Endnotes

1. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Framing Transportation Research for the Nation’s Future. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2013. https://doi.org/10.17226/18611.

2. In addition to references included in the text, see compilations of existing reports on climate change, electric vehicles, safety, public health, equity, funding and finance, public transportation, and non-motorized modes of transportation at https://www.trb.org/InformationServices/Snap.aspx.

3. For Figure 2, motorcycles are included with light-duty vehicles, and occupants in medium- and heavy-duty trucks are excluded under the assumption that these are mostly commercial drivers.

4. National Association of City Transportation Officials. Half a Billion Trips on Shared Mobility Since 2010: Shared Mobility in the U.S 2020–2021, 2022. https://nacto.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/2020-2021_shared_micro_snapshot_Dec7_2022.pdf.

5. Statistics in this paragraph are calculated from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. U.S. Passenger-Miles. https://www.bts.gov/content/us-passenger-miles.

6. Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled [M12MTVUSM227NFWA], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2023. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA. Note that whereas annual per capita VMT was about 10,000 miles in both 2010 and 2019 (before the decline in travel during the COVID-19 pandemic), the trend had declined to about 9,400 miles in 2014 and has since been increasing.

7. Erhardt, G., et al. Why Has Public Transit Ridership Declined in the United States? Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 161, Pages 68–87, 2022. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856422000945?via%3Dihub.

8. McGuckin, N., and A. Fucci. Summary of Travel Trends: 2017 National Household Travel Survey. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Washington, DC, 2017. https://nhts.ornl.gov/assets/2017_nhts_summary_travel_trends.pdf.

9. Kastle Systems. Getting America Back to Work. https://www.kastle.com/safety-wellness/getting-america-back-to-work.

10. Bloom, N. The Future of Work from Home: Executive Briefing, Slide 8, 2023. https://www.dropbox.com/s/ynjzxh86b8gppr5/Exec_Briefing_March2023%20-%20Copy.pptx?dl=0.

11. Bloom, N. The Future of Work from Home: Executive Briefing, Slide 31, 2023. https://www.dropbox.com/s/ynjzxh86b8gppr5/Exec_Briefing_March2023%20-%20Copy.pptx?dl=0.

12. Frey, W.H. New Census Data Shows a Huge Spike in Movement Out of Big Metro Areas During the Pandemic. Brookings Institution, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-census-data-shows-a-huge-spike-in-movement-out-of-big-metro-areas-during-the-pandemic.

13. Speroni, S., and B.D. Taylor. The Future of Working Away from Work and Daily Travel: A Research Synthesis. UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies, Los Angeles, CA, 2023. https://www.its.ucla.edu/publication/the-future-of-working-away-from-work-and-daily-travel-a-research-synthesis.

14. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Contribution of Transportation to the Economy: Use of Transportation by Industry or Sector, 2022. https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/dk5i-ipsm.

15. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Transportation Productivity: Total Factor Productivity. https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/k65c-hne3#multifactor-productivity-1.

16. Gordon, R.J. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2016.

17. Sprague, S. The U.S. Productivity Slowdown: An Economy-Wide and Industry-Level Analysis. Monthly Labor Review, 2021. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2021/article/the-us-productivity-slowdown-the-economy-wide-and-industry-level-analysis.htm.

18. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Transportation Productivity: Labor Productivity. https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/cksf-e5wx.

19. Hulten, C.R. Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography. In C.R. Hulten, E.R. Dean, and M.J. Harper (eds.), New Developments in Productivity Analysis. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 2001.

20. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Transportation Productivity: Total Factor Productivity. https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/k65c-hne3#multifactor-productivity-1.

21. We are indebted to an anonymous reviewer for these suggestions.

22. Hampshire, R.C., P. Hu, and R. Schmitt. Pocket Guide to Transportation 2023. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Washington, DC, 2023. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/64803.

23. Viscelli, S. Introduction. In The Big Rig: Trucking and the Decline of the American Dream, University of California Press, 2016.

24. Winston, C., and Q. Karpilow. Autonomous Vehicles: The Road to Economic Growth? Brookings Institution, 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/books/autonomous-vehicles.

25. U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Transportation Productivity: Total Factor Productivity. https://data.bts.gov/stories/s/k65c-hne3#multifactor-productivity-1.

26. United Nations. The Paris Agreement. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement.

27. Ibid.

28. This publication uses 2019 data because the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in sharp declines in travel in 2020 that have subsequently mostly rebounded. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Fast Facts: U.S. Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990–2019. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1013NR3.pdf.

29. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Fast Facts: U.S. Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990–2019. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1013NR3.pdf.

30. Lee, D.S., et al. The Contribution of Global Aviation to Anthropogenic Climate Forcing for 2000 to 2018. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 244, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834.

31. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2022, H.R. 3684, also referred to as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL).

32. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, H.R. 5376.

33. Bistline, J., et al. Emissions and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act. Science, Vol. 380, No. 6652, 2023. https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adg3781.

34. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Fast Facts: U.S. Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990–2019. https://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi?Dockey=P1013NR3.pdf.

35. U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization: A Joint Strategy to Transform Transportation. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/the-us-national-blueprint-for-transportation-decarbonization.pdf.

36. Davenport, C., L. Friedman, and B. Plumer. California to Ban the Sale of New Gasoline Cars. The New York Times, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/24/climate/california-gas-cars-emissions.html.

37. California Air Resources Board. States That Have Adopted California’s Vehicle Standards Under Section 177 of the Federal Clean Air Act. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/states-have-adopted-californias-vehicle-standards-under-section-177-federal.

38. California Air Resources Board, California Approves Groundbreaking Regulation That Accelerates the Deployment of Heavy-Duty ZEVs to Protect Public Health. News Release, April 28, 2023. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-approves-groundbreaking-regulation-accelerates-deployment-heavy-duty-zevs-protect.

39. Slowik, P., et al. Analyzing the Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on Electric Vehicle Uptake in the United States. Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC and The International Council on Clean Transportation, Washington, DC, 2023. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ira-impact-evs-us-jan23.pdf.

40. Larson, E., et al. Net Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts. Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 2021. https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report.

41. Slowik, P., et al. Analyzing the Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act on Electric Vehicle Uptake in the United States. Energy Innovation Policy & Technology LLC and The International Council on Clean Transportation, Washington, DC, 2023. https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ira-impact-evs-us-jan23.pdf.

42. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions, Chapter 8. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2023. https://doi.org/10.17226/25931.

43. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2021. https://doi.org/10.17226/26092.

44. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Current Methods for Life-Cycle Analyses of Low-Carbon Transportation Fuels in the United States. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2022. https://doi.org/10.17226/26402.

45. Manville, M., et al. Vehicle Access and Falling Transit Ridership: Evidence from Southern California. Transportation, Vol. 50, Pages 303–329, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10245-w.

46. Transportation Research Board and National Research Council. Driving and the Built Environment: The Effects of Compact Development on Motorized Travel, Energy Use, and CO₂ Emissions—Special Report 298. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2009. https://doi.org/10.17226/12747.

47. Cervero, R. Coping with Complexity in America’s Urban Transport Sector. University of California, Berkeley, Institute of Urban and Regional Development, Berkeley, CA, 2003. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4wf4n16r.

48. Polzin, S., and T. Choi. COVID-19’s Effects on the Future of Transportation. U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC, 2021. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/54292.

49. Hughes, G., P. Chinowsky, and K. Strzepek. The Costs of Adapting to Climate Change for Infrastructure. The World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/327581468314998260/the-costs-of-adapting-to-climate-change-for-infrastructure.

50. Larson, E., et al. Net Zero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure, and Impacts. Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 2021. https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report.

51. The risks of crash involvement and injury, however, are substantially higher than for fatal crashes. The injury rate per 100 million VMT in 2020 was almost 60 times higher than the fatality rate. See U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Traffic Safety Facts Annual Report 2020, Table 2. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813375.

52. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The Economic and Societal Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2019. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813403.

53. Ibid. Note that this discussion relies on deaths rather than injuries because of a lack of long-term trend data on injuries across modes.

54. Kahane, C.J. Lives Saved by Vehicle Safety Technologies and Associated Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards, 1960 to 2012—Passenger Cars and LTVs. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, DC, 2015. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812069.

55. Flannigan, C., and A. Leslie. Crash Avoidance Technology Evaluation Using Real-World Crash Data. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, DC, 2020. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/44159/dot_44159_DS1.pdf.

56. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and Highway Loss Data Institute. Real-World Benefits of Crash Avoidance Technologies, 2023. https://www.iihs.org/media/290e24fd-a8ab-4f07-9d92-737b909a4b5e/oOlxAw/Topics/ADVANCED%20DRIVER%20ASSISTANCE/IIHS-HLDI-CA-benefits.pdf.

57. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities and Fatality Rate by Sub-Categories in 2021. Washington, DC, 2022. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813298.

58. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2022. Washington, DC, 2023. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813428.

59. Glassbrenner, D., et al. Evaluating Disparities in Traffic Fatalities by Race, Ethnicity, and Income. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, DC, 2022. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813188.

60. Governors Highway Safety Association. An Analysis of Traffic Fatalities by Race and Ethnicity, 2021. https://www.ghsa.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/An%20Analysis%20of%20Traffic%20Fatalities%20by%20Race%20and%20Ethnicity.pdf.

61. U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Continuation of Research on Traffic Safety During the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency: January to June 2021. Washington, DC, 2021. https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2021-10/Traffic-Safety-During-COVID-19_Jan-June2021-102621-v3-tag.pdf.

62. National Association of City Transportation Officials. Designing for Small Things with Wheels: Urban Bikeway Design Guide Working Paper, 2023. https://nacto.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/WP_designing_for_small_things_with_wheels_FINAL_March1-2023.pdf.

63. International Transport Forum. Road Safety Annual Report 2020. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/irtad-road-safety-annual-report-2020_0.pdf.

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65. Farmer, C.M. The Effects of Higher Speed Limits in the United States, 1993–2017. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, 2019. https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/bibliography/2188.

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68. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and Highway Loss Data Institute. Pedestrians and Bicyclists, 2023. https://www.iihs.org/topics/pedestrians-and-bicyclists.

69. Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and Highway Loss Data Institute. New Study Suggests Today’s SUVs Are More Lethal to Pedestrians Than Cars. News Release, June 16, 2020. https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/new-study-suggests-todays-suvs-are-more-lethal-to-pedestrians-than-cars.

70. Queensland Government. Australasian New Car Assessment Program, 2022. https://www.tmr.qld.gov.au/safety/vehicle-standards-and-safety/vehicle-safety/australasian-new-car-assessment-program.

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97. Karner, A., et al. Transportation and Environmental Justice: History and Emerging Practice. In R. Holifield, J. Chakraborty, and G. Walker (eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Environmental Justice. Routledge, London, UK, 2017. See also Lane, H., et al. Historical Redlining Is Associated with Present-Day Air Pollution Disparities in U.S. Cities. Environmental Science and Technology Letters, Vol. 9, Pages 345–350, 2022. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.estlett.1c01012.

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99. Ibid.

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106. Tessum, C.W., et al. PM_2.5 Polluters Disproportionately and Systemically Affect People of Color in the United States. Science Advances, Vol. 7, No. 18, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf4491.

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