New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide (2024)

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2024 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1113 New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling A GUIDE Naveen Eluru Dewan Ashraful Parvez Tanmoy Bhowmik University of Central Florida Orlando, FL Subscriber Categories Planning and Forecasting • Transportation, General Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1113 Project 20-102(29) ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-70982-8 Library of Congress Control Number 2024937442 © 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or spec- ifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. 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e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major program divisions of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to mobilize expertise, experience, and knowledge to anticipate and solve complex transportation-related challenges. e Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,500 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1113 Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Trey Joseph Wadsworth, Senior Program Officer Mazen Alsharif, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Doug English, Senior Editor NCHRP PROJECT 20-102(29) PANEL Field of Special Projects Zhongren Wang, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento, CA (Chair) Katie Beck, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing, MI Johanna I. Cockburn, City of Greensboro, Greensboro, NC Dalia Leven, Cambridge Systematics, Washington, DC Carrie McInerney, Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Watertown, MA Suman Kumar Mitra, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Fayetteville, AR Lubna Shoaib, East-West Gateway Council of Governments, St. Louis, MO Stanley E. Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO Jeremy Raw, FHWA Liaison

NCHRP Research Report 1113 provides a guide to travel demand modeling practitioners to consider new mobility options (NMOs) in travel demand forecasting models (TDFMs). The guide documents the potential magnitude of NMO impacts on TDFMs and their components that are affected by NMOs and contains instructions on updating TDFM components. The guide identifies the challenges related to the available data needed to effectively use TDFMs to consider NMOs and proposes the use of synthetic data until observable data are collected in the jurisdiction where the modeling will forecast travel demand. The guide will be of interest to traffic demand modeling professionals at state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other public agencies. Emerging transportation technologies and shared mobility services, or NMOs, are affect- ing travel behavior and demand. NMOs may include shared micromobility, trans portation networking companies (TNCs), and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). As NMOs grow in availability and use, transportation planners and decision-makers need to be able to understand how to harness positive and mitigate negative impacts. One of the primary tools available to understand potential impacts and future uncertainty are TDFMs. However, many of the current generation TDFMs do not explicitly include these NMOs. Therefore, there was a need to identify best practices, case studies, and strategies to incorporate NMOs in travel demand modeling to better inform decision-making and investment selection processes. Under NCHRP 20-102(29), “Incorporating New Mobility Options into Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling,” the University of Central Florida was asked to develop a prac- titioners’ guide for DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations looking to incorporate NMOs into TDFMs. The research team developed three use cases that exhibit NMOs in TDFMs with real data for base scenarios and synthetic data for NMO scenarios. In addition to the guide, published as NCHRP Research Report 1113, the following deliver- ables are available on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching NCHRP Research Report 1113: New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide. 1. NCHRP Web-Only Document 399: Developing a Guide for New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling, which is the research agency’s report documenting the development of the guide and the entire research effort; 2. Research results presentation; 3. An implementation memo; and 4. Datasets, codes, and tutorials for three use cases: (1) household vehicle ownership, (2) household trip rates, and (3) mode choice. F O R E W O R D By Trey Joseph Wadsworth Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

1 Summary 2 Chapter 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Background 4 1.2 Research Objective and Guide Structure 6 Chapter 2 Travel Demand Metrics 6 2.1 Trip-Based Model 9 2.2 Tour-Based or Activity-Based Models 11 2.3 Summary 14 Chapter 3 TDFM Updates 14 3.1 TDFM Update Considerations 14 3.2 Framework for Update Process 16 3.3 Use Case Example 1: Household Vehicle Ownership 18 3.4 Use Case Example 2: Household Trip Rate Model 19 3.5 Use Case Example 3: Trip Mode Choice Model 21 3.6 Summary 22 Chapter 4 Summary and Guide Adoption 22 4.1 Summary 22 4.2 Additional Resources 24 References 25 Appendix Step-by-Step Notes on Running the R Codes with Data C O N T E N T S