EXPERT Q&A

The Republican Party convenes in Milwaukee for its National Convention to highlight its platform and unify members. Will Thomas, assistant professor of business law, said the four-day event, which begins Monday, comes at an opportune time as news reports indicate infighting among Democrats.

Why are party conventions important, especially when voters know the presumptive presidential candidates?

One hundred years ago, party conventions were exciting events because voters didn’t know ahead of time who the party would choose as its presidential candidate. But today, because of the modern primary system, we know the answer to that question long before a convention begins.

Even still, party conventions continue to play a crucial role in selecting the party’s presidential candidate. Yes, Donald Trump has won every state primary, but that fact alone doesn’t make him the party’s nominee. That is because a candidate can become the party’s nominee only when he or she is selected by a majority of party delegates, which happens at a convention. This nomination process is not just political theater: legally, a nominee has to be formally approved by the party before he can be added to election ballots as the party’s candidate.

GOP’s latest platform emphasizes immigration and economics. How surprised were you that the party has softened its stance on issues like abortion? Could that alienate Republican voters?

The GOP’s new proposed platform is striking for a lot of reasons. First, it’s short—about a quarter of the length of the party’s 2016 platform. But longer than in 2020, when the GOP chose not to have a platform. Second, the document reads less like a traditional policy platform and more like a campaign press release, right down to the idiosyncratic capitalization that Donald Trump uses on Truth Social.

Third, the GOP’s proposed platform dramatically limits its discussion of abortion compared to previous platforms. That decision is understandable because, since conservative justices on the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion rights have proven to be a losing issue for Republican candidates at the ballot box. However, although the proposed platform spends less time on abortion compared to prior platforms, what it does say is far more radical than where the Republican party was even five years ago. The new platform discusses abortion in the context of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, and notably refers to “personhood.” This language is alluding to “fetal personhood,” an extraordinarily controversial legal concept that has only recently become popular among red-state legislatures, and which has led to the effective outlawing of IVF in states like Alabama.

A convention highlight is the announcement of the vice president running mate. Who would be ideal for the presidential ticket?

The vice presidential candidate is usually announced a week or so before the convention, which means we’re expecting an announcement any day now. All reports point to the candidate being one of three people: Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), Sen. J.D. Vance (OH) or Gov. Doug Burgum (ND).

Of course, the major issue is the candidates’ age and fitness for office. I expect that both senators have an edge here over the older Burgum. That said, Donald Trump made clear throughout his first term that personal loyalty is the defining quality in his advisers, so I suspect that his team is closely scrutinizing all three candidates’ past criticisms of Trump.

How likely is the convention activity to sway undecided voters?

It is common for candidates to see a polling bump after their convention, but that benefit doesn’t last long. Conventions are usually more about bringing together the party faithful than convincing undecided voters.

This year, however, might prove the exception to the rule. The Republican Convention is happening when, owing to Biden’s disastrous performance in the first presidential debate, the Democratic Party is as fractured over its nominee as any party has been in a generation. This makes the GOP convention a great opportunity for Republicans to capitalize on Democratic infighting. The real question is whether Republicans are ready to reach out to undecided voters rather than just focus on stoking their base.