Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Midterm Assessment of Progress Toward Implementation of the Decadal Survey (2024)

Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

Thriving on Our Changing Planet A Midterm Assessment of Progress Toward Implementation of the Decadal Survey Commitee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space Space Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY—Subject to Further Editorial Correction 

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract 80HQTR22DA001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27743 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Midterm Assessment of Progress Toward Implementation of the Decadal Survey. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27743. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

COMMITTEE ON THE REVIEW OF PROGRESS TOWARD IMPLEMENTING THE DECADAL SURVEYTHRIVING ON OUR CHANGING PLANET: A DECADAL STRATEGY FOR EARTH OBSERVATION FROM SPACE CHRISTIAN D. KUMMEROW, Colorado State University, Co-Chair ANNA M. MICHALAK, Carnegie Institution for Science, Co-Chair STACEY W. BOLAND, Jet Propulsion Laboratory FRANCISCO P. CHAVEZ, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute WILLIAM E. DIETRICH (NAS), University of California, Berkeley KATHLEEN (KASS) O’NEILL GREEN, Kass Green and Associates DEANNA A. HENCE, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DANIEL J. JACOB, Harvard University DENNIS P. LETTENMAIER (NAE), University of California, Los Angeles LESLEY E. OTT, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center DAVID T. SANDWELL (NAS), Scripps Institution of Oceanography SUSAN L. USTIN, University of California, Davis ISABELLA VELICOGNA, University of California, Irvine XUBIN ZENG, University of Arizona Staff TARINI KONCHADY, Associate Program Officer, Space Studies Board DWAYNE A. DAY, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board LINDA M. WALKER, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Physics and Astronomy ARTHUR A. CHARO, Senior Program Officer, Space Studies Board COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director, Space Studies Board, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, and Board on Physics and Astronomy PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION v 

SPACE STUDIES BOARD MARGARET G. KIVELSON (NAS), University of California, Los Angeles, Chair JAMES H. CROCKER (NAE), Lockheed Martin Corporation, Vice Chair DANIELA CALZETTI (NAS), University of Massachusetts Amherst ROBIN M. CANUP (NAS), Southwest Research Institute DEEPTO CHAKRABARTY, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara MELINDA D. DYAR, Mount Holyoke College ANTONIO L. ELIAS (NAE), Orbital ATK, Inc. STEPHEN J. MACKWELL, National Science Foundation PETER I. MESZAROS (NAS), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park RICHARD M. OBERMANN, National Research Council NELSON PEDREIRO (NAE), Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company CHRISTA D. PETERS-LIDARD (NAE), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center MARK P. SAUNDERS, Independent Consultant HOWARD J. SINGER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration KEIVAN G. STASSUN, Vanderbilt University ERIKA B. WAGNER, Blue Origin, LLC PAUL D. WOOSTER, SpaceX ENDAWOKE YIZENGAW, The Aerospace Corporation GARY P. ZANK (NAS), University of Alabama in Huntsville Staff COLLEEN N. HARTMAN, Director TANJA PILZAK, Manager, Program Operations ALEXIS BHADHA, Senior Financial Assistant ZAKI QASIM, Senior Finance Business Partner PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vi 

Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: ANA P. BARROS (NAS), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign STEVEN J. BATTEL (NAE), Battel Engineering PAULA S. BONTEMPI, University of Rhode Island SARAH T. GILLE, Scripps Institution of Oceanography R. STEVEN NEREM, University of Colorado Boulder MATTHEW PRITCHARD, Cornell University DAVID ROY, Michigan State University CHRISTOPHER RUF, University of Michigan JOHN E. VIDALE (NAS), University of Southern California Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by BYRON D. TAPLEY (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin, and GRANT H. STOKES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION vii 



Contents PREFACE iv SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW OF THE DECADAL SURVEY 11 Overview of Midterm Assessment Process, 13 Overview of the Report, 14 2 ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND CHALLENGES IN A CHANGING EARTH SCIENCES OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 15 Scientific Highlights from NASA ESD Missions, 15 Increased Demand for Earth Observations from Space, 21 International Collaboration, 27 Full Exploitation of Other Opportunities: International Missions and Commercial Partners, 28 3 ASSESSING PROGRESS TOWARD THE DECADAL SURVEY VISION 30 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 30 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 44 4 OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE ALIGNMENT WITH DECADAL SURVEY PRIORITIES 46 Budget Shortfalls: Implementing Missions Outlined in the Decadal Survey, 46 Improving Communication, 49 5 LOOKING AHEAD: PREPARING FOR THE NEXT DECADAL REVIEW 50 Improve Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Efforts at NASA Earth Science Division to Enhance Vitality of Workforce, 50 Engage a Broader Constituency, 52 Develop a Framework for Determining the Balance Between Investments in Continuity and Discovery, 53 Actively Engage with the Earth System Modeling Community, 54 Develop and Implement Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies to Accelerate Scientific Research and Data-Driven Decisions from Satellite Observations, 55 REFERENCES 57 APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 63 B Community Request for Information 64 C Recommendations from Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space 65 

D Committee and Staff Biographical Information 69 E Acronyms and Abbreviations 74 PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION x 

Preface In December 2022, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) formally requested that the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convene an ad hoc committee to conduct a review of the responses from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey, Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space. This request was made in accordance with the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, which requires that the performance of each division in NASA’s Science Mission Directorate be assessed by the National Academies at 5-year intervals. The Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal Survey—Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space held its first meeting on June 27, 2023, via teleconference and convened four public meetings during its information-gathering phase (September 28–29, 2023, in Washington, DC; November 2–3, 2023, in Irvine, California; December 4, 2023, via teleconference; and January 25–26, 2024, in Irvine, California). During the public meetings, the committee received briefings from Karen St. Germain (NASA), Waleed Abdalati (University of Colorado Boulder), Scott Braun (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center), Tim Newman (USGS), Steve Volz (NOAA), Fran Bagenal (University of Colorado Boulder), Wanda Ward (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign), Charlie Bolden (Charles F. Bolden Group, LLC), Wanda Sigur (Lambent Engineering, LLC), Duane Waliser (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Dave Schimel (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Paul Rosen (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Frank Webb (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Gerald Bawden (NASA), Steven Hamburg (Environmental Defense Fund), Joe Mascaro (Planet Labs PBC), John Worden (Jet Propulsion Laboratory), and Mauro Facchini (European Commission). Committee on the Review of Progress Toward Implementing the Decadal SurveyThriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observation from Space PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION xi