Rick Lazio is clinging to a slim lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton as their Senate contest enters the final stretch – and has held strong with crucial Catholic and upstate voters, a new Post poll shows.
The statewide poll shows Lazio leading 47.4 percent to 45.1 percent among likely voters – but with a 4-point margin of error, the race remains a statistical tie that’s “too close to call,” pollster John Zogby said.
The new numbers show that both candidates have picked up support with the crucial pool of undecided voters after nearly round-the-clock campaigning.
Zogby’s last Post poll, on Oct. 19, showed Lazio leading, 43 to 42 – also a virtual dead heat.
While Clinton has picked up new support among Jewish voters, Lazio has countered with a boost among Catholics, upstaters and suburbanites.
“Basically, what you have here is a very close race – too close to call,” Zogby said.
“When all is said and done, [it’s] probably a 1-point race. But the dynamic between the last poll and now is that the undecideds have begun to break, and . . . they’ve broken toward Lazio.”
Zogby said the numbers are important for Lazio, and said they reflect the GOP candidate breaking out of being “just the anti-Hillary.”
“Upstate, he’s picked up the lion’s share of undecided [voters],” Zogby said. “That is what he’ll need to [balance out]” her overwhelming support in the Big Apple.”
Some recent surveys by other pollsters have also shown the race virtually tied; others show Clinton with a lead of up to 7 points over Lazio. The latest Zogby poll shows that Lazio is ahead upstate, 53 percent to 39 percent.
That means Lazio has managed to maintain the recent support he’s received in the Republican stronghold, where Clinton had been gaining ground, although the Democratic candidate has gained 7 points there since the last poll.
Also, after stumping heavily for Catholic votes, Lazio has a wide lead over Clinton with that voting bloc, 59 percent to 34 percent.
The poll of 613 likely voters, taken Thursday through yesterday, also shows Lazio making inroads in the suburbs, 56 to 34. In the last poll, he led by just 6 points.
However, Clinton has picked up undecided Jewish voters and has a commanding lead over Lazio, 69 percent to 27 percent – a gain from the last poll, when she had 60 percent.
The gain came despite a week fending off questions about accepting donations from a group that reportedly supports Palestinian violence against Israel.