Now that the dust has settled from this year’s topsy-turvy presidential election, we take a look ahead at the national political scene for 2001.
WASHINGTON — The gods of politics appear to have conspired to make governing a challenge for George W. Bush — and to make 2001 a year worth watching for political junkies.
First, there was what amounted to a 36-day election night, which left little time for Bush to form a transition team, designate a Cabinet, prepare for an inauguration and start building a coalition in Congress.
Second, there is a narrow Republican majority of nine votes in the House and one vote in the Senate — and that’s when you count Vice President-elect Dick Cheney’s ability to break a 50-50 tie in the Senate.
Third, there’s a case to be made that Bush has the weakest of mandates. After all, he lost the popular vote to Al Gore, and many hardened Democrats believe he was effectively handed the White House by the five conservative justices on the U.S. Supreme Court.
All of these things mean that Bush’s big campaign proposals, such as his $1.3 trillion tax cut, aren’t automatic. Skillful maneuvering is going to be required to get them passed, and it remains to be seen if Bush is up to the task.
“Every president is on the high wire and juggling lots of balls. This president is on a thinner wire and has more balls to juggle,” said Larry Sabato, a political-science professor at the University of Virginia.
Whether Bush can overcome all obstacles before him and work with the slim GOP majority in Congress — while drawing Democrats on board, as he did in Texas — is going to be the political story of the year.
Already, there have been the predictable complaints about Bush from far-left Democrats and far-right Republicans.
“This president, because of the very unique way he entered office, won’t have the traditional honeymoon. He’s got to keep the right happy, but make Democrats believe he’s working from the center out,” Sabato said.
“He may have a period of time when he can get things done. But when does that window shut? Will he be able to move through the summer and into the fall with a legislative program before the 2002 campaigns inevitably get geared up?”
If Bush can’t get it done — and if the Democrats refuse to help him — the public might not be patient.
“Will the American people give this president a chance? Or, will they try to bring down the curtain before the first act?” Sabato wondered.
At stake are: Bush’s tax cut; his education plan calling for mandatory testing and private-school vouchers in failed school systems; his proposal to privatize part of Social Security; and his plan for a missile-defense system and revitalizing the military.
Bush has already made the rounds of Capitol Hill, displaying his famous charm in one-on-one chats with key Democrats and Republicans, yet insisting that he won’t back down from core issues, such as tax cuts.
He’s interviewed Democrats for Cabinet spots, designated African-Americans Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice to be, respectively, secretary of state and national security adviser, and met with black religious leaders to try to stem the anger that many African-Americans feel about the way the election was decided.
He’s also started to woo the emerging new power players in Washington: the conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans who make up the vital center on which Bush will have to rely if he wants a working majority in Congress.
They include Democrats like Sen. John Breaux of Louisiana and Rep. Charles Stenholm of Texas, a leader of the conservative Blue Dog coalition in the House.
They’re Republicans like Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine and Rep. Mike Castle of Delaware, leader of a group of moderate GOPers known as the “Tuesday Group.”
In the Senate, these so-called centrists number about 26. In the House, there are more than 70. If extremists in both parties bail out on Bush, simple math says the centrists must be there for anything to pass.
“If you want to get anything done, these people are required to make it happen,” said congressional scholar Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute.
Breaux, who met with Bush at his Texas ranch, is expected to be a leader on Medicare reform. And Cheney has already met with Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.), who was Al Gore’s running mate, about backing Bush’s education plan.
Rep. Peter King (R-L.I.), who has been unafraid to buck his own party’s leadership, said Bush would be wise to get the conservative Democrats to fall behind his marriage-penalty tax-relief bill.
“It will give the appearance that he can function,” King said.
But King also said Bush must be clear-eyed and not fall for the misleading line that partisanship is dead.
“Bush may be wrong to think that because [bipartisanship] worked in Texas, it’s going to work here,” King said. “They’re different Democrats in Texas. The spectrum goes from the center to the right there. In Washington, you’ve got a far left, a left, a left of center.”
Of course, there are chances that Bush will be dealt a wild card, such as a foreign-policy crisis or an economic recession.
One negative sign is that President Clinton’s supporters have already put into motion the spin that they shouldn’t be blamed for any upcoming recession. They claim that by merely talking about the possibility of a recession, the Bush team is causing it.
Sabato does sees one small bright cloud for Bush in a minor recession or economic slowdown. He predicts it would help him pass his tax cut.