NOW is a good time to look back at the land slide win that sent Ronald Reagan to the White House in 1980, because lots of analysts think 2004 could turn out the same way – close for a long time and then suddenly breaking wide open.
In 1980, the break came just days before the vote, when Democrat Jimmy Carter finally agreed to debate. Reagan came off as sunny instead of scary and when he admonished Carter with a smile, “There you go again,” it was all over.
Like President Bush, Carter faced voters nervous over both the economy and foreign policy and wondering whether it’s time for a change – in Carter’s case, skyrocketing inflation at home plus the endless Iran hostage crisis.
But there’s a big difference, since Carter kept getting bad news on both fronts, while Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq, with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.
Asked how John Kerry will deal with the fact that Bush now has broad international support on Iraq, U.S. casualties are down and the new government seems pro-American and grateful, a Kerry adviser tried to claim credit – for Kerry.
“This is all because Bush is finally adopting John Kerry’s strategy of reaching out to the international community,” insisted this adviser. With a straight face.
All of this could explain why the Iowa political futures market – an intriguing online measure that lets anyone buy “stock” in a candidate and has a solid record in predicting elections – is bullish on Bush.
The Iowa market (www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem) has predicted a Bush victory ever since Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination last winter – yesterday it was predicting a Bush win with 51.9 percent of the vote to Kerry’s 47.4.
(p. 23 in metro)