Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Midterm Assessment of Progress Toward Implementation of the Decadal Survey (2024)

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4 Opportunities to Improve Alignment with Decadal Survey Priorities As noted in Chapter 1, the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018) recommended a program that was implementable, balanced, and carefully considered to enable advances in Earth system science and applications from space within the resources that were stipulated to be available during the decade. Yet, progress on the recommended program has been slow for a variety of reasons discussed in Chapters 2 and 3. While there have been notable successes, including the launches of several missions in the pre-decadal survey program of record (see Table 2-1 and Figure 4- 1) and progress in both interagency and international partnerships related to decadal survey priorities, the budget stipulated to be available for the decadal survey’s recommended flight program largely failed to materialize. This chapter explores opportunities for improving alignment with decadal survey priorities to maximize progress through the remainder of the decade. BUDGET SHORTFALLS: IMPLEMENTING MISSIONS OUTLINED IN THE DECADAL SURVEY While the decadal survey recommended implementation of a balanced NASA portfolio designed to fit within the budget stipulated to be available for its priorities in 2018, as described in Chapter 3, that budget failed to materialize. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has not, however, fully leveraged the decision rules nor implemented the descopes recommended in the decadal survey to address budget challenges. Recommendation: To address budgetary challenges, NASA should follow the guidance provided in the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey (NASEM 2018), retaining competitive opportunities in the Earth System Explorer and Earth Venture lines, and implementing the Designated program element missions to the extent possible within current constraints and consistent with the decadal survey’s identified descopes. Additional specific recommendations for each of the Designated program element missions and studies are provided below. The importance of establishing the decadal survey’s intended cadence of competitive opportunities to improve programmatic responsiveness, maximize the role of competition, encourage innovation, and drive engagement across the scientific community was discussed in Chapter 3. During the final writing stages of this report, in mid-March of 2024, the president’s fiscal year (FY) 2025 budget request for NASA was released that significantly modified the plans that had been presented to the committee regarding implementation of the Designated program element missions. Because this report is based on a bottom-up review of the program to date, and the conclusions that this report reached are in some cases similar to the changes suggested by NASA in their budget request, the committee believed it was appropriate to leave its original recommendations regarding the Designated program element missions and studies, but to follow those recommendations with short notes regarding similarities and differences between them and the president’s FY 2025 budget request. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 46 

OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE ALIGNMENT WITH DECADAL SURVEY PRIORITIES 47 FIGURE 4-1 NASA’s PACE (Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem) mission launched in February 2024. One of PACE’s objectives is to monitor global phytoplankton distribution and record new observations of the color of the ocean which is determined by the interaction of phytoplankton and sunlight. SOURCE: Courtesy of NASA Goddard/Denny Henry, https://www.nasa.gov/get-involved/virtual-guest-program/nasa-invites-public-to-share-in- excitement-of-pace-mission-launch. Surface Biology and Geology The Earth System Observatory Independent Review Board (IRB) found no issues with Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) meeting its cost cap, and both instruments seem well positioned to move forward in their development (ESO IRB 2022), consistent with the decadal survey’s recommendation for its early implementation. However, despite technical readiness and compliance with cost caps, the IRB report found that SBG is underfunded in years 2024 to 2028. The result, thus far, is having a bigger impact on Visible to ShortWave InfraRed (VSWIR) than the Thermal Infrared (TIR) because the latter has apparent funding priority owing to the launch date requirements of an involvement of an international partner. SBG-VSWIR implementation has been stalled awaiting an implementation decision from NASA’s Earth Science Division (ESD) and appropriate funding. The delay to an otherwise ready SBG- VSWIR implementation only serves to increase costs and decrease science and applications return because it reduces the potential overlap between the SBG-VSWIR and SBG-TIR missions. Finding: The SBG mission is in a position to deliver success within ESD’s limited budget. Proceeding with both SBG-VSWIR and SBG-TIR missions without further delay will minimize cost and achieve maximum science benefit. Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division should proceed with both the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG)-Visible to ShortWave InfraRed and the SBG-Thermal Infrared missions without further delay in order to minimize cost and maximize achievable overlap. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

48 THRIVING ON A CHANGING PLANET: A MIDTERM ASSESSMENT The above recommendation is consistent with the president’s FY 2025 NASA budget request for the SBG-TIR. It differs in that the committee also recommends that SBG-VSWIR should be launched without further delay for reasons stated earlier, whereas the FY 2025 request delays it another 2.5 years to 2032. Aerosols and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Although the Atmospheric Observing System (AOS) mission concept recently went through a Key Decision Point-A (KDP-A) review, its eventual scope and cost remain unclear. Budget scenarios, even if the individual cost caps could be maintained, appear to extend the development cost well beyond the current decadal implementation cycle. In the committee’s view, the community would be better served by implementing the decadal survey’s well-reasoned descopes than pursuing more ambitious yet unaffordable options. Recommendation: NASA should fully implement the 2017 Earth science and applications from space decadal survey’s (NASEM 2018) prescribed descopes for the Aerosols and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Targeted Observables, adding two Earth System Explorer solicitations to the program with Targeted Observable 1 (TO-1) and TO-2 eligible to compete and pursuing a simpler single band radar mission responsive to TO-5. The president’s FY 2025 NASA budget request does not include sufficient detail to assess current AOS plans versus the committee’s recommendation; however, moving toward a decoupled architecture with smaller missions appears to at least be a step in the same direction. Mass Change The cost of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity (GRACE-C) was slightly higher than the maximum decadal survey recommended investment in this Targeted Observable. This was driven by stakeholder demand for the improved performance of the Laser Ranging Interferometer instrument for higher temporal resolution and spatial resolution. Recommendation: While it is appropriate to implement the GRACE-C (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity) mission on its current timeline, NASA should identify a long-term solution for achieving measurement continuity beyond GRACE-C at lower cost to the agency. This recommendation is consistent with the president’s FY 2025 NASA budget request for GRACE-C, although the president’s budget request does not discuss plans for continuity beyond GRACE-C. Surface Deformation and Change While a number of options have been studied, new observations from the NISAR (NASA-Indian Space Research Organisation Synthetic Aperture Radar) mission expected in 2024, the high cost of the free-flying synthetic aperture radar missions, and the planned Sentinel ROSE-L mission by the Copernicus program all point to the benefits of continued studies to optimize the contributions that are possible in the current budget environment. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION 

OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE ALIGNMENT WITH DECADAL SURVEY PRIORITIES 49 Recommendation: NASA should engage with the European Copernicus program to explore ways to meet the science objectives tied to the Surface Deformation and Change Targeted Observable through a potential collaboration. Unmet science and continuity objectives should be re-evaluated once NISAR (NASA-ISRO [Indian Space Research Organisation] Synthetic Aperture Radar) data become available. The president’s FY 2025 NASA budget request does not include any provision for Surface Deformation and Change beyond NISAR, which differs from the committee’s recommendation to preserve the decadal survey’s recommendation to pursue Surface Deformation and Change measurements post-NISAR. The committee acknowledges that neither NISAR nor ROSE-L have the same capabilities called for to address the Surface Deformation and Change Targeted Observable and encourages continued consideration after NISAR data becomes available. IMPROVING COMMUNICATION In general, ESD maintains regular communications with the community via webinars (hosted by both the Science Mission Directorate [SMD] and ESD) and ESD town halls at American Geophysical Union (AGU) and American Meteorological Society (AMS) annual meetings. From the request for information collected as part of this midterm review, it is clear that the community appreciates these communication opportunities. When there are budget shortfalls, such as the current situation for ESD, however, it is crucial to communicate expected program impacts (e.g., descoped mission plans, mission delays, changes in solicitation schedules) to help the community understand how and why decisions are made. It remains unclear, for example, how decisions have been made regarding trades in mission scope with respect to decadal survey recommendations. All of the concepts presented in response to Designated mission priorities, except one, are significantly over the recommended cost cap, while the top-line ESD budget is relatively stagnant. This suggests a significant disconnect between the trade space being examined by study teams and ESD’s program constraints. The reason for this disconnect is unclear; however, improved communication of program constraints might have driven more responsive trade space exploration. The decision-making process would benefit from more direct and intentional involvement of the scientific and applications communities. Although it is understood that plans change when budgets fluctuate, there is currently no obvious accessible resource that describes the current program plan. For instance, the posted “Planning List for SMD Solicitations” relevant to ESD missions is usually out of date and unreliable, and a 2023 planning list (if it exists) could not be found from the NASA websites.1 While the announcement of opportunity timelines for various flight programs are communicated in the AGU and AMS town halls, such written information could not be found from the NASA website. Recommendation: NASA’s Earth Science Division should improve its communication with the community to provide the rationale for the decisions it makes particularly in the face of inadequate resources, including providing timely information about program plans, budgets, and anticipated solicitation timelines through town halls, webinars, and via the NASA website. 1 As this report went to press, the 2024 planning list was released: https://soma.larc.nasa.gov/StandardAO/pdf_files/Planning%20List%20for%20SMD%20Solicitations%2020240506. pdf. PREPUBLICATION COPY—SUBJECT TO FURTHER EDITORIAL CORRECTION