The results of tomorrow’s primary elections could provide some tantalizing clues to the political fortunes of candidates running next year – and even to a first lady seeking her first elective office.
Some of the races to watch:
* Hillary Rodham Clinton is certain to quash her unknown Democratic rival, physician Mark McMahon. The only question is the size of the protest vote against Clinton.
“If he came in at 25 percent, she’d be dead,” offered Joe Mercurio, a Republican political strategist.
Rick Lazio’s campaign manager set the bar at a more generous 30 percent.
Certainly, any bigger number is a danger signal for Clinton come November.
* Bronx Democratic leader Roberto Ramirez has four candidates in contention tomorrow, including Larry Seabrook vs. incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel.
Engel is the favorite, so Ramirez won’t be hurt too badly if Seabrook goes down to defeat. But Ramirez is a key supporter of Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer’s mayoral bid next year.
If Ramirez’s candidates for the Assembly and state Senate are also losers, the Bronx organization will have a much tougher time delivering for Ferrer in 2001.
Especially worrisome for Ramirez is the candidacy of Pedro Espada Jr., a longtime nemesis who is trying to recapture the state Senate seat he gave up to David Rosado in 1996.
* Clarence Norman, the Brooklyn Democratic leader, is expected to beat back a second challenge to his Assembly seat by cop James Davis.
But if Davis pulls this one out, all bets are off for those depending on Norman’s help next year – including Comptroller and mayoral candidate Alan Hevesi.
* Martin Malave-Dilan, a third-term city councilman, is taking on Assemblyman Darryl Towns in Brooklyn.
If Malave-Dilan is successful in ousting an entrenched incumbent – and the son of Rep. Ed Towns – other Council members facing term limits and sitting on the sidelines could be emboldened to follow in his steps.
* Members of Congress don’t lose too many elections, so Una Clarke is the underdog in her challenge to Rep. Major Owens in Brooklyn. Clarke, who comes from Jamaica, is counting heavily on Caribbean-American votes to propel her past Owens.
Watch the turnout of a potential new power base in the city – immigrant voters.
The only mayoral contender who’s taken a position in the race is Public Advocate Mark Green, who’s backing Clarke and stands to benefit if she topples Owens.