide guidance on relocation (referred to as managed retreat on their website). C40 notes,

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⁴³ More information about the Strong Cities Network is available at https://strongcitiesnetwork.org/

⁴⁴ More information about C40 is available at https://www.c40.org/

⁴⁵ More information about Peace in Our Cities is available at https://www.sdg16.plus/peaceinourcities

⁴⁶ More information is available at https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/article/How-to-adapt-your-city-to-sea-level-rise-and-coastal-flooding?language=en_US

Specific activities in the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact include the creation of a regional climate change adaptation plan; the development of agreed upon policy statements and advocacy positions; a repository of the best available, locally relevant scientific information on the physical indicators of climate change; and a set of resources that communities may draw from to implement local actions spelled out in the regional plan.⁴⁷ Support for the idea of city-to-city partnerships also came up at the committee’s Louisiana workshop, where one participant suggested the idea of creating “cousin cities” in closer proximity to one another that could mutually assist each other in times of need (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2023a, p. 54). Another participant mentioned that something similar happened after Hurricane Laura in New Orleans, where thousands of people from the Lake Charles area were able to stay in downtown hotels (National Academies, 2023a).

Partnership organizations that are oriented toward community-driven relocation, like the ones described above, could help to match nearby communities and facilitate dialogues between them, putting this idea of “cousin cities” into practice. While it may not be possible to specifically match communities, a network could be established to connect communities who have undertaken the relocation process with those considering this complex venture. This program could include pairing communities with similar characteristics (e.g., size, rural or urban, geography, governmental capacity). Additional actions undertaken as part of this program could include the identification of communities that plan to undertake managed retreat and communities that may seek to accept those scheduled for relocation. This proposed approach may foster greater policy learning (or the sharing of policy problems with others to produce more effective policy), a recognized shortfall in the current approach taken to acquire hazard-prone housing (Greer & Binder, 2017).

SUMMARY

This chapter identified the relationship between receiving and originating communities and the importance of early and ongoing action to coordinate community-driven relocation and related community development initiatives. Given the relatively minimal work to date to acknowledge, much less address, this relationship between receiving and originating communities, the chapter first defines these key terms as well as others, including regional planning, land-use planning, and infrastructure—the latter capturing social as well as physical components. These definitions and discussions

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⁴⁷ More information about the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact is available at https://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/

offer important nuance as the work on relocation tends to focus on leaving, and less attention is therefore paid toward the preparations needed for communities to receive arriving households or industries, including physical and social infrastructure. In these communities, the socialization of risks, the shared decision making regarding when to leave, and the possibility of continued access to former homesites share equal importance to planning for the physical environment.

The chapter also highlights the importance of sustained assessment, or monitoring over time, which acknowledges that current climate challenges will continue to evolve, and likely escalate, in terms of sea level rise, temperatures, and precipitation intensities. Such sustained assessment of risk enables communities to adjust planning should risks escalate more rapidly, or differently, than initially considered. Referred to as non-stationarity, this warrants a whole-of-government approach wherein changes in originating communities amplify the need for planning in receiving communities and the need to monitor receiving communities’ carrying capacities, housing affordability, transportation availability, educational access and quality, employment opportunities, as well as ecological and environmental amenities. Social and community context, health care access and quality, and equity considerations are paramount. Moreover, as originating communities reduce populations and remove assets from risky areas, municipal governments’ declining tax bases may require consolidation and/or regionalization. Within these communities, remaining open spaces need decommissioning and ecological restoration; this is true particularly in areas where permanent inundation may otherwise introduce toxins to newly aquatic environments. Determining how to care for these ecological landscapes while simultaneously reducing the tax base deserves specific planning.

Inherent in this type of coordinated planning is the need to engage, or establish, regional planning entities alongside state and municipal governments. Creating relationships between cities and sustaining them over time requires additional attention in the early stages of community-driven relocation and requires partnership building among regional collaborators. Given the work already needed in the U.S. Gulf Coast, moving quickly toward a type of interstate regional planning collaborative is an important near-term step. Within such a collaborative, receiving and originating communities could have helpful dialogues and, through networks of such dyads, grow capacities far more quickly while making progress toward the types of relocation that the U.S. Gulf Coast will inevitably see. In the next chapter, the committee will lay out the framework of funding, policies, and planning under which relocation currently happens in the United States.

CONCLUSIONS

Conclusion 8-1: Receiving communities need to have the infrastructure and institutional capacity to provide essential services such as housing, water treatment and water supply, power and fuel distribution, broadband, education, health services, employment, and transportation for expected population increases. Currently, there is little planning or funding specifically for population relocation.

Conclusion 8-2: Land suitability analysis is a useful tool to help communities identify less hazard-prone areas for potential relocation sites. Although its use in directing relocating communities is so far uncommon, when incorporated into broader city planning efforts it has the potential to help direct people who are relocating to safer nearby areas that are also acceptable to them and that preserve a jurisdiction’s tax base.

Conclusion 8-3: Community relocations and individual buyouts can be slowed down by long environmental review processes, particularly when multiple agency approvals are involved and agencies are reluctant to take the lead, given the expense, time, and potential for litigation.

Conclusion 8-4: Becoming a receiving community can have numerous implications, including on housing costs and education systems. Thus, ensuring communities understand and prepare for those implications ahead of time can lead to smoother outcomes for both current and new residents. Preparing receiving communities might include “socializing the idea” with current residents, identifying suitable land, building or identifying affordable housing options, and identifying livelihood pathways for new residents.

Conclusion 8-5: A history of pervasive and systemic inequity and forced migration affects the planning preparations required for community-driven relocation. Thus, communities need to recognize past inequities and invest the time required to engender trust and to develop diverse networks for planning community-driven relocation in a sensitive and culturally competent manner.

Conclusion 8-6: As a result of resettlements, coastal cities may experience a decline in tax revenue as some properties become vacant or real estate values fall among at-risk properties that remain in use. To avoid losing real estate tax bases, county-level governments or private entities

providing services, such as electricity or wastewater, can consolidate their governments or identify suitable areas for resettlement in their existing jurisdiction.

Conclusion 8-7: Authorities need to provide for systematic decommissioning of facilities on acquired sites and restoration of these areas, not only to avoid contamination and hazards to wildlife but also to protect neighboring communities from future flood events and provide appropriate ecosystem, recreational, and educational services.

Conclusion 8-8: The opportunity for people who have relocated to visit their original sites and the creation of commemorative sites that are culturally significant would help preserve the culture and identity that are intertwined with community knowledge.

Conclusion 8-9: Partnerships between originating and receiving communities can facilitate the collaborative development of policies and plans needed to address the complexities and long timeframes associated with community-driven relocation.