Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.
D I BASTE RS by Design A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States DENNIS S. MILETI University of Colorado at Boulder with the contributions of participants in the Assessment of Research and Applications on Natural Hazards AN ACTIVITY OF TH E I INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION Joseph Henry Press Washington, D.C.
JOSEPH HENRY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, D.C. 20418 The Joseph Henry Press, an imprint of the National Academy Press, was created with the goal of making books on science, technology, and health more widely available to profes- sionals and the public. Joseph Henry was one of the founders of the National Academy of Sciences and a leader of early American science. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mileti, Dennis S. Disasters by design: a reassessment of natural hazards in the United States / Dennis S. Mileti p. cm. (Natural hazards and disasters) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-06360-4 (alk. paper) 1. Emergency management United States. 2. Disaster relief United States. 3. Natural disasters United States. 4. Hazardous geographic environments United States. 5. Sustainable development- United States. I. Title. II. Series. HV551.3.M55 1999 363.34'0973 ddc21 99-295 1 1 CIP Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.
Contributing Authors Christopher R. Adams, Colorado State University Daniel Alesch, University of Wisconsin at Green Bay James Ament, State Farm Fire and Casualty Co. Jill Andrews, University of Southern California Norbert S. Baer, New York University Jay Baker, Florida State University Conrad Battreal, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Timothy Beatley, University of Virginia at Charlottesville Stephen O. Bender, Organization of American States Philip R. Berke, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Dennis Black, Colorado State University B. Wayne Blanchard, Federal Emergency Management Agency Robert Bolin, Arizona State University Patricia A. Bolton, Battelle Human Affairs Research Center Linda B. Bourque, University of California at Los Angeles David grower, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill William M. Brown, U.S. Geological Survey Ian G. Buckle, State University of New York at Buffalo Angelia P. Bukley, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Raymond }. Burby, University of New Oricans Bonnie Butler, Federal Emergency Management Agency David L. Butler, University of Colorado at Boulder Peggy A. Case, Terrebonne Readiness and Assistance Coalition
IV Harold Cochrane, Colorado State University Nicolas Colmenares, University of Colorado at Boulder Louise Comfort, University of Pittsburgh James N. Corbridge, Jr., University of Colorado at Boulder Susan L. Cutter, University of South Carolina at Columbia JoAnne DeRouen Darlington, Colorado State University James F. Davis, California Division of Mines and Geology Robert E. Deyle, Florida State University John A. Dracup, University of California at Los Angeles Thomas Durham, Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium Ute Dymon, Kent State University Charles Eadie, City of Watsonville at California David Etkin, Environment Canada Dean C. Flesner, State Farm Fire and Casualty Co. Betsy Forrest, University of Colorado at Boulder Alice Fothergill, University of Colorado at Boulder Steven P. French, Georgia Institute of Technology Karen Gahagan, Institute for Business and Home Safety Luis A. Garcia, Colorado State University David F. Gillespie, Washington University David R. Godschalk, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Joseph H. Golden, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Marjorie Greene, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Eve Gruntfest, University of Colorado at Colorado Springs Neil Hawkins, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Walter Hays, U.S. Geological Survey James P. Heaney, University of Colorado at Boulder Edward J. Hecker, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Henry Hengeveld, Environment Canada Michael Hodgson, University of South Carolina at Columbia Ken Hon. U.S. Geological Survey Dale Jamieson, University of Colorado at Boulder Brian Jarvinen, National Hurricane Center Edward Kaiser, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Jack D. Kartez, University of Southern Maine Robert Klein, National Association of Insurance Commissioners Howard Kunreuther, University of Pennsylvania at Philadephia James F. Lander, University of Colorado at Boulder Larry Larson, Association of State Floodplain Managers Eugene L. Lecomte, Institute for Business and Home Safety Contributing Authors
Contributing Authors Michael K. Lindell, Texas A&M University Rocky Lopes, American Red Cross George Mader, Spangle Associates Enrique Maestas, University of Texas at Austin Robert Martin, University of California at Berkeley William Martin, ITT Hartford Peter }. May, University of Washington at Seattle James McDonald, Texas Tech University Elaine McReynolds, Federal Emergency Management Agency Kishor Mehta, Texas Tech University Mario Mejia-Navarro, Colorado State University Jerry Mitchell, University of South Carolina at Columbia Elliott Mittler, University of Wisconsin at Green Bay Jacquelyn Monday, TLM Associates Betty Morrow, Florida International University John Mulady, United Services Automobile Association John-Pau! Mulilis, Pennsylvania State University at Monaca Susan Murty, University of Iowa at Iowa City Mary Fran Myers, University of Colorado at Boulder Sarah K. Nathe, California Office of Emergency Services David Neal, University of North Texas Joanne M. Nigg, University of Delaware Stuart Nishenko, Federal Emergency Management Agency Franklin W. Nutter, Reinsurance Association of America Eric K. Noji, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Charles Nyce, University of Hartford Paul W. O'Brien, California State University at Stanislaus Robert Olshansky, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Robert Olson, Robert Olson Associates, Inc. Philip N. Omi, Colorado State University Michael }. O'Rourke, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Risa Palm, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Eve Passerini, University of Colorado at Boulder Edward Pasterick, Federal Emergency Management Agency Pamela Pate, University of Texas at Austin Robert Paterson, University of Texas at Austin Walter Gillis Peacock, Florida International University Ronald Perry, Arizona State University William }. Petak, University of Southern California Jon A. Peterka, Colorado State University
Vl Contributing Authors Brenda Phillips, Texas Woman's University John C. Pine, Louisiana State University Rutherford H. Platt, University of Massachusetts at Amherst Roy S. Popkin, Popkin Associates Kenneth W. Potter, University of Wisconsin at Madison George Rogers, Texas A&M University Richard }. Roth, Jr., California Department of Insurance Richard }. Roth, Sr., Consultant Claire B. Rubin, Claire B. Rubin & Associates David Sample, University of Colorado at Boulder Paula Schulz, California Office of Emergency Services Stanley Schumm, Colorado State University James Schwab, American Planning Association Michael S. Scott, University of South Carolina at Columbia William Solecki, Florida State University John H. Sorensen, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Kenneth R. Stroech, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Richard Stuart, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Craig E. Taylor, National Hazards Management, Inc. Deborah S. K. Thomas, University of South Carolina at Columbia John Tiefenbacher, Southwest Texas State University Kathleen Tierney, University of Delaware L. Thomas Tobin, Tobin and Associates Kenneth C. Topping, Cambria Community Services Department Susan K. Tubbesing, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute Eric VanMarcke, Princeton University Barbara Vogt, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Dennis Wenger, Texas A&M University James L. Wescoat, University of Colorado at Boulder French Wetmore, French & Associates, Ltd. David Whitney, California State University at Long Beach Berry Williams, Berry A. Williams & Associates Leonard T. Wright, University of Colorado at Boulder
Foreword HE NATION S FIRST ASSESSMENT of research on natural hazards got under way in 1972 at the Institute of Behavioral Sciences of the University of Colorado at Boulder. It was an interdisciplinary effort, with an emphasis on the social sciences, funded by the National Science Foundation and led by geographer Gilbert F. White and sociologist T. Eugene Haas. The project involved many graduate students, scholars, practitioners, and policymakers. Their aim was to as- sess the nation's knowledge of natural hazards and disasters, with an emphasis on the social sciences. Along the way they expected to point out major needed policy directions for the nation and to inven- tory future research needs. A summary volume issued at the completion of the project (White and Haas, 1975) brought the substance of that knowledge together, analyzed the gaps, and recommended certain policy changes and numerous research needs. (A retro- spective look at the impacts of that assessment is presented in Appendix B.) Contemporary conversations about how sustain- able hazards mitigation could result in disaster- resilient communities began in the early l990s among . . V11
. . . V111 Foreword a few individuals who worked in federal agencies and academia. It was formalized during a workshop in the summer of 1992 in Estes Park, Colorado. Attended by over five dozen of the nation's leading hazards experts, the workshop concluded that it was appropriate to move for- ward with a second assessment of hazards in the United States and that the unifying theme for the work should be sustainable development. A subsequent workshop in Boulder, Colorado, in October 1994 brought many of the same people and others together to create a specific agenda for the second assessment. At that time, members of the nation's policymaking arena for example, the Subcommittees on Natural Haz- ards and Risk Analysis in the White House and the Federal Emergency Management Agency explored the idea of further linking hazards and sustainability. These discussions and the work that followed from them have led to the present volume. The many experts who contributed to this project started by going to work on the project's formal mission. This was to summarize what is known in the various fields of science and engineering that is applicable to natural and related technological hazards, and to make some research and policy recommendations for the future. The project began with its feet firmly planted in science and engineering, but it ended in an onto- logical expression. The single most important contribution that this sec- ond assessment has to offer is the recommendation for a fundamental shift in the character of how the nation's citizens, communities, govern- ments, and businesses conduct themselves in relation to the natural envi- ronments they occupy. This book calls for and speaks to the specifics required to shift the national culture in ways that would stop at its gen- esis the ever-increasing spiral of losses from natural and technological hazards and disasters. The task will be to create and install "sustainable hazards mitigation" in the culture of the nation. Disasters by Design does not stop at summarizing the hazards re- search findings from the past two decades. Instead, it synthesizes what is known and proceeds from that synthesis to outline a proposed shift in direction in research and policy for natural and related technological hazards in the United States. This book takes a broad focus and occasionally a somewhat specula tive tone. It is aimed at a general audience, including policymakers and practitioners. Scholarly readers will note that there are relatively few citations to academic work. This is intentional: first, because the logistics of attempting to cite everything published in the past 20 years would be overwhelming and would increase the manuscript's length by well over
Foreword IX 100 pages. The second reason is that this volume comprises synthesized statements of what is known, collectively, about hazards and human coping strategies, which in most cases cannot properly be attributed to a specific source. As a rough way of pointing interested readers toward more information, some citations to the published literature are included at key points in the text. These should not be taken as the authoritative sources on the topics in question but simply as a starting point for more intensive reading. Readers who are interested in viewing the full list of references brought together to support this assessment can find the bibliography on the World Wide Web home page of the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center at http :llwww. Colorado . ecu/hazards . This volume is one in a series published by the Toseph Henry Press that stemmed from the second national assessment on natural and re- lated technological hazards and disasters. The participants in the second assessment's subgroups were invited to write their own books on special- ized topics and to have those manuscripts considered for publication as part of the series. The result of those invitations is several additional books in the Toseph Henry Press series. The other volumes cover insur- ance, organized by Howard Kunreuther and Richard T. Roth, Sr. of the Wharton School; land use, assembled by a team headed by Raymond Burby of the University of New Oricans; disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, assembled by Kathleen Tierney of the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware; and a national hazards and risk assessment, led by Susan Cutter at the University of South Carolina. Many other written products have and will emerge from the second as- sessment, but the Toseph Henry Press book series represents the second assessment's major written products. The second assessment also resulted in the first new publication se- ries by the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Cen- ter at the University of Colorado at Boulder, since the center was founded in 1976. The new series is known as the "Natural Hazards Informer." It is designed to summarize in plain language what is known in focused areas of knowledge regarding natural and related technological hazards and disasters. The series is designed to reach local practitioners, and its publication will begin in early 1999. It will be published several times a year by the center in a short newsletter-type format and will be dissemi- nated free to some 15,000 subscribers to the center's newsletter, the Natural Hazards Observer. Dennis S. Mileti Boulder, Colorado
Acknowledgments HIS PROJECT WAS FUNDED by the National Science Foundation under grant number CMS93-12647 with supporting contributions from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the U.S. Environmental Protec- tion Agency, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Geo- logical Survey. The support of these agencies is greatly appreciated. Only the author, however, is responsible for the information, analyses, and recommendations contained in this book. A very special "thank you" is extended to J. Eleonora Sabadell and William A. Anderson of the National Science Foundation for placing their confidence in us to carry out this mis- sion. Special appreciation is also extended to the per- sons and the organizations they represent for the time and ideas they contributed as members of the project's advisory panel. Deepest gratitude is expressed to the following persons: William A. Anderson, National Science Founda t~on; Michael Armstrong, Federal Emergency Manage- ment Agency; Xl
. . X11 Acknowledgments Riley Chung, National Institute of Standards and Technology; Caroline Clarke, National Research Council; James F. Davis, California Division of Mines and Geology; Walter Hays, U.S. Geological Survey; Edward }. Hecker, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; William H. Hooke, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Robert Kistner, Colorado Office of Emergency Management; Richard Krimm, Federal Emergency Management Agency; Eugene L. Lecomte, Institute for Business and Home Safety; James Makris, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; I. Eleanora Sabadell, National Science Foundation; James M. Saveland, U.S. Forest Service; Kenneth R. Stroech, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Randall Uptime, U.S. Geological Survey; Gilbert F. White, University of Colorado at Boulder; and Arthur Zeizel, Federal Emergency Management Agency. Some of the work performed for this assessment was accomplished by subgroups of people who worked on specific topics. Special apprecia- tion is extended to those who coordinated the work of the subgroups. David F. Gillespie, Subgroup on the Interactive Structure of Risk; Raymond }. Burby, Subgroup on Land Use; James P. Heaney and Jon A. Perterka, Subgroup on Engineering; Susan Cutter, Subgroup on Risks, Losses, and Costs; John H. Sorensen, Subgroup on Prediction, Forecast, and Warning; Kathleen Tierney, Subgroup on Preparedness and Response; Dennis Wenger, Subgroup on Reconstruction; Howard Kunreuther, Subgroup on Insurance; and Michael K. Lindell, Subgroup on Adoption and Implementation. Many professionals were invited in the latter part of 1997 to review the first full draft of the manuscript. The warmest regards and greatest appreciation are extended to the people listed below, who returned their useful and insightful critiques and recommendations for revision of the original draft of the manuscript:
Acknowledgments . . . x~ Benigno Aguirre, William A. Anderson, Ken Baechel, Philip R. Berke, Robert Bolin, Pete Brewster, Neil R. Britton, James Bruce, Louise Com- fort, Susan L. Cutter, James C. Douglas, Thomas E. Drabek, Russell R. Dynes, David Etkin, Robert Fletcher, Betsy C. Forrest, David F. Gillespie, Joseph Golden, Ruby I. Harpst, Janet C. Herrin, Kenneth Hewitt, Charles W. Howe, Wilfred D. Iwan, Paul Jennings, Steven }. Jensen, Joseph G. Kimble, Gary A. Kreps, Brett Kriger, Howard Kunreuther, James F. Lander, Eugene L. Lecomte, George Mader, Peter }. May, Michael }. McKee, Michael Michalek, William A. Mitchell, Elliott Mittler, Betty Hearn Morrow, John-Pau! Mulilis, Mary Fran Myers, Eve Passerini, Dallas Peck, Ray Pena, Roy S. Popkin, E. L. Quarantelli, Richard }. Roth, Jr., Claire B. Rubin, James Russell, Stanley Schumm, Robert L. Schuster, Ellen Seidman, Frank H. Thomas, Kathleen Tierney, Susan K. Tubbesing, James L. Wescoat, Gilbert F. White, John D. Wiener, Ben Wisner, and Arthur Zeizel. Appreciation is also extended to the people who reviewed and com- mented on the revised second review draft of the manuscript. These re- viewers provided the sharp eyes needed to revise the manuscript into its final form. They brought a variety of perspectives to that review, includ- ing national policy, local government, natural science, social science, engineering, the private sector, and nongovernment organizations. Many thanks to the following second-draft reviewers: Daniel Abrams, Michael Armstrong, Mary Carrido, Jack Cermak, Thomas Drabek, Nicholas Flores, William Hooke, Rocky Lopes, James Makris, Shirley Mattingly, Joanne M. Nigg, Ann Patton, James W. Russell, Randy Uptime, and Gilbert F. White. A very special "thank you" is due JoAnne DeRouen Darlington, who left Colorado State University to join the project staff at the University of Colorado at Boulder, to work as a postdoctoral fellow on this assess- ment. Her substantive contributions are greatly appreciated as well as her help in providing oversight and leadership for the graduate students who worked on the assessment. Warm appreciation also goes to David Morton, who lent his pa- tience and willingness to serve as a personal librarian to every contribu- tor to the project. Finally, literally thousands of pages of original draft text were edited as part of the process to produce this book. Jacquelyn L. Monday edited
XIV Acknowledgments the manuscript pages in whatever form they arrived, without complaint. Jacki, you will always have my deepest appreciation for the excellent work that you provided as an editor and for your substantive contribu- tions to the text as it emerged over several drafts. Mostly, thank you for taking this project on as your own and for the relentless commitment you brought to it.
Contents SUMMARY A SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK FOR NATURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS Origins and Development of the Current Approach, 18 Moving Beyond Existing Approaches, 24 Principles of Sustainable Hazards Mitigation, 30 Conclusion, 35 1 17 SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE HAZARDS MITIGATION 41 Miami, Florida, 42 Boulder, Colorado, 50 San Francisco, California, 57 Sustainability and Hazards Mitigation, 63 LOSSES, COSTS, AND IMPACTS Deaths, Injuries, and Dollar Losses, 66 Other Impacts, 90 Hazard Losses by State, 94 Issues in Loss and Impact Measurement, 96 Future Losses, 100 Data Needs, 102 Conclusion, 103 65 xv
XVI 4 THE INTERACTIVE STRUCTURE OF HAZARD Systems, 106 The Hazardousness of the Nation, 133 5 INFLUENCES ON THE ADOPTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION Decisionmaking Processes, 136 Social Influences, 144 Economic Factors, 148 Legal Considerations, 149 Other Influences, 152 Conclusion, 154 6 TOOLS FOR SUSTAINABLE HAZARDS MITIGATION Land-Use Planning and Management, 155 Building Codes and Standards, 161 Insurance, 166 Prediction, Forecast, and Warning, 174 Engineering, 200 Conclusion, 206 PREPAREDNESS, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY Disasters, 209 Disaster Preparedness, 215 Response, 220 Factors That Influence Preparedness and Response, 226 Recovery and Reconstruction, 229 Conclusions, 239 8 INNOVATIVE PATHS AND NEW DIRECTIONS New Technology and Approaches, 242 The Research Infrastructure, 255 Education, 258 International Comparisons and Exchanges, 261 Model Communities, 264 Conclusion, 265 Contents 105 135 155 209 241
Contents 9 GETTING FROM HERE TO THERE One View of Sustainable Hazards Mitigation in Action, 268 Some Policy and Research Steps That Need to Be Taken, 274 A Final Word, 287 REFERENCES . . XVII 267 289 Appendix A: Recommendations for Further Traditional Research 297 Appendix B: Impacts of the 1975 Assessment 315 Appendix C: Putting Knowledge into Practice 327 INDEX 335
D I BASTE RS by Design
