Mayor Giuliani has nosed ahead of First Lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in their likely race for the U.S. Senate, according to an exclusive Post poll.
The survey by John Zogby International of Utica found 47.8 percent backing Giuliani, while 43.5 percent favored Mrs. Clinton.
Giuliani’s edge – although within the poll’s margin of error – is an improvement in his standing since the last Post poll. That survey in early August had the contest thisclose, with Mrs. Clinton at 44.7 percent and Giuliani at 44 percent.
Zogby said that although the election is more than a year away, both potential candidates have solidified their support.
The survey found that only 6.1 percent of likely voters had yet to make up their minds.
“This is a dogfight until the end,” Zogby said.
“I don’t see anyone switching from Hillary to Rudy or from Rudy to Hillary. It’s 300,000 or 350,000 undecided voters who are going to determine this race.”
The first lady has slipped recently, partly due to the uproar over President Clinton’s clemency offer to 16 convicted FALN terrorists and her flip-flopping on the issue, Zogby said.
“That pushed her down a couple points,” Zogby said.
Opposition to President Clinton’s decision was heavy among suburbanites and independents – key voting groups that Mrs. Clinton is trying to woo.
The first lady is leading Giuliani in the city (55.8 percent to 38.2 percent), while the mayor tops her in the suburbs (58.9 percent to 36.3 percent) and upstate (46.5 percent to 40.4 percent).
Among independent voters, Giuliani has the edge, 56.4 percent to 36.2 percent.
The poll shows Mrs. Clinton with strong backing from Jews (55.9 percent to 35.2 percent), blacks (86.7 percent to 9.9 percent) and women (50.8 percent to 39.5 percent).
Giuliani is doing well with men (56.6 percent to 35.8 percent), Catholics (57.5 percent to 34.6 percent), and whites (54.7 percent to 35.7 percent).
The survey found the No. 1 question New Yorkers have about Giuliani is how will he represent upstate, while the most important question facing Mrs. Clinton is why is she running.
Voters’ earlier concerns over the Clintons’ marriage have all but disappeared, the poll found.
The first lady’s unfavorable rating also remains higher than Giuliani’s, 41.5 percent versus 35.3 percent. Their favorable rating was virtually identical, 55 percent for the mayor and 55.4 percent for the first lady.