PEYTON Manning had been virtually perfect through the first two playoff games when he led the Colts into the AFC Championship game at Foxboro last January. Four quarters and four INTs later, the Patriots were headed to Houston, where they would capture their second Super Bowl title in three years.
If you believe the cold, snow and mugging (now not allowed) by the Pats’ DBs were what did in Manning that day, you’ll surely jump on these 3 points. But if you trust in Bill Belichick, as this column does religiously (last season the vow was to never again pick against him), then you stick with New England long enough to see what Charlie Weis can do teaming Tom Brady with true breakaway threat Corey Dillon.
Thepick:Patriots-3.
SUNDAY JETS (-4) over Bengals
With all the emphasis Herman Edwards placed on finally getting off to a fast start, and with an aggressive new defense juiced up with speed at linebacker, there’s really no excuse for the Jets to falter at home vs. Cincy’s first-time-starting QB Carson Palmer. Fans will put heat on Paul Hackett if they see drives killed by boring play calls.
Giants (+9) over EAGLES
Donovan McNabb’s never had a weapon like Terrell Owens, but then again, his ground game’s never been this thin. Eagles lost first two home games last season, but Andy Reid again chose not to play any starters in final preseason game. Giants are headed for long year, but until time comes that they start mailing it in, you have to respect Tiki, Toomer, Shockey and Co. getting big points.
DOLPHINS (+3) over Titans
After Ricky Williams’ retirement, David Boston’s injury and the distractions of hurricanes, there is a lot of well-placed pessimism surrounding the Dolphins. Still, it’s hard to pass them up as September home dogs, even against Steve McNair.
STEELERS (-4) over Raiders
Who’d have thought Raiders and Steelers would ever combine for just 10 wins? Tight pick, but expect Tommy Maddox to get rolling right away with Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress, while it could take Rich Gannon some time to perfect Norv Turner’s schemes.
REDSKINS (-2) over Bucs
Joe Gibbs gets to call Clinton Portis’ number in coach’s return to the Redskins, and Portis should make things happen against a Bucs D which no longer features Warren Sapp and John Lynch.
Ravens (-3) over BROWNS
Ravens’ linebackers will be all over rookie TE Kellen Winslow, and the arrival of Jeff Garcia and an ailing Lee Suggs don’t significantly upgrade the Browns in those slots. Butch Davis is in trouble.
Jaguars (+3) over BILLS
Jaguars became a tough opponent toward the end of last season. Now, Byron Leftwich, with a season behind him, takes aim at a Buffalo D that will be without Lawyer Milloy in Mike Mularkey’s debut.
BEARS (-3) over Lions
New Chicago coach Lovie Smith teams ex-Dolphin Adewale Ogunleye with Brian Urlacher. Thomas Jones bolsters ground game, but Bears left themselves thin at WR when they traded Marty Booker to Miami. Lions have lost NFL record 24 in row on road.
RAMS (-11) over Cards
When Anquan Boldin returns to play opposite Larry Fitzgerald in October, Dennis Green’s new team will have a chance to compete. For now, Cards’ roster reads like that of a replacement team from the ’80s. Huge opener for Marc Bulger.
Seahawks (-2) over SAINTS
Hawks were bad on road in ’03, but should have won playoff game at Lambeau. If Mike Holmgren’s team is the Super Bowl contender many predict it to be, they should be able to get by the high-octane yet undisciplined Saints.
TEXANS (-4 1/2) over Chargers
Yes, Texans have won two games in their two-year history by five or more points. But they are 2-0 in openers, beating Dallas and Miami. Key here is CBs Dunta Robinson and Aaron Glenn shutting down San Diego WRs Eric Parker and Tim Dwight, giving Houston D a chance to tee off on La-Dainian Tomlinson.
Cowboys (+4 1/2) over VIKINGS
Bill Parcells’ big additions, Vinny Testaverde, Keyshawn Johnson and Eddie George, would have looked better in 1998. Still have to like Tuna getting more than FG in opener.
Falcons (-3 1/2) over 49ERS
The 49ers are that bad. Falcons coach Jim Mora Jr. knows his old San Fran D inside and out, and that knowledge will lead to a big first week for Michael Vick.
Chiefs (+3) over BRONCOS
Denver seemingly brought in DBs Champ Bailey and John Lynch primarily for the two games vs. KC. But sacrificing Clinton Portis could prove too high a price. Chiefs, one of AFC favorites, have brutal schedule, so win here is paramount.
MONDAY NIGHT PANTHERS (-3) over Packers
Haven’t seen too many experts picking a return trip to the Super Bowl for the Panthers, and can’t understand it. They still have great mix of defensive studs and big-play offensive players, and a coach who will have them ready from the first play of Week 1.
BEST BETS: Ravens, Texans, Redskins.